Transcript Linear Regression 1

Economic Globalization 3
Sociology 2, Class 8
Copyright © 2008 by Evan Schofer
Do not copy or distribute without
permission
Announcements
• Agenda
– Midterm review sheet handed out
• Plus info on midterm format
– Today: More on on Economic Globalization
• Floating exchange rates, currency values, and financial crises
• More video
– If time allows; otherwise it will be next Tuesday.
Midterm Info
• Topic coverage:
– All class lecture material
• Lecture notes on course website
– All readings up through Week 5
– Commanding Heights video, Episodes 1 & 3
• Available via course web page…
– Exam Format:
• Closed book / closed notes
• Mix of short answer/multiple choice, medium length, and one
short essay question.
Review: Economic Globalization
• Question: What are some basic things that are
absolutely required in order to have a global
economy?
– 1. Inexpensive transportation & communication
– 2. International financial (money) system
– 3. Countries that are willing to participate
• Removal of legal or regulatory “barriers”
Review: International Financial System
• International transactions require a system to:
• Convert from one currency to another
• Determine appropriate exchange rate
– Examples:
• The Gold Standard
• Bretton Woods
• Floating Exchange rates
Review: Floating Exchange Rates
• The current international monetary system:
floating exchange rates
• Values of currency change with supply and demand
• Changes in currency value affect trade
– If the US$ goes up compared to the Chinese Yuan:
• US consumers can buy Chinese goods more cheaply
– US consumers win
– Chinese exporters “win”
• It is more expensive for Chinese consumers to buy US goods
– Chinese consumers lose
– US Exporters “Lose”.
Floating Exchange Rates
• Why do currency values “float” (change)?
• What forces affect supply and demand?
• 1. Asymmetric trade
• If a country imports more than it exports, its currency drops
• Ex: US has a current accounts deficit with Japan (imports
more than it exports)
• To purchase Japanese goods, Americans must sell dollars, buy
Japanese Yen
– Demand drives up value of Yen relative to the dollar.
Floating Exchange Rates
• What forces affect currency values?
• 2. Asymmetric capital flows
• If capital moves into a country, its currency goes up
– Ex: In early 1990s, global investors moved money into Thailand,
Mexico… raising the value of currency
• If capital moves out of a country, its currency goes down
– Investors feared problems in Mexico, Thailand… pulled money out
– Thai Baht and Mexican Peso dropped in value
Floating Exchange Rates
• What causes asymmetric capital flows?
• 2. a. Interest rates
– If a country raises interest rates, its currency goes up
• Reason: Foreign investors prefer high rates
– The “electronic herd” is attracted to high rates…
– If a country cuts interest rates, its currency drops
• Investors would prefer moving money into countries where
banks pay higher interest…
– Important issue: Globalization limits the ability of
governments to control their own monetary policy
• Ex: The US wants to lower interest rates to boost the
economy… but can’t because it will hurt the US $.
In the News: US Dollar & Interest Rates
• LONDON (AFP) - The dollar plunged to a record low Tuesday
against the euro, which broke through the 1.60-dollar barrier, as the
unit was hit by dismal US housing news and fresh fears over the
health of the US economy.
• Also weighing on the dollar was a comment from the head of the
French central bank, Christian Noyer, highlighting the interest rate
differential between the United States and the eurozone.
• The European Central Bank's benchmark rate, 4.00 percent, is
already substantially higher than that of the US Federal Reserve,
which stands at 2.25 percent. Higher interest rates in the eurozone -and the likelihood that they will not change -- makes the euro a
more attractive investment than the dollar.
• While the Fed is scrambling to galvanize economic momentum and
head of recession by lowering rates, the ECB is focused on curbing
inflation -- currently at 3.6 percent in the eurozone -- and has shown
no inclination to make credit cheaper.
• Issue: Fed can’t lower interest rates without hurting the dollar!
Floating Exchange Rates
• What causes asymmetric capital flows?
• 2. b. Anything else that “scares” investors
• Government instability
• Concern that an economy isn’t going to do well
– Ex: Fears that Thailand was going “bust”
• Policy changes that investors don’t like
– Ex: big increase in taxes
– Shift away from free-market policies (“golden straightjacket”)
• All of these things can cause investors to pull their money out
of a country quickly, harming currency values.
