Transcript Title presentation - BASIC

FAIR 2.1
Tool for analyzing
mitigation
commitments and
costs of
countries/regions
for different post2012 regimes
Michel den Elzen, the Netherlands
Environmental Assessment Agency,
associated with RIVM
Overview
•
Part 1: General
•
Part 2: FAIR 2.1 region
•
Part 3: FAIR 2.1 country
•
Part 4:“South-North dialogue” proposal compatible with
2oC quantification
•
Part 4: Conclusions
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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Part 1:
General
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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Objective FAIR 2.0
• To explore and evaluate the environmental and
abatement costs implications of possible future
international climate policy regimes for differentiation of
mitigation commitments
• The model is not made to promote any particular regime,
but to allow for comparing regimes in consistent and
transparent way
• NB:
– Developed to support long-term policy development, but also used for
analysing near-term policy issues
– Developed to support Dutch climate policy, but used / available for other
Parties as well.
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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Features of FAIR
• Contents:
– links “differentiation of commitments” to “adequacy of
commitments
– based on established science (IPCC)
– includes many proposed regimes options
– includes emission trading and costs
• Form:
–
–
–
–
PC computer model
geographical user interface
relatively simple to use
Interactive
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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Some proposals for climate change regimes
– Brazilian Proposal (Brazil / RIVM)*
– Multi-criteria (CICERO)
* Green = included in
FAIR 2.0
– Multi-stage (RIVM)*
– Contraction & Convergence (Global Commons Institute)*
– Global Compromise (Benito Müller)*
– Multi-Sector Convergence (ECN/Cicero)
– (global) Triptych approach (UU)*
– South-North proposal
– (Convergence in) Emission-Intensities (targets)*
– Growth cap index (Ellerman, M IT)
– Jacoby rule (ability to pay) (MIT)*
– Soft landing (IEPE)
– Sectoral commitments / sectoral CDM
den Elzen, Countries’
mitigation commitments
the “South-North
–MichelSD-PAMs
(University
ofunder
Cape
Town)dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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FAIR model versions
• Strategy: different models for different target groups
• General Public: web model version:
aims: orientation on the issue / education / capacity building
conditions: for free; no commercial use; no technical support; no
publications without consent RIVM
– Policy Advisors: full model version (no access to code)
aim: support other Parties in policy analysis
conditions: on a case by case basis; licence agreement; limited support;
no commercial use; no publication without consent RIVM
– Research institutes: full model (access to code)
aim: co-development of the model; scientific analysis / publications
conditions: selected network partner; collaboration agreement;
contribution to development of model; no commercial use
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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Part 1:
FAIR 2.0 model
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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FAIR 2.0 model
Global emission
profile
Global emission
profile
DATASETS
CLIMATE MODEL
Climate assessment
model
Historical
emissions
Global emission reduction objective
Baseline
scenario
Emissions
profile
EMISSIONS ALLOCATION MODEL
Multi-stage
approach
Per capita
Convergence
Brazilian
Proposal
emission intensity
system
Triptych
approach
Regional emissions targets
EMISSION TRADE & COST MODEL
MACs
Mitigation costs &
Emissions trade
Regional GHG emissions after trade
Abatement costs & permit price
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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Datasets FAIR 2.0- internet version
• Historical emissions (1765-1995):
– CDIAC (only CO2)
– EDGAR/HYDE (all non-CO2 GHGs)
• Baseline scenario
– IMAGE 2.2 IPCC SRES scenarios
– IMAGE-POLES scenario
• Emission profiles
– two global GHG emission profiles (550 CO2-eq and 650 CO2-eq.)
• Marginal Abatement Costs (MAC) curves
– MACs CO2: energy model (TIMER 1.0 - IMAGE)
– MACs non-CO2: GECS (European Commission)
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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FAIR 2.0 model
Global emission
profile
Global emission
profile
DATASETS
CLIMATE MODEL
Climate assessment
model
Historical
emissions
Global emission reduction objective
Baseline
scenario
Emissions
profile
EMISSIONS ALLOCATION MODEL
Multi-stage
approach
Per capita
Convergence
Brazilian
Proposal
emission intensity
system
Triptych
approach
Regional emissions targets
EMISSION TRADE & COST MODEL
MACs
Mitigation costs &
Emissions trade
Regional GHG emissions after trade
Abatement costs & permit price
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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Multi-Stage approach
Multi-stage Approach (RIVM):
a gradual increase in the number of Parties involved and their
level of commitment according to participation and
differentiation rules
Berk and den Elzen (2001), Climate Policy
Four stages (for non-Annex I):
Stage 1. No constraint
Stage 2. Intensity targets (threshold 1)
Stage 3. Stabilisation emissions (threshold 2)
Stage 4. Emission reduction targets (Annex I)
Policy choices:
 Threshold options: per capita income, per capita emissions
 Stabilisation period
 Burden-sharing options: income, emissions, per capita
emissions/income, etc.
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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Multi-Stage approach
Gradual participation and different type of commitments
• Example for S550e:
–
–
–
–
threshold 1: 20% ’90 Annex I per capita income
threshold 2: 50% ‘90 Annex I per capita income
5-year stabilisation emissions
contribution to reductions using burden-sharing key p.c. emissions
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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FAIR 2.0 model
Global emission
profile
Global emission
profile
DATASETS
CLIMATE MODEL
Climate assessment
model
Historical
emissions
Global emission reduction objective
Baseline
scenario
Emissions
profile
EMISSIONS ALLOCATION MODEL
Multi-stage
approach
Per capita
Convergence
Brazilian
Proposal
emission intensity
system
Triptych
approach
Regional emissions targets
EMISSION TRADE & COST MODEL
MACs
Mitigation costs &
Emissions trade
Regional GHG emissions after trade
Abatement costs & permit price
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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Abatement costs model
• Function:
1.To calculate abatement costs (multi-gas)
2.To calculate the buyers and sellers on the international permit
market
3.To distribute the global emission reduction objective over the
different regions, gases and sectors following a least-cost
approach, making use of the flexible Kyoto mechanisms.
