Transcript Реформирование российской электроэнерг

Energy Industry:
Retarding or Driving Force
for Economic
Advancement?
Anatoly Chubais
Chairman of the
Management Board
RAO UES of Russia
Moscow
February 13, 2007
Energy Industry:
Retarding or Driving Force for Economic
Advancement?
Economy
Development
Demand
Retardation
Energy Industry
Main sections of this Presentation:
• Energy Industry: Needs of the Economy
• Energy Industry: Market Reform and Development Strategy
• Energy Industry: Impetus to Economic Sectors
2
Needs of the Economy
Electricity Consumption:
Approaching Historical Highs
1400
kWh in
billions
1200
1074
1082
1990 level
992
1000
984
856
828
809
1996
1998
800
1990
1992
1994
864
878
2000
2002
924
2004
2006
2008
Average annual rate of growth in 2000-2005: 1.7%
Average annual rate of growth in 2006: 4.2%
Source: Forecasted Balance of Electricity and Capacity for 2006-2010 (baseline scenario); RAO UESR
estimates
3
Needs of the Economy
Peak Load Regions:
Exceeding the Electricity Consumption Peak of the Soviet Period
180
Source: RAO UES of Russia
2006 vs. 1990, %
170
1990 = 100%
160
160
150
140
130
121
120
124
115
108
110
102
104
105
110
110
106
100
4
Needs of the Economy
2006-2010: Changes in Electricity Consumption
and Required New Capacity
Source: Resolution of the Russian Government of November 30, 2006; RAO UESR estimates
1,300
1,200
Average annual increase in 2006-2010:
5.0%
1,198
kWh
in billions
Dramatic growth of demand for new
capacity
1,134
1,100
1,086
Revision of Investment Program for
the energy industry:
from 23.4 GW to 40.9 GW
1,035
1,000
Exhaustion of generation additions
using existing capacity
984
900
Change in demand trends
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
For reference: new capacity commissioned in Russia in 1991-2005 – 23.3 GW,
maximum annual commissioning of new capacity in Russia in the Soviet period – 8.9 GW (1985)
5
What makes this possible?
Effective demand
Reform of the
energy industry:
turning into a
competitive sector
Development strategy:
strategy finalization
6
Energy Industry: Reform and Development Strategy
Reform of the Electric Power Industry:
National Policy
Essence of the reform: separation of monopolistic and competitive sectors
Competitive
sectors
Generation
Electricity sales
GOALS:
• to create market players
• to transfer to market pricing
principles
Market rules
Government as regulator
Natural
monopolies
Dispatching
Main grids
Regulated tariffs
GOALS:
• to reorganize infrastructure for
market operations
• to ensure nondiscriminatory access
to grids
Distribution grids
7
Energy Industry: Reform and Development Strategy
RAO UES of Russia: Pre-reform Structure
Minority
Shareholders
of the Parent Company
Russian
Federation
52%
48%
RAO UES
73 AO-Energos
Centralized
Dispatching
Administration
Generation
Grids
Sales
High
Voltage
Grids
+
Grid
Services
32
Federal
Power
Plants
8
Energy Industry: Reform and Development Strategy
Russian Electric Power Industry: Target Structure
Monopolies
Competitive Sectors
Private shareholders
Government
System
Wholesale
Generation
Companies (6)
FGC
Operator
IDC Holding Company
Central NorthWest
Ural
and
Volga
Siberia
Competitive
Market
Rosenergoatom
Independent
Generation
Companies
Sales Companies
FGC – Federal Grid Company
IDC – Interregional Distribution Company
Territorial
Generation
Companies (14)
Hydro WGC (1)
Engineering
Centers
9
Energy Industry: Reform and Development Strategy
Investment Deployment Concept for
the Electric Power Industry
Reform Concept
Investment Deployment Concept
Private
investments
Investments from
the state budget
Competitive
sectors
(primarily thermal
generation)
Monopolistic
sectors
10
Energy Industry: Reform and Development Strategy
Investment Mechanisms
Competitive sector
(thermal generation, sales, services)
Monopolistic sector
(grids, dispatching)
• Additional issues of shares in WGCs and
TGCs in favor of private investors
• Additional issues of shares in FGC, SO,
and HydroWGC in favor of the Government
