Transcript Slide 1

Energy policies and management
of carbon balance in Estonia
Olga Gavrilova, Tiina Randla, Raivo Vilu
Tallinn University of Technology
Climate change is one of the greatest concerns for
the global community
Overheating of Earth is a real danger
The goal of UNFCCC is ‘stabilization of
Greenhouse Gases concentrations in the
atmosphere at the level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate change’
The commitments of Kyoto protocol extend this
to ‘achieving of emission limitation and
reduction, and protection and enhancement of
GHG sinks and reservoirs’
Estonia is an Annex B country of Kyoto Protocol, Estonia has
an obligation to reduce CO2 emissions 8% by
2008-2012 in comparison with 1990
20 million tons of oil shale was extracted and used in
1990
10-12 million tons of oil shale has been extracted and used in
1994-2003
1 ton of CO2 is emitted per 1 ton of oil shale on burning
Estonian oil shale enterprises have the right to sell “hot air” for
more than €60 million
The price of 1 ton of CO2 quota was yesterday €23
The resources for electricity
generation, 2003
Other, 2.2%
Wind, 0.0%
Hydro, 0.1%
Natural gas,
5.0%
Shale oil,
0.3%
Oil Shale,
92.2%
Efficiency of electricity production
from oil shale
40
35
35,373
Efficiency of
electricity generation
30
TWh
25
14%
20
15
10
5,068
5
0
Oil shale resource consumption
Electricity consumption by end-users
Energy intensity of the economy, kgoe (kilogram of oil
equivalent) per 1000 Euro (at constant prices, 1995=100)
0
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Czech Rep.
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Turkey
UK
kg CO2/GDP (2000$)
3.5
3
2.5
0.7
2
0.6
0.5
1.5
0.4
1
0.3
0.5
0.2
0.1
CO2/ GDP
CO2 / GDP (PPP)
0
kg CO2/PPP (2000$)
CO2 emission per GDP of countries of
European Union, 2003
1
0.9
0.8
However, oil shale industry in Estonia is
thriving currently
Especially after the price of oil barrel exceeded
$50
Estonia is the only offshore territory for oil
shale industry in the world
In this economical and political conditions we
are discussing
(oil shale)
energy policies…
Renewable resources of energy in
Estonia
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Wood
Straw etc non-wooden biomass
Biogas
Wastes
Solar energy
Wind energy
Water energy
(Peat)
5.5-14 TWh/a
2-13 TWh/a
max 0.4 TWh/a
0.1-3 TWh/a
2.2 TWh/a
2.7–4 TWh/a
0.4 TWh/a
5.3 TWh/a
Current (end-)use of energy in Estonia
~10 TWh/a
Future of energy sector in Estonia will depend on
the EU and global post-Kyoto policies
Carbon accounting in Estonia
according to IPCC rules, 2002
Emission / Sequestration
CO2, Gg
Net emission of greenhouse gases CO2 equivalent
10,938
Total emission of carbon dioxide
8,726
…of carbon dioxide from fuel combustion
16,971
…of carbon dioxide from industrial processes
319
...total removal of CO2
-8,564
due to changes in forest biomass
-5,285
due to changes in other woody biomass stock
-2,311
due to CO2 emissions and removals from soil
-967.0
The aim of our research
to consider land use related Carbon Flow Analysis (CFA) in
• Forestry
• Agriculture
– Arable land;
– Husbandry;
to compare it with the current carbon flows, which are
estimated in Estonian GHG inventory;
to evaluate readiness of statistical system of Estonia for
introduction of full CFA based on GIS-mapping as a
prerequisite of full carbon trade;
The land area by different types of land use in Estonia,
thousands ha, 2003
CORINE
1:100 000
Basic map
1:10 000
Land Cadastre
1: 2000
ESO
Forest
2,093
2,216
2,267
Wetlands
193.7
321.8
267.5
Agricultural land
1,476
1,263
1,345
829
…Arable land
845
1,020
974
545
…Grassland
632
244
371
267
Differences between the Basic map and forest
map from Estonian Centre of Forest Protection
and Silviculture (CFPS)
Forest land on Basic map
Forest land on CFPS map
Carbon cycle of arable land
1.1.1
1
Crops
1,517
Manure
11
Export / Import
Grain, Fruit
2.1
2
Stalks
Leaves
Roots
563
Stock
1
3
1.1.2
respiration
burning
3.1
Waste
6
1,537
Human
65
1,434
Industry
9
Seed
28
3.1
Humus
131
Products
Animals
3.3
3.2
6
Residues
93
4
66,800
Stock 2
subsoil
4
5.1
19,600
Calculated CO2 flows according to
IPCC rules and our data
Emission / Sequestration, Gg
CO2
CO2
IPCC
This paper
Total emission of carbon dioxide
8,726
13,477
- of carbon dioxide from fuel combustion and industrial
processes
17,290
17,290
- total removal of CO2
-8,564
-3,813
due to changes in terrestrial biomass
-7,596
-14,318
…CO2 sequestration by terrestrial biomass
-18,197
-15,600
…CO2 emission from terrestrial biomass (felling)
10,601
719
due to emission from crops residues
563
due to CO2 emission and removals from wetlands
-396
10,505
due to CO2 emissions and removals from soil
-571
?
A proposal: start CO2 trade also inside the
countries and include beside CO2 emission
also CO2 sequestration
This will give a new perspective to the
agriculture
Both, forest and arable land could
sequester more than 2 tons of carbon
per ha per year
Carbon accounting and economics
Forest land
2300
Arable land
1200
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
400
1988
1500
1983
600
1978
1700
1992
800
1990
1900
1980
1000 ha
1000
1973
1000 ha
2100
The change of forest and arable lands in Estonia during the last 30 years
What decisions were behind of these land
use changes (annual increase of CO2
sequestration by about 5.4 Gg): economical
or (and) ecological?
If carbon has monetary value, every
decision about land use change
should be taken balancing
economical (ecological services,
including carbon sequestration) and
ecological (biodiversity)
accounts
Carbon Flows Accounting and
Economical Mechanisms should
function simultaneously
• for the control and optimization of the
processes leading to local and global
‘enhancement (of) GHG sinks and
reservoirs’ and
• use of renewable resources
(biomass, wastes etc.)