Transcript Water in New Hampshire

Board of Directors
William H. Dunlap, Chair
David Alukonis
Eric Herr
Dianne Mercier
NH Economic
Indicators –
Where to Next?
James Putnam
Todd I. Selig
Michael Whitney
Daniel Wolf
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
Directors Emeritus
Sheila T. Francoeur
Concord Chamber of Commerce
Concord, NH
April 17, 2014
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek
Brian F. Walsh
Kimon S. Zachos
“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”
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Economic Opportunity
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Past economic growth was driven
by high rates of migration
Percent Change in NH Population
30.0%
24.8%
25.0%
21.5%
20.5%
20.0%
13.8%
15.0%
10.0%
11.4%
8.5%
6.9%
5.0%
0.0%
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data
Growth in NH’s population, capital and productive have declined,
suggesting that New Hampshire’s economic experience of Tailwinds
may have turned into headwinds?
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The Urgency?
• Strong demographic tailwinds have ended.
• NH’s economy has fundamentally
changed
– 1990: high tech (2%) and manufacturing
(25%) accounted for 27% of NH’s economy
– 2010: high tech ( 4%) and manufacturing
(15%) accounted for 19% of NH’s economy
• Zero job creation between 2000 and 2010.
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In this context,
where should we invest?
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Health Care
Education/Workforce
Natural and Cultural Resources
Energy
Fiscal
Infrastructure
Workforce Housing
Regulatory
Business Growth and Retention
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Dashboard Development
• NH Business and Industry Association stakeholder
groups identified goals
• Center developed a series of indicators that track with
goals.
– Example of a goal: “All New Hampshire residents are among the
healthiest in the nation and have lifelong access to a high quality,
affordable integrated and preventive health and community
support system.”
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Health Care Expenditures Per Dollar of Gross State Product, 2010
Age Adjusted Mortality Rates, 2011
State-specific Standardized Infection Ratios (SIRs), 2011
Percent Uninsured, 2011
Average Family Premium per Enrolled Employee For EmployerBased Health Insurance, 2011
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Health Care (Example)
State and U.S. Rank
New Hampshire
Total Health Care
Expenditures as a
Percent of Gross
State Product
(GSP), 2010
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2011 Age State-specific
Percent
Adjusted Standardized
Mortality
Infection Uninsured
Rates Ratios (SIRs):
2011
15
36
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Average Family
Premium per
Enrolled
Employee For
Employer-Based
Health Insurance Overall
49
37
Maine
Massachusetts
Vermont
49
30
47
28
6
16
50
24
1
4
1
3
40
50
47
48
13
17
North Carolina
South Carolina
Texas
Virginia
21
41
8
6
37
42
29
24
26
42
23
41
34
45
50
21
17
33
30
27
29
47
34
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Indicators Compared to neighbors and major
advanced high tech manufacturing competitor
states
State and Rank
New Hampshire
Fiscal
17
Education &
Workforce Regulatory
14
22
Cultural &
Business
Natural
Growth
&
Workforce
Housing Resources Energy Infrastructure Health Retention Overall
31
4
28
27
37
7
11
Maine
Massachusetts
Vermont
30
39
35
36
1
32
42
41
31
29
41
32
7
3
6
35
20
24
33
35
43
48
13
17
31
2
11
38
8
24
North Carolina
South Carolina
Texas
Virginia
32
29
8
11
11
29
16
4
14
17
28
20
25
15
21
35
20
38
47
11
13
33
41
27
18
12
10
15
29
47
34
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27
30
23
29
16
33
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With whom are we competing?
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Cultural and Natural
Resources
• State spending on natural
resources per person
• Percent of tree cover in
urban areas
• Domestic tourism
spending per capita
• Creative Economy Jobs
Concentration
• Voter turnout rate
• Volunteering rate
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Education, Labor and
Workforce
• Change in 35-44 population
share, 2000 to 2010
• Percent of adult population
with an associate degree or
higher
• Percent of population in
Science and Engineering
workforce
• High school graduation rate
• Student debt per person
• Rate at which high school
graduates go on to postsecondary institutions
• Percent of children aged 3 to
4 years old enrolled in
preschool
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Fiscal Policy
• State Business
Climate Tax Index
• Top Marginal
Corporate Tax Rate
• Public Health,
Welfare, Hospital
Spending per Person
in Poverty
• State Debt per Dollar
of Personal Income
• Public Government
and Administration per
Dollar of Personal
Income
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Energy
• Industrial Electric
Prices
• Natural Gas
Prices in Dollars
per Million BTUs
• Energy
Consumption
• Expenditures Per
Capita
• Energy Efficiency
Rank
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How Does NH Rank?