• Investment Guarantee Mechanism
• Funds from the federal budget
• Direct private investments in
local projects
• Payment for technical connection to grids
• Revenue from sale of assets
• Revenue from sale of assets
• Loans and advances
• Loans and advances
• Own funds
• Own funds
Most investment mechanisms result from the
energy industry reform and market creation
11
Energy Industry: Reform and Development Strategy
Investment Program of RAO UES Holding
Company: Scope and Mechanisms
900,000
rubles
in millions
820,211
825,586
753,652
800,000
100
700,000
520,452
600,000
60
500,000
Own funds
28.3%
Raised funds
14.7%
Issue of additional shares
12.6%
Payment for technical connection
8.7%
Revenue from sale of assets
8.4%
400,000
300,000
Federal budget
30
180,019
200,000
15
100,000
5
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
Total in 2006-2010:
3,099,920,000,000 rubles
2010
7.2%
Funds from external investors for
projects under IGM
4.8%
Long-term projects for expansion of
the Investment Program
4.5%
Special purpose investments
1.2%
Accumulation fund,
accumulated own funds
Other
0.2%
Step-by-step increase in the share of electricity sold at nonregulated prices, %
9.4%
12
Energy Industry: Reform and Development Strategy
Additional Issue of Shares in WGCs and TGCs:
Key Mechanism of the Investment Program
RAO UESR Administrative Order No. 914
of December 20, 2006
List of companies issuing additional
shares:
WGC-1
WGC-2
WGC-3
WGC-4
WGC-5
WGC-6
TGC-1
Mosenergo (TGC-3)
TGC-4
TGC-5
TGC-7
TGC-8
TGC-9
TGC-10
Kuzbassenergo (TGC-12)
TGC-13
Overall assessment of funds raised
from additionally issued shares in 2006-2008:
179.5 billion rubles – total for WGCs
242.1 billion rubles – total for TGCs
Total:
421.6 billion rubles
Companies whose Programs for Preparation and Placement of Additional Shares are approved
by the Board of Directors of RAO UES of Russia
13
Energy Industry: Reform and Development Strategy
Prospects until 2030:
Targeted Vision, General Layout, Investment Programs
2030
Targeted Vision for Development of the
Russian Electric Power Industry for the Period
Ending 2030
2020
2010
General layout of electric
power facilities until 2020
Investment Program
of
RAO UES Holding
Company for 20062010
2006
2006
2010
5-year investment programs
of energy companies
as from 2008
2020
2030
14
Energy Industry: Reform and Development Strategy
Capacity Commissioning Program
MW
Thermal generation
WGCs, TGCs, RAO UESR
Small TGC HPPs
2009
2010
2006-2010
1,596
7,576
16,979
28,821
110
161
96
124
493
56
696
477
1,548
2152
4,929
1,254
2,280
2,234
9,220
19,255
34,243
402
771
2,093
2,201
1,190
6,657
1,656
3,051
4,327
11,421
20,445
40,900
2006
2007
1,196
1,474
2
Hydro WGC
Total for Holding Company
Other commissionings
Total commissionings, MW
2008
20,000
15,000
MW
10,000
5,000
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
15
Energy Industry: Reform and Development Strategy
2006-2015:
Changes in the Fuel Mix
250
200
tonnes of fuel equivalent
in millions
233.4
212
179.3
143.1
150
Gas
Coal
90.6
100
68.9
50
0
2006
2010
1%
2015
1%
1%
27%
29%
37%
3%
3%
2%
69%
67%
Gas
Fuel oil
Coal
60%
Other
16
Energy Industry: Reform and Development Strategy
New Technological Structure in the Electric Power
Industry
Generation
Efficiency
34%
Gas-fired generation: steam-power technology replaced by
combined cycle gas technology (CCGT)
Efficiency
>50%
Efficiency
34%
Coal-fired generation: circulating fluidized-bed technology;
Implementation, Innovation, and Reconstruction technology;
and super-supercritical technology
Efficiency
42-46%
Hydropower:
active development of pumped storage power plants and tidal power
plants
Grids are a
passive element
of the energy
system
Mode control using
administrative
and command
methods
Transmission
Implementation of Flexible AC Transmission Systems (FACTS),
new DC transmission technologies (DC Converters),
and high-temperature superconductivity technologies
Dispatching
Radical renovation of data processing technologies based on
SCADA-EMS.
