Transcript Estimating the Impact of the Green Economy on Jobs in

Urbanisation and Development
in the BRICS
Prof Ivan Turok
Human Sciences Research Council
South Africa
BRICS Urbanisation Forum, November 27th 2013
Context
1.
Widespread ambivalence about urbanisation
2.
Seen as a demographic issue
3.
And a source of social problems
4.
Advocates see it as social justice/rights issue
5.
Few link it to development
2
Definitions
Urbanisation: Net shift in population to
urban areas
 Migration
 Natural change
Development: Broad-based prosperity
Economic development (GDP per capita)
Human development (well-being, life
expectancy, education)
Inclusive development – economic participation
3
The relationship between urbanisation
and development
1. Urbanisation as an effect of industrialisation
• Population following jobs & incomes
2. Urbanisation contributes to development
1. Larger labour supply, lower wage costs, more
productive workforce
2. Stronger consumption for urban lifestyles
3. Entrepreneurial dynamism from density/diversity
4. Economies of scale in public goods
5
The rediscovery of cities: theory
Industrial
transition
Globalisation
Agglomeration
advantages: size,
density, diversity …
Population =
labour &
consumers
Technology,
knowledge
Green
transition
Productivity
and innovation
Jobs and
incomes
Analytical framework
Urban population
90
Overurbanisation
75
60
45
30
Growth
without
urbanisation
15
0
100
1000
GDP per Capita
10000
The context of the BRICS, 1985-2011
Asia 1985-2011
South America 1985-2011
Africa 1985-2011
Life expectancy, 1985-2011
95
Argentina Uruguay
Venezuela
Chile
90
85
80
Peru
Brazil
Mexico
Percentage Urbanisation
75
Panama
70
Ecuador
Colombia
65
60
55
65
Jamaica
55
Paraguay
45
50
35
60
65
70
75
80
Life Expectancy
80
Republic of Korea
70
Malaysia
Percentage Urbanisation
40
45
Cameroon
Liberia
40
35
Nigeria
Guinea
-Bissau
30
Fiji
Zimbabwe
Madagascar
Kenya
20
Ethiopia
10
China
50
Ghana
25
15
60
Percentage Urbanisation
South Africa
60
50
Uganda
Malawi
5
Philippines
0
40
Thailand
Indonesia
40
Vietnam
30
45
50
55
60
Life Expectancy
Source: World Development Indicators
20
10
0
55
60
65
70
Life Expectancy
75
80
85
65
Relationship depends on:
Policy stance towards urbanisation:
1.
Positive urban planning and management
2.
Basic services – healthy, productive workforce
3.
Infrastructure – congestion, energy and water
supply
4.
Supply of land for housing
and economic activities
12
China
1.
Anti-urbanisation until 1980s
2.
Remarkable state-driven industrialisation
3.
Explosive export-led growth, poverty reduction
4.
Rural-urban migration depressed labour costs
5.
Local experimentation & incentives via land
6.
Financed major infrastructure & building progs
7.
Urbanisation now seen as key to rebalancing
8.
Residence permits (hukou) for rural migrants
13
India
1.
Colonial legacy of backward economy
2.
Segregated cities for the few
3.
Persistent anti-urbanism, slum clearance
4.
1991 liberalisation reforms – urban economic
growth, new middle class, IT service industries
5.
Global city ideas, amenities, segregation
6.
Massive rural poverty
14
Brazil
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
State-sponsored industrialisation (importsubstitution) from 1930s caused urbanisation
Self-reinforcing dynamic gathered pace
State investment in transport, communications
and industrialisation bolsters urbanisation
Anti-urban policies from 1960s – restrictions
Makeshift settlements in hazardous locations
Late 1980s new urban policy, democracy,
decentralisation, innovation
15
Russia
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Large-scale state-driven industrialisation &
urbanisation based on heavy industries - 1920s
Specialisation: single industry cities for militaryindustrial complex and basic consumer goods
Centralised planning dispersed jobs and popn
Disintegration of Soviet Union in 1990 exposed
cities and industries to market forces
Losers – industrial cities in N and E
Winners – Moscow and some others in W & S
16
South Africa
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Mining and industrialisation drove urbanisation
from late 19th century
Based on cheap labour, circular migration
Post-war anti-urbanisation and oppressive
controls, segregation, exclusion, removals
Narrow ideology vs economic imperative
1980s collapse and crisis, urbanisation rebound
Physical and psychological legacy
Ambivalence towards urbanisation and shacks
17
Total urban and rural population
Concentrated economic activity
Better alignment: population versus jobs
growth (2001-2011)
Evidence: employment rate
55
50
Urban
formal
Employment rate (%)
45
40
35
Urban
informal
30
25
20
Rural
15
10
Year and quarter
21
But poorer quality jobs: Monthly incomes
22
More precarious jobs
23
Lessons
1. Industrialisation powerful driver of urbanisation
2. Urbanisation can help fuel the process of devt.
3. More effective with productive, healthy, stable
4.
•
•
•
workforce and active consumers
Dependent on positive attitude towards inclusive
urbanisation:
access to land, infrastructure, housing
pro-active planning for efficient urban form
reinvestment from growth
25
Thank you!