Transcript THINKING LONG TERM - World Resources Institute

THINKING LONG TERM:
Confronting Global Climate
Change
Written by
James J. MacKenzie
Senior Associate
World Resources Institute
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A hostile climate (Ice Ages) made
life difficult for our ancestors
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Today’s more favorable climate has
supported the growth of civilization
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Partly as a result of a favorable
climate, humanity has grown in
numbers over time
Millions of people
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
0
500
1000
1500
Year
2000
2500
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The world has grown dependent on
inexpensive fossil fuels
Source: “Global Energy Perspectives” IIASA, WEC, 1998
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But the burning of fuels now
threatens our well being
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Burning fossil fuels leads to:

Environmental impacts during exploration
and production
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Ozone, acid deposition, and local and
trans-boundary air pollution from burning

Emissions of greenhouse gases
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Global warming enhanced by
emissions of man-made gases
Source: “Climate Change, State of Knowledge,” OSTP, 1997
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Much is known with certainty about
global warming:

Existence of natural greenhouse effect is
established beyond doubt

Concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs)
are increasing

The temperature of the earth is increasing.
1998 the hottest in at least 1000 years.

Sea levels are rising (4 to 10 inches over
past 100 years)

Some GHGs will remain in the atmosphere
for centuries
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CO2 contributed most to global
warming over past century
Methane
23%
Carbon
Dioxide
70%
Nitrous
Oxide
7%
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CO2 is building up in the atmosphere
Source: “Climate Change, State of Knowledge,” OSTP, 1997
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Earth’s temperature continues to
rise rapidly
Source: “Climate Change, State of Knowledge,” OSTP, 1997
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The polar ice cap is melting
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Earth is projected to grow warmer
Source: Univ. of East Anglia, IPCC
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Extreme precipitation events are
becoming more common
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Uncertainties still persist

Timing and regional impacts
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The effects of increased cloudiness
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Uncertain health and ecological impacts

Possible surprises from unanticipated
effects
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More impacts of global warming
can be expected

More health effects from the spread of
tropical diseases, heat waves, and socalled “natural disasters”

Loss of agricultural land in developing
countries

Disappearance of ecosystems that are
unable to migrate
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The climate problem is a
long-term problem
and will require
“thinking long term” to solve
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Common sense goals to cope with
the climate threat

Reduce CO2 emissions, requiring world
economy to become much more efficient

Start a world-wide shift from fossil to nonfossil energy sources
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We can explore energyclimate futures through
“what if” scenarios ...
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Criteria for a strategy to keep CO2
levels “reasonably” low

A strategy should support sustainable
growth in the world economy

Improvements in global energy efficiency
(E/GDP)

A transition to non-fossil energy sources
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These criteria are met in the
“Ecologically Driven Scenario” from
Global Energy Perspectives
by WEC and IIASA
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Scenario assumptions related to
energy demand

Growth rate in global energy demand of
0.8% over next century, doubling energy
use by 2100

Doubling of world population by 2100

10-fold increase in world economy over
next century

1.3% annual improvement in energy
efficiency. One would need only 20% as
much energy to produce a dollar of GDP
compared with today.
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Recent annual energy growth rates
(1987-1996)
Global, 1990-2100
World
OECD
US
0.8
1.1
1.4
1.5
Brazil
2.7
3.2
Japan
China
4.3
5.5
India
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
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Assumptions related to energy
supply

Global supply of new renewables (wind, PV,
hydro) would increase to 50% by 2100

Biofuels from trees, agricultural wastes,
municipal wastes, and so on would account
for 30% of supply by 2100

Nuclear would be phased out by 2100
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Coal, oil, and natural gas would fall to 18%
of global supply from its present value of
80%

CO2 emissions would fall by 2/3 by 2100
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Energy supply: The global transition
to non-fossil energy
Mtoe
25,000
Solar
Hydro
Biomass
Nuclear
N. Gas
Coal
Oil
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1990
2020
2050
2100
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Photovoltaics (PV) produce power
with no emissions or moving parts
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The use of wind machines is
growing rapidly around the world
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Rapid growth required in the use of
renewable energy sources
Mtoe
18,000
16,000
Solar
14,000
Hydro
12,000
Biomass
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1990
2020
2050
2100
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Rapid growth required in the use of
renewable energy sources

Use of biofuels must increase —
sustainably — to over 5 times its present
value by 2100 (1.6% growth per year)

Hydro must increase to 3 times its present
value by 2100 (1.2% growth per year)
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Rapid growth required in the use of
renewable energy sources

PV and wind must grow to 45% of global
supply by 2100
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PV and wind must grow initially at about
12% per year, slowing to 6% by 2050,
and then to about 2 to 3% per year
through the year 2100

Global data show that electricity from PVs
and wind has been growing at about 20%
per year for the past 15 years.
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From the viewpoint of noncarbon energy sources, the
future looks promising.
Global growth in these two
vital sources of renewable
energy is on track to meet
the needs of a growing world
economy
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Mtc
Resulting carbon dioxide emissions
(1990 through 2100)
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1980
2000
2020
2040
Year
2060
2080
2100
2120
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CO2 concentration in an ecologically
driven future
In this aggressive scenario, the CO2
concentration would peak at about 450
parts per million (ppm) -- less than a
doubling -- in the last quarter of the
21st century, and then start declining.
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National leaders should also…

Support research on renewable energy
technologies and the infrastructure needs
to phase them into the economy.
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Use government purchasing power to
create markets, bring down prices, and
get experience with the use of renewable
energy technologies including hydrogen
and fuel cells.
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In general terms, a “thinking long
term” program would have the
following goals ...

Develop a century-long energy and
climate strategy to hold CO2 concentration
below a doubling

Improve global energy efficiency (reduce
E/GDP) to hold energy growth to under
1%

Support rapid phasing in of non-fossil
energy sources
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Specifically, national leaders should
support strategies to ...

Reform energy prices to make them more
closely reflect the costs they impose on
society. At the same time, lower taxes on
income, savings, and investment to offset
higher energy prices.

Such reforms encourage efficiency and
make more economically attractive
renewable energy technologies.
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In short, there are three areas for
major federal emphasis ...
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Reforming energy pricing to “level the
playing field”
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Supporting basic research on new
technologies, and
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Using federal purchasing to expand
markets and reduce costs.
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Climate Web sites

www.ipcc.ch/
“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change”

www.usgcrp.gov/
“US Global Change Research Program”

globalchange.gov/
“Gateway to Global Change Data”

www.globalchange.org/
“Global Change, Electronic Edition”
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Global energy Web sites

www/iiasa.ac.at/cgibin/ecs/book_dyn/bookcnt.pv“
Global Energy Perspectives”

www.undp.org/seed/eap/
“United Nations Development Programme”

www.worldenergy.org/
“World Energy Council”

www.undp.org/seed/eap/activities/wea/
“World Energy Assessment”
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http://www.wri.org/wri/