Grids become an active
element of the energy
system, with
a capacity to change
power and energy flows
Mode control through
economic motivation
of market participants
Creation of 3-tier technological vertical of dispatching centers
Creation and servicing of the electricity market, system service
market, and balancing market
17
Energy Industry: Impetus to Economic Sectors
RAO UES of Russia Investment Program –
Factor for Power Plant Engineering Development
Planned expenses related to purchase of primary thermal power equipment
for generation facilities of WGCs and TGCs
250
200
rubles
in billions
210.3
212.4
2009
2010
146.3
150
96.1
100
50
29.8
0
2006
2007
2008
Total for 2006-2010: 694.9 billion rubles
Purchase orders for construction materials can be placed
on the B2B-Energo online trading floor at http://www.b2b-energo.ru
18
Energy Industry: Impetus to Economic Sectors
Factor for Power Plant Engineering Development
as exemplified by Power Machines
2006
Sales
2010
$0.68 billion
$1.5 billion
8 GW
17 GW
Share of services in portfolio of orders
less than 10%
15%
Share of exports in portfolio of orders
more than 80%
40%
Generation facilities
Corporate Investment Program for 2007-2010: $1 billion
Key investment sources ($ in millions)
Issue of additional shares in Power Machines
~ 200
~ 450-500
Bonded loans and bank loans
Sale of assets
~ 300-400
19
Energy Industry: Impetus to Economic Sectors
… Factor for Electrical Engineering Development
Planned expenses related to purchase of high-voltage equipment and materials for
FGC facilities (incl. transmission companies) for 2007-2011
25
19.5 19.4
20
rubles
in billions
Total procurement
expenses for
2007-2011:
15
Equipment:
97.5 billion rubles
10
5
8
Materials:
97.2 billion rubles
3,5
0
2006
2007-2011
(average annual)
High-voltage equipment
Materials
Purchase orders for construction materials can be placed
on the B2B-Energo online trading floor at http://www.b2b-energo.ru
20
Energy Industry: Impetus to Economic Sectors
… Factor for Coal Industry Development
Coal demand in TPP sector (excl. isolated generating plants) for 2006-2010
180
tonnes
in millions
160
153
151
159
136
140
121
120
100
80
60
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Increased annual coal consumption in 2010 as compared with 2006:
38 million tonnes (~31.5%)
Source: RAO UES of Russia
21
Energy Industry: Impetus to Economic Sectors
… Factor for Gas Industry Development
Source: Resolution of the Russian Government of November 30, 2006
Gas deliveries to energy companies for 2006-2010
200
186
cu m
in billions
162.9
150
166.9
174.8
143
100
50
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Increased annual gas consumption in 2010 as compared with 2006:
43 billion cu m (30%)
• Provision is made that 5-year long-term agreements for transportation of gas from independent producers
be signed
• As from April 1, 2007: transition to 5-year gas delivery agreements with energy companies.
Price guidepost: equal profitability of gas sale both in the domestic market and for export in 2011
22
Energy Industry: Impetus to Economic Sectors
… Factor for "Secondary Processing" Development
as exemplified by the construction materials sector
Source: research by Progressor at the request of RAO UES of Russia (preliminary estimates)
2
Demand for cement of
TPPs and HPPs of the
Holding Company: new
construction and
technical upgrading:
7.2 million tonnes
1.8
tonnes
in millions
1
0.3
0
2006
6
Cement expenses of
TPPs and HPPs of the
Holding Company: new
construction and
technical upgrading:
rubles
in billions
2007-2010 (annual average)
4.8
4
2
0.6
19.2 billion rubles
0
2006
2007-2010 (annual average)
Purchase orders for construction materials can be placed
on the B2B-Energo online trading floor at http://www.b2b-energo.ru
23
Energy Industry: Impetus to Economic Sectors
… Factor for R&D and C&I Development
Source: research by Progressor at the request of RAO UES of Russia (preliminary estimates)
12
Research and
development
(in thermal power
industry only):
43.5 billion rubles
10.9
rubles
in billions
8
3.9
4
0
2006
66.3
80
60
Construction and
installation
(in thermal power
industry only):
265.2
billion rubles
2007-2010 (annual average)
rubles
in billions
40
20
10
0
2006
2007-2010 (annual average)
Orders for R&D and C&I can be placed on the B2B-Energo online trading floor at
http://www.b2b-energo.ru/
24
Energy Industry: Impetus to Economic Sectors
… Factor for Science and Education Development
March 2006: Agreement for Cooperation signed between RAO UES of Russia and the
Russian Academy of Sciences
Major Areas of Joint Activities
 Development of the Targeted Vision of Development of the Russian Electric Power Industry for the
Period Ending 2030
 Research to create new competitive equipment for energy companies
 Development and mastering of new technologies
Cooperation with the Industry-Related Higher Education Institutions
• Recruitment of graduates from higher education institutions
• Programs for personnel training, retraining, and advanced training
• Corporate scholarships and contests
25
Reform of the electric power industry
turns it into a driving force for economic advancement
Reform of the Electric Power
Industry
Economy
Demand
Electric power
industry
Economic advancement
Economic retardation
26