Transcript Document

Transportation and the Economy
2015 Transportation Seminar
Willamette University
January 14, 2015
Dr. Tom Potiowsky
Director, Northwest Economic Research Center
NORTHWEST ECONOMIC RESEARCH CENTER
COLLEGE OF URBAN AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS
PORTLAND STATE UNIVERSITY
TRANSPORT & INVESTMENT
Transport and Infrastructure Investment
American Society of Civil Engineers Report
Source: American Society of Civil Engineers
Reporthttp://www.asce.org/failure_to_act_economic_studies/
Transport and Infrastructure Investment
American Society of Civil Engineers Report
ASCE finds that with an additional investment of $157 billion a year between
now and 2020, the U.S. can eliminate this drag on economic growth and
protect:
•
$3.1 trillion in GDP, almost the equivalent of Germany’s entire GDP
•
$1.1 trillion in U.S. trade value, equivalent to Mexico’s GDP
•
3.5 million jobs, more than the jobs created in the U.S. over the
previous 22 months
•
$2.4 trillion in consumer spending, comparable to Brazil’s GDP
•
$3,100 in annual personal disposable income
Source: American Society of Civil Engineers Report
http://www.asce.org/failure_to_act_economic_studies/
The Circular Flow of the Economy
Source: http://jfvambrosio.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/circular-flow.jpg
A few Important Facts and Trends
From Oregon Transportation Plan 2006
Oregon Department of Transportation Goal: “To promote the expansion and
diversification of Oregon’s economy through the efficient and effective
movement of people, goods, services and information in a safe, energy
efficient and environmentally sound manner.”
•
“Oregon’s transportation system is part of a broader Northwest and
West Coast regional, national and international transportation
system.”
•
“The Portland metropolitan area is the economic hub of the state
with a wide diversity of businesses and key transportation facilities,
Oregon’s economy is dependent on products and services from all
parts of the state.”
Source: Oregon Transportation Plan 2006, Transportation Development Division
Oregon Commodity Flow Forecast
According to ODOT’s Commodity Flow
Forecast from 2009:
• Truck flows dominate with shares of
roughly 72-78%
• All flows remain relatively stable
• Air remains less than .1% in
tonnage, but 6-11% of flows in
terms of value
• It should also be noted that Air
freighting moves high-value products
(such as pharmaceuticals and legal
documents)
Source: Exhibit 2, Commodity Flow Forecast, ODOT 2009
Oregon Commodity Flow Forecast
Source: Exhibit 4, Commodity Flow Forecast, ODOT 2009
Source: Economic Benefits of Oregon Public Ports
Port of Portland:
global & domestic
trading hub
Columbia River Ports:
agriculture, food/beverage
processing, energy, advanced
technology
Coastal Ports:
seafood, wood
products, tourism
Agricultural
Products &
Outdoor
Recreation
Business
& Trade
Inputs
Forest Products &
Outdoor
Recreation
Source: Economic Benefits of Oregon Public Ports
Port of Portland, Portland Harbor
& Port of Vancouver Economic Benefits
• Oregon Ports provide the link between producers (i.e., agriculture,
forest and seafood products) and manufacturing products (i.e.,
electronics, food and energy products) with global and domestic
markets.
• 1 in 6 jobs in Oregon are port-related.
[Oregon Ports Strategic Plan]
• Jobs related to exports pay 20-40% more than average.
[Brookings Institute, 2010 Value of Jobs study]
• Portland Region ranks 4th in U.S. in export value (as share of Metro
output in 2012).
[Brookings Institute, 2013]
Port of Portland, Portland Harbor
& Port of Vancouver Economic Benefits.
Regional analysis (includes Oregon and Washington)
 75,800 total jobs (direct, indirect/induced)
 Output of $7.3 billion
 Labor income of $3.8 billion
 Annual local/state tax payments of $346 million
 Annual federal tax payments of $246 million
 $1 in port tax generates $6 in added local tax payments
Source: Port of Portland
EMPLOYMENT IN TRANSPORT
& OTHER SECTORS
Oregon Industries Return to Pre-Recession Level
Percent Change in Employment Since Jan 2008 through Nov 2014
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Oregon Industries Yet to Fully Recover
Percent Change in Employment Since Jan 2008 through Nov 2014
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Estimated Employment Transportation, Oregon
Employed (January 1990 - Oct 2014)
Source: Oregon Employment Department, Employment and Wages by Industry (QCEW), NERC
Employment by Industry, Oregon
Employed (January 2001 - June 2014)
Source: Oregon Employment Department, Employment and Wages by Industry (QCEW)
Employment by Industry, Oregon
All Employees (January 2001 - June 2014)
Source: Oregon Employment Department, Employment and Wages by Industry (QCEW)
EXPORTS OREGON
Source: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Questions and Discussion