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NH excels on
“current climate” indicators
Area
WFHousing
Regulatory
EdWorkFrc
Cultural
EdWorkFrc
EdWorkFrc
EdWorkFrc
Fiscal
Fiscal
GrowthReten
Indicator
Homeownership rates
Pollution Abatement / $ Value Added
High School grad rate
Voter turnout rate
Pct of pop in Science & Engineering workforce
Pct w/Associates+
Percent of children aged 3-4 in preschool
State Business Tax Climate Index
Public health/welfare spending per person in poverty
Manufacturing Supercluster Concentration (LQ)
NH Rank
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But NH lags on
“future climate” indicators
Area
Fiscal
Infrastructure
WFHousing
Health
Fiscal
Energy
GrowthReten
Regulatory
EdWorkFrc
EdWorkFrc
Indicator
NH Rank
Top marginal corporate tax rate
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Percent of bridges deficient or obsolete
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Owner costs more than 30% of Income
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Health Care Expenditures per Capita by State of Residence, 2009
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State debt per $ Personal Income
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Industrial Electric Prices
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Capital Investment Projects per 100,000 pop
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Land Use Restriction
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Change in 35-44 y.o share of population, 2000 to 2010
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Average student debt
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State averages hide large
regional variation
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
37.6%
35.0%
31.4%
28.4%
14.7%
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For its size, the Nashua-Manchester
Corridor is in the top 10 with fastest
growing companies
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At the median ….
Area
• Merrimack Mirrors
the state.
Source: Daniel Lee, Plymouth State University
US
NH
Strafford
Hillsborough
Cheshire
Grafton
Merrimack
Rockingham
Sullivan
Belknap
Coos
Carroll
Median Age,
2010
37.2
41.1
36.9
39.3
40.7
41.2
41.4
42.2
43.9
44.7
46.4
48.3
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Size of Labor Force
Working-Age Population (Age 20-64)
US
NH
Strafford
Hillsborough
Cheshire
Merrimack
Grafton
Rockingham
Sullivan
Belknap
Coos
Carroll
% Change
2010-2030
1.0%
-9.7%
-2.4%
-5.5%
-8.9%
-10.2%
-11.2%
-12.3%
-14.7%
-16.3%
-20.0%
-24.4%
• Assuming no
migration the workingage population in New
Hampshire will
decline nearly 10% in
the state.
• The northern rural
counties will see
larger declines.
• Carroll County sees
the biggest declines.
Source: Daniel Lee, Plymouth State University
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Skill of the Workforce
% of persons 25 years old or over
with BA or higher, 2000
United States
24%
New Hampshire
29%
Grafton
33%
Rockingham
32%
Hillsborough
30%
Merrimack
29%
Cheshire
27%
Carroll
26%
Strafford
26%
Belknap
23%
Sullivan
20%
Coos
12%
Source: Daniel Lee, Plymouth State University
Gain in % of persons 25 years old
or over with BA or higher, 19902000
United States
4.1%
New Hampshire
4.3%
Grafton
6.3%
Rockingham
5.7%
Strafford
4.8%
Hillsborough
3.7%
Merrimack
3.7%
Sullivan
3.2%
Carroll
3.1%
Belknap
2.8%
Cheshire
2.7%
Coos
0.9%
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Capital Stock Growth
Areas
United States
New Hampshire
Grafton
Merrimack
Cheshire
Strafford
Carroll
Rockingham
Sullivan
Belknap
Hillsborough
Coos
% change,
2000-2010
29.6%
30.0%
54.8%
38.9%
37.4%
36.0%
30.5%
28.2%
27.3%
25.9%
22.8%
13.6%
Source: Daniel Lee, Plymouth State University
• Grafton ranked the
first in the state in
the growth of
private business
investments during
2000-2010.
• Only Grafton
exceeded
Merrimack.
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Affordable Housing?
