Transcript Figure 1: Annual US GDP Growth Compared to Western Europe

Center for Strategic and International Studies
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TRENDS IN U.S. POLITICS FOR THE NEXT
FOUR YEARS
A DAY OF RECKONING FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY?
Dr. Sidney Weintraub
Madrid, SPAIN
February 28, 2005
Figure 1: United States Annual GDP Growth Compared to
Western Europe
United States
Western Europe
5
4.5
4
Percentage Growth
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
Year
Source: HSBC, “Global Economics”, January 6, 2005, p28
2004
2005f
2006f
Figure 2: United States Fiscal Deficit
-350
Actual 2003
Projected 2004
-360
in Billions of US dollars
-370
-380
-390
-400
-410
-420
-430
Year
Source: The Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook:
September 2004 and January 2005
Note: Estimates omit a significant amount of future spending that may and will occur
Projected 2005
Figure 3: United States Total Mandatory Spending
(% of GDP)
11.2
11.1
Percentage
11
10.9
10.8
10.7
10.6
10.5
Actual 2004
Projected 2005
Projected 2006
Projected 2007
Total 2006-2010
Year
Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2006 to 2015
Total 2011-2015
Figure 4: United States Current Account Deficit (% of GDP)
7
6
Percentage
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
Year
Source: HSBC, “Global Economics”, January 6, 2005
2004f
2005f
2006f
Figure 5: United States Current Account
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004f
2005f
2006f
-100
in billions of US dollars
-200
-300
-400
-386
-413
-474
-500
-530
-600
-653
-700
-730
-768
-800
-900
Year
Source: HSBC, “Global Economics,” January 6, 2005, p44; and IMF: International Financial Statistics (accessed on
January 12, 2005)
Table 1: Selected Exchange rates vis-à-vis US dollar
End of Period:
Western Europe euro
British pound
Japanese yen
Chinese yuan
S. Korea won
Canadian dollar
Mexican peso
Source: HSBC, “Global Economics,” January 6, 2005, p. 34
2001
2004(f)
2005(e)
0.89
1.46
131
8.28
1324
1.6
9.16
1.36
1.92
102
8.28
1035
1.2
11.15
1.4
1.87
98
8.28
1020
1.15
11.9
Figure 6: United States Net Foreign Liabilities (end of year)
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
in Billions of current US dollars
-500
-1000
-1388.7
-1500
-1889.7
-2000
-2233
-2430.6
-2500
-3000
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Figure 7: United States Mandatory Spending for
Social Security
8000
7000
in Billions of US dollars
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Social Security
0
Actual 2004
Projected 2005
Projected 2006
Projected 2007
Total 2006-2010
Year
Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2006 to 2015
Total 2011-2015
Figure 8. United States Mandatory Spending for Medicare
6000
Amount in Billions of US dollars
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Medicare
0
Actual 2004
Projected 2005
Projected 2006
Projected 2007
Total 2006-2010
Year
Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2006 to 2015
Total 2011-2015
Figure 9: United States Mandatory Spending for Medicaid
3000
Amount in Billions of US dollars
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Actual 2004
Medicaid
Projected 2005
Projected 2006
Projected 2007
Total 2006-2010
Year
Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2006 to 2015
Total 2011-2015