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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Methodology
• on the basis of Marginal Abatement Cost curves
(MAC): 6 GHGs, 11 sectors and 17 world regions;
• MAC curves only represent direct costs, there is
no direct link to GDP losses
• Assumption is made of international emission
trading: full trading in case regions participate;
limited trading for non-participants (CDM)
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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Costs as % of GDP 550 CO2-eq vs. 650 CO2-eq.
Example:
• S550e leads to much higher abatement costs than the S650e
(equivalent to 0.4% versus 0.05% of world GDP in 2025)
• Costs are subject to considerable uncertainty (only baseline)
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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Regional costs under C&C 2050 (S550e)
• Buyers and sellers on the market
– India, Africa and China sellers; Rest buyers
• Large differences costs
• Low-income non-Annex I regions gains for most regimes (up to
2%)
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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FAIR website: www.rivm.nl/fair
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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Part 3:
FAIR 2.1 country model
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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Methodology: the FAIR 2.1 country model
Base year data (1990-2000):
• Emissions: CAIT database
• All Kyoto gases, excluding land use change and forestry,
including international transport
New: Future baseline scenarios for countries (population,
GDP and emissions)
• IMAGE IPCC SRES scenarios at 17 regions
• Using an improved downscaling method
• Tries to deal with the limits of present down-scaling methods
Kyoto
• USA implements its national target of 18% improvement in
emissions/GDP until 2012
• Other Annex I countries follow Kyoto target
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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Multi-gas emission pathways meeting 2oC
+40%
+35%
+30%
+20%
+10%
- 5%
-25%
-45%
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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Parameters of “South-North dialogue” proposal
Region
Annex II
Annex I but not
Annex II
Newly
industrialised
countries (NIC)
Rapidly
industrialising
countries RIDC)
Other developing
countries (ODC)
Least developed
countries(LDCs)
Configuration
EU-15: reduce below 1990 level
400 ppm 450 ppm 500 ppm 550 ppm Year
40%
35%
30%
25%
in 2020
Others: reduce below 1990 level
33%
24%
15%
10%
in 2020
Reduction after 2020
Reduce below 1990 level
35%
28%
31%
24%
27%
20%
24%
20%
per decade
in 2020
Reduction after 2020
Increase above 2000 level
38%
30%
32%
30%
24%
30%
21%
20%
per decade
in 2020
Reduction after 2020
Reduce threshold NIC-RIDC
35%
20%
28%
20%
21%
20%
17%
10%
Reduce below reference
16%
13%
10%
10%
per decade
per decade after
2020
in 2020
Reduction below reference
Reduce threshold RIDC-ODC
40%
20%
36%
20%
20%
20%
14%
10%
after 2020
per decade after
2020
Follow reference
Follow reference
Reduction requirements for meeting the different concentration levels
500ppm CO2-eq. is Political Willingness Scenario
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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Groups of regions change in time: 2020
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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Groups of regions change in time: 2030 – 550ppm
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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Groups of regions change in time: 2040 – 550ppm
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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Groups of regions change in time: 2050 – 550ppm
Gradual change towards NICs and RIDCs
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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Change compared to 1990 level in 2020
%-change compared to 1990-level in 2020
60
%-change compared to 1990-level in 2020
250
40
200
20
150
0
100
400 ppm
450 ppm
500 ppm
550 ppm
Baseline
-20
-40
50
0
-50
-60
Annex II Annex I no An I
USA
EU-25
Global
NICs
RIDCs
Other
DCs
LDCs
Global
• In 2020, Annex I emissions need to be reduced ~30-35%
below 1990 levels for 400-450ppm
• For meeting the 400/450 ppm NICs and RIDCs have to
participate in the reductions between 2015 and 2025
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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Change compared to 1990 level in 2050
%-change compared 1990-level in 2050
%-change compared to 1990-level in 2050
700
600
40
20
500
400
300
200
0
-20
-40
-60
100
0
-100
-80
-100
Annex II Annex I no An I
USA
EU-25
Global
NICs
RIDCs
Other
DCs
LDCs
Global
• Note: shown here are the static groups in 2020
• In 2050, NICs have reduction effort comparable with those
of Annex.
• Other DCs and LDCs also have to reduce
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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Reductions compared to baseline 2020 – 550ppm
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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Reductions compared to baseline 2030 – 550ppm
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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Reductions compared to baseline 2040 – 550ppm
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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Reductions compared to baseline 2050 – 550ppm
Differentiated results between
the Annex I and non-Annex I
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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Reductions compared to baseline 2050 – 400ppm
High reductions for the Annex I
and RIDCs and NICs, moderate
reductions OCDs and LDCs
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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Reductions compared to baseline 2050 – 550ppm
Differentiated results between
the Annex I and non-Annex I
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
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Per capita emissions under 400 and 550
ppm CO2-equivalent scenario
tCO2/cap.yr
8
7
6
5
4
CO2-eq. emissions per capita
Annex II 400
Annex I -no An I
NICs
RIDCs
Other DCs
LDCs
USA
EU-25
Global
tCO2/cap.yr
8
7
6
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
1990
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
time (years)
CO2-eq. emissions per capita
Annex II 550
Annex I -no An I
NICs
RIDCs
Other DCs
LDCs
USA
EU-25
Global
2000
2010
2020
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn
2030
2040
2050
time (years)
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