Transcript The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market

The Changing Face of the
Texas Labor Market
Rural Workforce Network
Lubbock, Texas
February 11, 2003
Richard Froeschle, Director
Career Development Resources(CDR)
[email protected]
(512) 491-4941
Why Do We Care About
Understanding the Labor Market?
• Improve Job Search. Identify industry and
occupational areas with economic activity (pos &
neg) to guide job search for all customers
• Reduce Frictional Unemployment. Improve
efficiency of universal job search process by
directing clients to occupational areas in demand
• Employer Contact. From the targeted list, develop a
“hot prospects” or potential “sales” contact list.
Better than “cold calling”! Provides rationale for
contact strategy and improves staff efficiency
• Increase the likelihood of job placements. Assist in
connecting education & training programs with
actual job openings e.g. finding jobs after exit
Why Labor Market Targeting (continued)
• Improving Workforce Program Performance.
Research demonstrates targeting leads to improved
placement rates and Board performance
• Connect Local Partners. Knowledge basis for forming
industry partnerships/clusters to leverage funds, share
resources, promote solutions
• Connect to Regional Economic Development
Strategies. Focus on targeted industries or clusters.
Plan the work, allocate the resources, work the plan
• Understand the competition for jobs. Think like an
employer, think globally, plan (and act) locally.
Prepare yourself and your clients accordingly!
Economic
forecasting is a
field that gives
Astrology a good
name!
Does this Sound Like an Economist?
A Changing Texas Labor Market
1. If it’s not a recession, it’s still not
fun! Downturn affects output,
employment, tax revenues,
employment in all sectors
2. Economists still very divided on
duration, turning point signals, and
level of job growth in recovery
What do labor economists agree on?
1. There will be no shortage of
opportunities in the knowledge sector
for those with the education and
intelligence to perform in it
2. All jobs, even the most low-skilled, will
require higher levels of basic education,
math, communication and technology
skills…for survival and growth
3. Those without some specialized
knowledge or skill are likely to suffer
declining real wages
What do labor economists agree on? (II)
4. The Digital Divide exists and those on
the wrong side will have limited hiring
and advancement opportunities
5. Jobs requiring “human touch” will
continue to be in demand e.g. health
services and nursing, construction…no
robot plumbers!
6. Workplace settings and business
practices and knowledges will change
rapidly, making lifelong learning essential
e.g. life after “paving the cow path”
A Changing Texas Labor Market (2)
3. Continued transition to services,
not products for value-added and
employment opportunities
Increase in “high tech” and “high
touch” jobs
What comes after the Knowledge
economy? The Creativity Economy? The
Celebrity Economy?
U.S. Industries Adding Most
Jobs 2000-2010
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1. Computer and Data Processing
2. Retail Trade
3. Eating & Drinking Places
4. Offices of Health Practitioners
5. State and Local Education
6. Misc. Business Services
7. Construction
8. State and Local Government
9. Wholesale Trade
10. Health Services, NEC
13. Residential Care
14. Hospitals
16. Nursing/Personal Care Facilities
1.80 mil
1.60 mil
1.48 mil
1.24 mil
1.07 mil
1.00 mil
824 thou
808 thou
776 thou
689 thou
512 thou
509 thou
394 thou
Texas Industries Adding the Most Jobs
1999-2002
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Absolute Growth
Educational Services
Food Services/Drinking Places
Ambulatory Health Care
Services
Professional and Technical
Services
Local Government
Specialty Trade Contractors
General Merchandise Stores
Hospitals
Heavy and Civil Construction
Motor Vehicle and Parts
Dealers
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Percent Change
Warehousing and Storage
Management of Companies
Financial Investment
Heavy and Civil Construction
Support Activities for Mining
Ambulatory Health Care
Services
Utilities
General Merchandise Stores
Educational Services
Motor Vehicles/Parts Dealers
(NAICS codes)
Industries Losing the Most Jobs from 1999-2002
Absolute Change
• Agriculture/Forestry Support
• Computer/Electronic Manuf.
• Apparel Manufacturing
• Transportation Equip Manuf.
• Fabricated Metal Manuf.