Review: Floating Exchange Rates
• What forces affect currency values?
• 4. Countries can intervene strategically to alter
their currency values
• Governments can sell their currency to lower its value
– They buy other currencies on global markets
• Governments can buy their own currency to raise its value
– They spend “reserves” of gold or other currencies on global markets
• This requires lots of money, so rich countries can do it more.
Trade & Exchange Rates
• Recent news article:
• WASHINGTON (AP) -- America's
beleaguered manufacturing companies,
chafing over the loss of 2.7 million jobs over
the last three years, vowed Wednesday to
press ahead harder to get China to stop
manipulating its currency to gain trade
advantages. (Associated Press)
• Issue: China keeps value of currency low
• Aids exporters, at expense of US companies
Trade & Exchange Rates
• Issue: Countries can strategically alter their
currency values to gain an advantage in trade
• Asymmetric trade with China should cause
Chinese Yuan to rise relative to the US$
• The US imports much more than it exports (trade deficit)
– But: China floods market with Yuan, buys US$
• Yuan value stays low compared to US$
• Result: Chinese exports remain cheap for Americans
• Result: American manufacturing companies = Angry!
• Note: US did a similar thing in the 1970s
• But, it requires lots of $ to do this.
• Thailand was doing it, but ran out of money… it’s currency
suddenly plummeted.
Financial Flows & Exchange Rates
• Issue: Trade & financial flows have same
impact on currencies
• Asymmetrical flows cause currency values to change
– But remember: Investment flows are larger than
trade flows, and they can happen much faster
• Elwood: “pinball capital”
• Result: global investors can cause currency values to
change rapidly
• Called: market volatility (rapid change in value)
• If a currency value falls too low, serious
economic problems arise.
Exchange Rates & Volatility
• Capital flows and resulting currency volatility
can produce severe crises
• Example: Mexico in 1994
– Global investors bought lots of stock, investments in
Mexico over several years…
• This caused a slow rise in the peso. Not a problem.
– A minor political crisis led to panic selling in 1994
• The stock market began to plummet
– Global investors rushed to sell stocks, converted pesos
to dollars
– Result: Selling of pesos made the value of pesos
plummet!
Exchange Rates & Volatility
• Why was it bad for the value of pesos to drop
severely, rapidly?
– 1. Suddenly, imports were very expensive
• Price of gas shot up
• Businesses dependent on imports couldn’t afford costs;
potential for bankruptcies
– 2. Many Mexican companies had borrowed money
from US banks
• US banks must paid in $, not pesos
• If pesos are worth little, suddenly can’t afford to pay loans
• Result: More bankruptcies, economic recession/depression.
Exchange Rates & Volatility
• In the case of the 1994 peso crisis, the US
government stepped in
• Provided emergency loans, etc., to prevent massive
bankruptcy
• But, that was just a small crisis… It is clear that crises
could occur that are too large to stop so easily.
Asian Financial Crisis
• Recall Commanding Heights Video:
• In the 1990s, foreign investors moved capital into Asia
• And, foreign banks lent money to Asian companies at very
low interest rates
– Consequence: Rapid economic growth
• Economies “heated up”
• But, capitalism is prone to boom-bust cycles…
• Companies built more factories and housing than needed
– The “boom” ended
• But – global dynamics made the “bust” much worse!
Asian Financial Crisis
• How did globalization harm Asian economies?
– 1. Investors pulled out quickly – affecting currencies
• Asian currency valued dropped…
• Imports became expensive
• Companies could no longer pay off loans to foreign banks
– Bankruptcies, unemployment…
– 2. Contagion
• Worries about Thailand spread to other Asian countries
– Self-fulfilling prophecy: fear of problems caused investors to pull
out, creating real problems
• Also, many US companies were invested in Asia (or had
made loans)… Now they were losing money
– Integrated economies mean that crises tend to spread…
Capital Flows & the United States
• Krugman article: “Don’t Cry for Me America”
• Explains how investors are starting to pull out of the US
• Results won’t be as dire for us…
– Isn’t happening too quickly
– American companies have loans payable in US$ (if it were Euros,
we’d be in bigger trouble)
• But, still… a serious issue for the US econoomy.
More Video: Commanding Heights
• Topic: Asian financial crisis, spillover to other
regions…