Transcript Expectations for Success - UCI School of Education

Give Us This Day
our Daily Breadth
Greg J. Duncan
Department of Education
University of California, Irvine
Learning from the masters:
Tom Juster
Jim Morgan
Jeanne Brooks-Gunn
“The economist who
is only an economist
is likely to become a
nuisance if not a
positive danger.”
- Frederick von Hayek
Rat demand curve for root beer
Kagel et al., 1975
I say: “noncognitive skill”
You
feel:
To create is to
recombine
- Francois Jacob
Parallel play
Associative play
Cooperative
play
A Mediated Model of Family Poverty
Purchased inputs
Cognitive stimulation in the
home
Type and quality of child care
Quality of schools and
neighborhood
Child/
Adolescent
outcomes
Attainment
Child
Poverty
Family processes
Maternal mental health
Parenting
Socioemotional
behavior
Executive function
Increase in completed schooling associated with
a $3,000 annual increase in income
Duncan, Brooks-Gunn, Yeung and Smith, 1998
Increase in age 25-37 earnings associated with a
$3,000 annual increase in income
Duncan, Ziol-Guest & Kalil, 2010
Increase in age 25-37 earnings associated with a
$3,000 annual increase in income
Duncan, Ziol-Guest & Kalil, 2010
Regression-adjusted associations
with early family income
Adult earnings (+)
p<.05
Arrests
Non-marital birth
ns
ns
Adult work hours (+)
p<.01
Adult obesity (-)
Adult hypertension (-)
Adult arthritis (-)
p<.05
p<.05
p<.05
Duncan, Ziol-Guest & Kalil, 2010
A Mediated Model of Family Poverty
Purchased
inputs
Child/
Adolescent
outcomes
Attainment
Childhood
Poverty
Socioemotional
behavior
Parenting
Executive
function
A Mediated Model of Family Poverty
Child/
Adolescent
outcomes
Early
poverty
Early
fetal/child
stress
Early brain
development
Stress and
immune
function
Adult
outcomes
Ability to
sustain full
time careers
Health
Macrosystem
Political
system ҉
҉ Culture
Exosystem
Mesosystem
Mass
media ҉
҉ Community
Microsystem
Peers ҉
The
Child
҉ Family
҉
҉
Economy
Economy
Bronfenbrenner,
1979
҉
҉
Policy
Policy
High and low family incomes, 1947-2008
Achievement gaps by race and income, by birth year
Income gap based on various national
surveys
EITC payments for family with
2+ children
1996
1993
Earned income
Effects of EITC expansion on children’s test
scores and mothers’ health
# bad
CRP ≥ 0.3
mental
mg/Dl
health days
Children
Dahl and Lochner, 2009; Evans and Garthwaite, 2009
Mothers
The case for breadth
World living standards, 1-2008 AD
$8,000
$7,000
GDP per person
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
0
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Year
Ideas having sex with
other ideas…
The history of the modern
world is a history of ideas
meeting, mixing, mating
and mutating
Matt Ridley, 2010
The Rational Optimist
2012 Theme meetings in
Tampa Bay
February 9-11, 2012
•
Developmental methodology
•
Positive development
October 18-20, 2012
•
Emerging adulthood
To create is to recombine
- Francois Jacob