• Chemical Manuf.
• Oil & Gas Extraction
• Food & Beverage Stores
• Administrative Support
Services
• Federal Government
(NAICS codes)
Percent Change
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Agriculture/Forestry Support
Apparel Manufacturing
Computer/Electronic Manuf.
Transportation Equip Manuf.
Wood Product Manuf.
Misc. Manufacturing
Printing and Related Support
Oil & Gas Extraction
Electrical Equipment and
Appliances
• Paper Manufacturing
Texas Exports 2001
$94.995 billion in 2001
• Mexico (41.0%)
• Europe (11.8%)
• Southeast Asia
(11.8%)
• Canada (10.8%)
• Asia (8.6%)
• South America (5.5%)
• Africa (4.8%)
• Middle East (3.6%)
• Computer/Electronic Products
(27.0%)
• Chemicals (15.3%)
• Industrial Machinery (13.5%)
• Transportation Equipment
(11.9%)
• Electrical Equipment (5.1%)
• Petroleum (3.9%)
• Fabricated Metal Products
(3.4%)
• Plastics and Rubber (2.9%)
A Changing Texas Labor Market (3)
4. Technology implementation will
enhance productivity and transform
many job sites and skill sets. What
jobs can be replaced by technology
(sheep shearing, textile inspector,
electronic insurance processing,
voice recognition)? What jobs does
technology create? see….
Burlington/Nano-Tex, Texasinabox.com
More Output…Not More Workers
U.S. Projections 2000-2010 (annual)
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Industry Sector
Output
Employment
Computers & Related
7.0%
1.6%
Chemicals
3.3%
.4%
Industrial Machinery
6.1%
.5%
Transportation Equipment
3.7%
1.1%
Motor Vehicles
4.4%
0.8%
Electrical Equipment
5.3%
0.6%
Fabricated Metal Products
3.6%
0.8%
Plastics and Rubber
4.0%
1.4%
Telephone Communications6.5%
1.2%
Computer Data Processing
8.0%
6.4%
Technology Meets Apparel Manufacturing
Technology Meets Barbeque…
A Changing Texas Labor Market (4)
5. More jobs in small firms, greater use of
leased and independent contract labor
means fewer and shorter career ladders
6. Higher overall workforce education levels
encourage fewer internal career ladders,
fewer growth options for unskilled when
they get a job e.g. hire outside folks who
don’t need training
Texas Employment Distribution by Firm Size
First Quarter 2001
Firm
Size
Of Firms Statewide
No.
Percent
0-4
5-9
10-19
20-49
50-99
100-249
250-499
500-999
1,000 plus
Total
243,788
77,816
52,239
38,203
14,554
8,820
2,826
1,242
843
440,331
55.3%
17.7%
11.9%
8.7%
3.3%
2.0%
0.6%
0.3%
0.2%
100.0%
Of Workers Statewide
No.
Percent
462,175
520,016
723,532
1,203,531
1,040,977
1,396,492
992,058
891,835
2,106,265
9,336,881
5.0%
5.6%
7.7%
12.9%
11.1%
15.0%
10.6%
9.6%
22.6%
100.0%
Pattern of Change 1989-2001
Texas Employment Percentages by Firm Size
Firm
Size
Pct of Workers
1989 1992 1996 2001
Trend
0-4
4.92
5.78 5.16 5.0 SMALL INCREASE
5-9
5.68
7.02 5.97 5.6 SLIGHT DECLINE
10-19
6.92
9.12 8.01 7.7 INCREASE
20-49
10.26 14.52 13.11 12.9 INCREASE
50-99
8.34 11.62 10.91 11.1 BIG INCREASE
100-249 11.52 14.64 14.56 15.0 BIG INCREASE
250-499 9.24
9.04 9.77 10.6 INCREASE
500-999 9.02
7.87 9.53 9.6 SMALL INCREASE
1000 + 34.10 20.48 22.98 22.6 MAJOR DECLINE
A Changing Texas Labor Market (5)
7. For those working within companies,
organizational structure moving from
pyramid to flatter pyramid to hour glass,
so fewer ports of entry for low skill
workers
8. Workplace earnings are increasingly
correlated with education and earnings
inequality is increasing based on education
and the “Digital Divide”
