Transcript Nessun titolo diapositiva - Fondazione Italianieuropei

A MULTIPOLAR WORLD ECONOMY
Global and domestic challenges
Paolo Guerrieri
University of Rome ‘La Sapienza’
1
CONTENTS
• The rise of new powers is making the world economy
increasingly multipolar.
• The multipolar world could evolve in different ways
• The EU desirable model of multipolarity would be
multilateral
• The domestic and global reform agenda to make it
politically sustainable
• The stakes are very high: the prospects for prosperity of
much of the world
2
A MULTIPOLAR WORLD
There is a redistribution of economic power at world level
across countries and areas
Emerging countries - China and India in particular - will take a
greater slice of the world economy.
On current trends, in 2020, the US, China and the EU will each
have a little under 20 per cent of global GDP, while India will
have almost 10 per cent
The rise of new powers is making the world economy
increasingly multipolar.
3
WORLD GDP SHARES
1913
1950
19%
23%
27%
29%
USA
USA
25%
Europa occidentale
Europa occidentale
Asia
Asia
Resto del mondo
Resto del mondo
33%
18%
2005
2020
Quota PIL mondiale 2005
22%
Quota PIL mondiale 2020
19%
20%
37%
19%
US
US
EU
EU
ASIA
21%
26%
19%
Resto del Mondo
ASIA
Resto del Mondo
43%
.
GLOBAL GOVERNANCE in a
MULTIPOLAR WORLD
How will China and India exercise their powers? Cooperative
and/or conflicting behaviors?
The new global governance and the stability of the multipolar
world
A further expansion of globalization?
Two models of multipolarity: multilateralism and
neomercantilism
The linkage between global governance and world economic
growth
5
THE MULTILATERAL MODEL
World GDP will grow at an average annual rate of 3.5% - 4%
in 2006-20 (similar to the past 15 years).
China and India will be among the fastest-growing economies
The pace and extent of globalisation will be the single most
important determinant of world economic growth
Gradual trade and investment liberalization
Well-functioning international institutions and a rule-based
international order
6
The Multilateral Model: Global Economic Growth
140,000
20062020
120,000
20002007
100,000
3,5%
3,6%
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
20
20
20
19
20
18
20
17
20
16
20
15
20
14
20
13
20
12
20
11
20
10
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
0,000
7
.
GDP Growth Rates 2006-2020
China
6,0
India
5,9
Russia
3,3
Middle East
4,1
Eastern Europe
3,4
Africa Sub-Sah.
3,2
Latin America
3,2
US
3,0
EU 25
Japan
2,1
1,1
Average =
3,5%
* Source: EIU, 2006
8
8
THE NEO-MERCANTILISTIC MODEL
Multipolarity based on great power rivalry
Governments are moving away from reliance on multilateral
rules to emphasise the promotion and protection of national
interests
More protectionism and neo-mercantilistic policies
Global growth in 2010-20 would drop significantly (1.5-2%),
implying for many countries and areas essentially stagnant
world percapita incomes.
The hardest hit would be the emerging markets, especially the
poorest ones
9
Neomercantilistic Multipolarity: World Economic Growth
Valori proiettati del PIL
Miliardi di dollari USA*
Cina
4,0
3,6
3,5
USA
2,8
3,0
2,5
2,4
India
2,2
1,8
2,0
1,5
1,7
1,2
1,0
Giappone
0,5
Russia
Italia
0,0
Mondo
* Valori costanti 2003
Fonte: Goldman Sachs, 2003
UE25
Asia
America Latina Medio Oriente e
Nord Africa
Africa subsahariana
USA
10
10
THE EU IN A MULTIPOLAR WORLD
In the second scenario the EU rate of economic growth will be
significantly reduced
In any global system based on great power rivalry Europeans
would find it much harder to tackle the problems they consider
most urgent
The EU desirable model of multipolarity, by contrast,
would be multilateral.
The EU must not be a passive observer of the new international
order that is emerging
11
Multipolar World: Globalization Models
.
THE BENEFITS and COSTS of
WORLDWIDE ECONOMIC INTEGRATION
The globalization, in some appropriate form, is a major engine
of economic growth and its contribution to economic
development are palpable
But exposure to the international economy can impose serious
costs on people, industries, regions and even whole countries
and these costs vary from place to place and time to time
It has become increasingly unpopular
Persuasion alone won’t suffice
13
Institutional Reforms and Policies
at Domestic Level
Institutional reforms and policies are needed at home and
internationally to render further market opening politically
acceptable and sustainable: a “Multilevel Governance
Agenda”
The benefits of trade and financial globalization requires better
domestic institutions and policies to smooth transitions,
essentially improved safety nets in rich countries
14
Institutional Reforms and Policies
at Global Level
Work should be done to strengthen multilateral bodies, and
the international rule of law.
The governance agenda of the existing multilateral
institutions
The multipolar world will also need new institutions, both
formal and informal, to manage the stresses and strains of
globalisation (in the spheres of economics, the environment and
security; and to accommodate the rise of new powers).
But many other challenges would be better served by informal
groups of the most relevant countries
15
THE LESSONS OF HYSTORY
The earlier wave of globalization (1815-1913) collapsed
because of the inability of the international system to cope
with the tensions created by the expansion of global finance
and trade
Main problems: inherent instabilities in global finance, a
growing social and political backlash, and the overloading of
multilateral institutions
These problems are remarkably similar to those we face
today
16
THE CHALLENGES AHEAD
A Multilevel Governance Agenda: the challenges is not only
how to liberalize further, but how to allow countries to handle
the problems that openness and economic integration creates.
No magic formula
The EU desirable model is for an open multilateral world
economy
The EU’s own attitudes, policies and actions will have a big
impact on how the multipolar world develops
17
THE CHALLENGES AHEAD II
So the priority for an European reformist agenda is clear:
The EU must be able to relaunch its social-economic model and
speaks by a single voice: a stronger and more influential EU
The EU should become a fundamental tool to manage the
multipolar world and transform the many threats into viable
opportunities
The stakes are very high: the prospects for prosperity of Europe
and much of the world as well
18