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Job Growth Driven by
Health Care
Long-Term Occupational Projections 2010 - 2020
Merrimack County
Occupational Group
Total Employment
29-0000 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations
31-0000 Healthcare Support Occupations
43-0000 Office and Administrative Support Occupations
41-0000 Sales and Related Occupations
39-0000 Personal Care and Service Occupations
47-0000 Construction and Extraction Occupations
35-0000 Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations
53-0000 Transportation and Material Moving Occupations
25-0000 Education, Training, and Library Occupations
13-0000 Business and Financial Operations Occupations
11-0000 Management Occupations
49-0000 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations
21-0000 Community and Social Services Occupations
37-0000 Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance
15-0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations
27-0000 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media
33-0000 Protective Service Occupations
51-0000 Production Occupations
23-0000 Legal Occupations
19-0000 Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations
17-0000 Architecture and Engineering Occupations
45-0000 Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations
Prepared by: Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau
2010
Employment
80,051
4,873
3,440
12,745
8,005
2,979
2,981
5,331
4,378
5,290
4,150
6,815
2,864
1,542
2,604
1,232
1,141
1,964
4,121
990
802
1,282
522
2020
Projected
88,026
5,891
4,384
13,477
8,643
3,580
3,530
5,767
4,851
5,735
4,541
7,177
3,152
1,803
2,851
1,381
1,260
2,092
4,093
1,067
868
1,340
543
Average Annual Openings
Percent
Numeric
Change Growth Replacement Total
Change
2,692
1,842
850
10.0%
7,975
197
95
102
20.9%
1,018
143
48
95
27.4%
944
362
272
90
5.7%
732
317
252
65
8.0%
638
135
73
62
20.2%
601
122
66
56
18.4%
549
221
174
47
8.2%
436
150
103
47
10.8%
473
160
116
44
8.4%
445
123
84
39
9.4%
391
184
146
38
5.3%
362
97
66
31
10.1%
288
59
33
26
16.9%
261
72
46
26
9.5%
247
39
24
15
12.1%
149
46
31
15
10.4%
119
68
54
14
6.5%
128
90
76
14
-0.7%
-28
25
17
8
7.8%
77
31
24
7
8.2%
66
34
28
6
4.5%
58
17
14
3
4.0%
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Looking forward: The ecology of
a successful economy
There’s this …
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Human Capital
Financial Capital
Economic Creativity
Business Base
Costs of Business
Infrastructure
Quality of Life
And then … Brad Feld
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A Strong Pool of Tech Founders
Local Capital
Killer Events
Access to Great Universities
Motivated ‘Champions’
Local Press, Organizational Tools
Alumni Outreach
Wins
Recycled Capital
Second-Time Entrepreneurs
Attractive to Engineers
Tent-pole local tech companies
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How does this relate to
existing initiatives
• Many initiatives designed to deal with perceived long term
issues.
– Governor Hassan: Innovate NH Jobs
– Former Governor Lynch: The green launching pad
– New use of unemployment funds – train individuals to build new small
businesses.
– Community College System
• Hypertherm and Community College collaboration
• The Advanced Manufacturing Partnership (Albany)
– UNH Innovation
– UNH, STEM initiatives (NHCF, Business NH coalition)
– Granite State Futures – planning generally – housing and transportation.
– Stay, Work, Play.
• Question: Are they working? Is there a problem?
– Are conditions getting better/worse?
– What about regional approaches
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What is the goal of
economic development?
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Targeting Industries?
State efforts to amplify ‘economic ecology’ development?
Retention of existing businesses?
Targeted Industry development?
What/which tactics are necessary to meet strategic
goals?
– Enhance human capital? Workforce Development (make your
own vs. import)
– Workforce housing?
• How does one align and amplify existing efforts given
scarce human and financial resources?
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New Hampshire Center
for Public Policy Studies
Board of Directors
William H. Dunlap, Chair
David Alukonis
Eric Herr
Dianne Mercier
James Putnam
Todd I. Selig
Michael Whitney
Daniel Wolf
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
Directors Emeritus
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Want to learn more?
• Online: nhpolicy.org
• Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
• Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
• Our blog: policyblognh.org
• (603) 226-2500
Donna Sytek
Brian F. Walsh
Kimon S. Zachos
“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”
27