Changing Nature of Work:
New Paradigm for Career Ladders
1. Increased employment growth in
service industries with higher
percentages of workers in the
secondary labor market
2. More jobs being created in smaller
firms with shorter or less well-defined
promotional ladders
3. Increased role for contingent workers,
outsourcing, independent contractors
with few formal promotional ladders
Distribution of U.S. Employment by Education Category
Education Category
Bachelors Degree or higher
Employment
2000
2010
Percent distribution
Jobs Added
Between
2000-2010
Mean
Annual
Earnings
2000
20.7%
21.8%
29.3%
$56,553
1.4%
1.4%
1.7%
$91,424
1.0%
1.1%
1.6%
$52,146
1.0%
1.0%
1.5%
$43,842
5.0%
5.2%
6.4%
$69,967
12.2%
13.0%
$48,440
Associate Degree
18.1%
3.5%
4.0%
7.3%
$41,488
Postsecondary vocational
award
Work experience
4.6%
4.7%
5.5%
$31,296
7.2%
8.5%
6.9%
5.0%
$40,881
8.0%
4.2%
$33,125
Moderate-term OJT
19.0%
18.4%
14.1%
$29,069
Short-term OJT
36.6%
36.3%
34.6%
$19,799
First Professional Degree
Doctoral Degree
Masters Degree
Bachelors plus work
experience
Bachelors Degree
Long-term OJT
Lifetime Earnings by Education Level in Texas
Education Level
Estimated
Lifetime
Hours
Short-term training
Moderate-term training
Long-term OJT*
Work Experience
Post-sec Vocational Award
Associate’s Degree
Bachelor’s Degree
Bachelor’s + Experience
Master’s Degree
Doctoral Degree
First Professional Degree
83,200
83,200
83,200
83,200
83,200
83,200
83,200
83,200
83,200
83,200
83,200
Estimated
Hourly
Earnings
$8.26
$11.32
$12.12
$15.85
$13.30
$17.72
$19.74
$24.82
$18.51
$19.53
$35.61
Texas 2000
Work Life
Earnings
$687,232
$941,824
$1,008,384
$1,318,720
$1,106,560
$1,474,304
$1,642,368
$2,065,024
$1,540,032
$1,624,896
$2,962,752
A Changing Texas Labor Market (6)
9. Globalization is changing economic theory,
business practices and labor supply options
10. Changing demography affects everything
from education needs, working with diversity,
consumer tastes, tax structure, retirement
Globalization and the U.S. Economy
Total World Gross National Income
(Product) 2001 = $31,500,012 million
United States Gross National Product
2001= $9,900,724 million
The FACT is that the United States
economy represents 31.4 percent of the
World Economy.
The REALITY is that the top 20 richest
countries represent 85 percent of the
World Economy and the top 10 richest
account for 74 percent.
What Is an American Company?
Percent of 2000 Revenue Outside U.S.
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YUM Brands Inc. 34.5%
General Motors 26.2%
Ford 30.4%
Boeing 34.3%
Intel 58.8%
Coca Cola 61.0%
Federal Express 29.9%
Emerson Electric 40.0%
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Texaco 65.9%
IBM 57.9%
Motorola 52.5%
Johnson/Johnson 38.2%
John Deere 25.1%
Colgate 69.4%
Nike 50.3%
Hasbro 36.0%
Global Labor Supply
Competition is Real!
India is positioned to become
the world’s information
technology hub
India’s software exports are
expected to grow from $8
billion in 2001 to $57 billion by
2008, providing 4 million jobs.
The Competition for Financial Services Jobs…
Impacts of Globalization on Consumers
• Broader access to a wider variety of
products and services than neighborhood
offers
• Greater vendor diversity leads to better
buying opportunities, lower prices; eg.
comparison shopping via Internet
• Lost allegiance to domestic producers;
what about the “union label” or U.S.
TVs??
