Transcript Slide 1

Rebalancing the UK economy: results and
prospects
John Tomaney
Bartlett School of Planning
University College London,
Based on research being conducted jointly with Andy Pike and Anja McCarthy at Centre for Urban and
Regional Development Studies, Newcastle University
Outline
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The nature of the problem
Rebalancing: diagnosis and proposals
Policy and politics: regionalism to localism
Results and prospects
“…we both want to build a
new economy from the
rubble of the old. We will
support sustainable growth
and enterprise, balanced
across all regions and all
industries”
(David Cameron, Prime Minister, and
Nick Clegg, Deputy Prime Minister,
Foreword, in Cabinet Office (2010: 7)
The Coalition: Our Programme for
Government, Cabinet Office: London).
Rhetorical use of “rebalancing”
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Services to Manufacturing
Consumption to exports
Public to private
South to North
Regional GDP per capita levels, England Standard Statistical
Regions, 1871–2007
Source: Crafts (2005a) and BIS calculations of ONS Regional Accounts
Notes: 1. Estimates of regional GVA are on a workplace basis, where the income of commuters is
allocated to their place of work. 2. Following Crafts (2005a) London and the Rest of the South East
were combined into one observation for the purposes of calculating the coefficient of variance. 3. The
Coefficient of Variation is a measure of dispersion calculated as: Standard Deviation/Mean.
Source: Pike and Tomaney (2010)
Expenditure on Regional Industrial
Assistance, 1960-2002
Employment Premiums
2.5
Automatic Investment
Support
Discretionary Assistance
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Source: Wren, C. (2005) “Regional grants: Are they worth it?”, Fiscal Studies, 26, 2, 245-75. (Figures are
for actual grant payments at constant prices for Great Britain).
Public versus private sector jobs growth 1998-2006 by region
S. Pringle, G. White, R. Pates, J. Cook, V. Seth, R. Beaven, J. Tomaney, P. Marques, and A. Green (2011)
Rebalancing the economy sectorally and spatially: An evidence review Volume 1 – Main report. London: UK
Commission for Employment and Skills
Regional GVA per head
S. Pringle, G. White, R. Pates, J. Cook, V. Seth, R. Beaven, J. Tomaney, P. Marques, and A. Green (2011)
Rebalancing the economy sectorally and spatially: An evidence review Volume 1 – Main report. London: UK
Commission for Employment and Skills
Source: HM Treasury (2010: 13) Spending Review 2010, Cm 7942, HM
Treasury: London.
Source: Authors’ elaboration of data in Hooghe, L., G. Marks et al. (2008). “Patterns of Regional
Authority”, Regional and Federal Studies, 18, 2-3, 167-181.
“If you want to rebuild a fragile
national economy you don’t strangle
business with red tape and let bloated
regional quangos make all the
decisions. Urgent action is needed to
rebuild and rebalance local
economies…The solution needs to
be local…By giving up central control
we will put democratic accountability
back into the local economy making it
responsive to the needs of local
business and local people”
(Eric Pickles quoted in BIS Press Notice, 29 June
2010, BIS: London, emphasis added).
From RDAs to LEPs, 2011 (March)
Source: Department for Communities and Local Government
City Mayors
“Elected mayors can provide the strong, visible
leadership to help our cities to prosper, attracting
investment and jobs from home and abroad. Our
greatest cities can benefit from the prestige and
international standing a mayor can bring, helping
them to achieve their full potential. For Britain to be
successful our cities need to be successful. An
elected mayor with a strong voice can seize the
opportunities for their city to compete on the
world stage”
Source: Greg Clark, Cities Minister, “Mayoral election date confirmed”, Press Release, 9
February 2012, Department for Communities and Local Government, emphasis added
City Deals
“The battle for economic growth - for Britain's future, will be
won or lost in our cities…The key to unlocking that potential is
a new deal for cities. Giving cities the powers, control over
resources, and funding they need to fire on all cylinders
and attract the private sector investment needed to
rebalance the economy. But this revival will depend on all of
Britain's cities, not just the few…I am inviting more cities to
consider the vision they have for their community and the deal
they need to make it happen. We are turning the established
order on its head and cities must come to Whitehall not as
supplicants, as in the past, but as equal participants in an
open and constructive deal making process”
Source: Greg Clark, Cities Minister, “’City deals’ to be widened across England”, Press
Release, 23 January 2012, Department for Communities and Local Government, emphasis
added
Mayoral referendums, May 3rd 2012
City
Result
Yes %
No %
Birmingham
NO
42.0
58.0
Bradford
NO
44.9
55.1
Bristol
YES
53.3
46.7
Coventry
NO
36.4
63.6
Doncaster*
YES
62.0
38.0
Leeds
NO
36.7
63.3
Manchester
NO
46.8
53.2
Newcastle upon
Tyne
NO
38.1
61.9
Nottingham
NO
42.5
57.5
Sheffield
NO
35.0
65.0
Wakefield
NO
37.8
62.2
* Referendum to decide on whether to retain or abolish existing directly-elected mayor.
Source: author’s research
Dorling, D. and Hennig, B. D. (2010).
In Focus: General Election 2010.
Political Insight1 (2): 72.
Results and prospects
• Accumulated and entrenched regional disparities
• Long history of interventions – but no long-term
strategies
• (Contradictory) rhetoric of “rebalancing”
• Comparatively weak local and regional institutions
characterised by cycles of instability
• Disputes about appropriate scale
• Worrying trends