• More volatile labor market with stronger
competition from global labor supply
Impacts of Globalization on Business
• Businesses with global reach access more
customers and get exposed in new
markets
• Businesses with regional niche lose local
customers to a global market place
• Business is exposed to supply chain
opportunities to acquire lower cost inputs
• Business is exposed to new labor supply
options; foreign affiliates, H1B, global
outsourcing
A Changing Texas Labor Market (7)
11. A changing industry mix
is
resulting in changing
occupational demand and
skill sets, with an emphasis on
lifelong learning.
Projected Fastest Growing Occupations
BLS National 2000-2010
• Fastest Growing
• Computer Software
Engineers Applications
• Computer Support Specialists
• Computer Software
Engineers Systems
• Network Administrators
• Systems Communication
Analyst
• Desktop Publishers
• Database Administrators
• Personal Home Care Aides
• Computer Systems Analysts
• Medical Assistants
• Adding Most Jobs
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Fast food Prep Wrkers
Customer Service Reps
Registered Nurses
Retail Sales Workers
Computer Support
Specialists
Cashiers, ex. Gaming
General Office Clerks
Security Guards
Software Applications
Engineers
Waiter/Waitress
Occupational Growth in Texas
Fastest Growing 2000-2010
1. Computer Support
Specialists
2. Computer Software
Engineers, Apps
3. Network & Systems
Administrators
4. Desktop Publishers
5. Computer Software
Engineers, Systems
6. Network & Data
Communications
Analysts
7. Computer Specialist,
NEC
8. Database Administrators
9. Medical Records Technician
10. Social Services Assistants
11. Special Education Teachers
12. Computer Systems
Analysts
13. Medical Assistants
14. Physician Assistants
15. Information Systems Mgrs.
Occupational Growth in Texas
Most Jobs Created 2000-2010
1. Customer Service
Representatives
2. Food Prep and Serving
Workers, Fast Food
3. Child Care Workers
4. Retail Salespersons
5. Registered Nurses
6. Cashiers
7. Computer Support
Specialists
8. Office Clerks, General
9. Waiters & Waitresses
10. General and Operations
Managers
11. Elementary School
Teacher
12. Teacher Assistants
13. Secondary School Teacher
14. Janitors and Cleaners
15. Truck Drivers, Heavy and
Tractor Trailer
Texas Career Clusters
(sorted by Absolute Change)
Cluster Name
Business Administration
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Hospitality and Tourism
Human Services
Health Services
Manufacturing
Logistics & Distribution
Information Technology
Education and Training
Public Administration
Construction
Scientific Research & Technical
Legal and Protective Services
Finance
Art & Communications Services
Agriculture
Employment Employment Absolute Percent Average
2000
2010 Change Change Wages
3,024,530
1,775,390
1,255,660
1,001,240
884,380
1,107,930
1,050,760
455,330
619,900
919,650
838,270
443,870
330,090
639,470
512,880
559,220
3,450,090
2,030,000
1,477,950
1,218,640
1,099,320
1,294,450
1,217,400
616,930
778,100
1,062,960
951,350
544,810
410,420
712,920
585,760
631,360
425,560
254,610
222,290
217,400
214,940
186,520
166,640
161,600
158,200
143,310
113,080
100,940
80,330
73,450
72,880
72,140
14.07
14.34
17.70
21.71
24.30
16.84
15.86
35.49
25.52
15.58
13.49
22.74
24.34
11.49
14.21
12.90
$18.11
$12.30
$10.11
$11.65
$16.67
$18.04
$17.31
$24.45
$16.23
$26.18
$15.57
$26.97
$17.04
$18.33
$19.65
$21.42
A Changing Texas Labor Market (8)
12. All education and workforce development
is part of economic development.
Industry Clusters and regional targeting
must emphasize regional collaboration.
13. The economic future of the region will
depend on understanding the market
factors faced by the employer community
and how you shape policies to take
advantage of that environment
The Secret is in Collaboration!
The Future is Uncertain…
Predictions--statements
indicating that something
definitely will happen in the
future--are generally
impossible, due to human
decisions that alter the future
and to the many uncertainties
inherent in human life
Foretelling the Future…
There Are No Gypsys with
Crystal Balls!
Futurists suggest things
that might happen in the
future so that people can
decide what they want to
make happen.