Transcript Parkin-Bade Chapter 24

Ch. 13: Fiscal Policy
• Federal budget process and recent history of outlays, tax
revenues, deficits, and debts
• Supply-Side Economics
• Controversies on effects of deficits on investment,
saving, and economic growth
• Fiscal policy as a stabilization tool
The Federal Budget and Fiscal Policy
 Federal budget
• annual statement of the federal government’s outlays and tax
revenues.
• Two purposes
o finance the activities of the federal government
o achieve macroeconomic objectives
 Fiscal policy
• the use of the federal budget to achieve macroeconomic objectives
• Employment Act of 1946
it is the continuing policy and responsibility of the Federal
Government to use all practicable means . . . to coordinate and
utilize all its plans, functions, and resources . . . to promote
maximum employment, production, and purchasing power.
(Normal) Timeline for Budget Process
February to March
President submits budget request to Congress.
May-August:
House and Senate revise/amend proposals
September
House-Senate conference committees resolve differences and agree on final
versions of spending bills. President signs or vetoes final bills.
October 1
Beginning of fiscal year (10/1/2014 is beginning of 2015 fiscal year).
Congress passes continuing resolutions to maintain funding for any agencies
affected by appropriations bills that have not been passed and signed by the
beginning of the fiscal year.
Fiscal Policy
 The Council of Economic Advisers
• Chaired by Jason Furman
• keeps the President and public informed about the
current state of the economy
• evaluates economic proposals
• Provides data to inform the budget-making process.
 Congressional Budget Office
• Forecasts effects of legislative changes on budget and
economy
Federal Deficits and Public Debt
 Budgett = revenuet –outlayst
• if Budgett > 0  budget surplus
• if Budgett < 0  budget deficit
• (outlays include interest on debt)
 Debtt = Debtt-1 - budgett-1
• Budget deficits increase debt
• Budget surpluses decrease debt
Source: Congressional Budget Office
Total Spending=$3.8 trillion
($12,700 per capita)
Mandatory Spending:
based on existing laws rather than the budgeting process. (e.g. Social
Security and other entitlement programs are based on the eligibility rules
for that program. Mandatory spending is not part of the annual
appropriations process.
Discretionary spending:
portion of the budget that the president requests and Congress
appropriates every year
Total mandatory spending:
$2.6 trillion
($8700 per capita)
Total Discretionary
Spending:
$1.2 trillion
($4000 per capita)
The Federal Budget
Outlays
Revenues
The National Debt
State and Local Budgets
• The total government sector includes state and local
governments as well as the federal government.
• In 2015, when federal government outlays were about
$3.8 trillion, state and local outlays were a further $3.1
trillion.
• Most of state expenditures are on public schools,
colleges, and universities; local police and fire
services; and roads.
• Most states have “balanced budget amendments”.
Federal Income Tax Marginal Rates
2015 Federal Income Tax Marginal Rates
Share of income paid in taxes
Source: http://www.cbo.gov/publications/collections/tax/2010/graphics.cfm
Source: http://www.cbo.gov/publications/collections/tax/2010/graphics.cfm
Source: http://www.cbo.gov/publications/collections/tax/2010/graphics.cfm
Average Federal Tax Rate by Income Quintile, 1979-2007
(note: all federal taxes included)
Supply-Side Economics
 Fiscal policy aimed at increasing LAS
• Income taxes affect LAS by affecting labor supply.
• Higher income taxes reduce labor supply & reduce LAS
• “Supply-siders” argue for low marginal tax rates.
 Graph the effect of an increase in income tax rate on
•
•
•
•
before-tax real wage rate, after-tax real wage rate.
Tax-wedge (difference between before and after tax wage)
Equilibrium employment
LAS
Tax Wedge Comparisons
The Supply-Side: The Laffer Curve.
Tax Revenue
Tax Rates
The Laffer Curve
 As tax rates rise, taxable income may fall because
• People reduce work hours
• Tax avoidance increases
o Legal tax avoidance
–
–
–
–
–
Charities
Tax free bonds
Pension saving
Capital gains versus income
Corporate tax avoidance
o Illegal tax avoidance
– Under-report income
– Inflate deductions
Laffer Curve and Capital Gains Tax
Laffer curve and corporate income tax rate – tax havens video
Source: http://time-blog.com/curious_capitalist/2008/01/do_capital_gains_tax_cuts_incr.html
The Supply-Side: Investment and Saving
 GDP = C + I + G + (X – M)
 GDP = C + S + T
 I + G + (X – M) = S + T
I = S + (T – G) + (M – X)
Private saving PS = S + (M – X)
Government Saving GS=T-G
 I = PS + GS
The Supply-Side: Investment and Saving
 Fiscal policy influences investment and saving in two
ways:
• Taxes affect the incentive to save and change the
supply of loanable funds.
• Government saving is a component of total saving and
the supply of loanable funds.
The Supply-Side: Investment and Saving
 A tax on capital income
decreases the supply
of loanable funds
 a tax wedge is driven
between the interest
rate and the after-tax
interest rate
 Investment and saving
decrease.
The Supply-Side: Investment and Saving
 Effect of a government budget deficit on saving and
investment -- crowding out
The Supply-Side: Investment and Saving
 Ricardo-Barro Equivalence
• In above diagram, it is assumed that government
budget does not shift PSLF curve.
• Ricardo-Barro:
o Larger deficits cause households to increase
savings in order to cover future tax increases.
o Net effect of larger deficit on SLF curve is zero
because PSLF curve shifts right.
o No effect on investment or interest rates
o All increases in deficits are offset by increased
saving (decreased consumption).
Stabilizing the Business Cycle
 Discretionary fiscal policy
• action that is initiated by an act of Congress.
 Automatic fiscal policy (Auto stabilizers)
• fiscal policy triggered by the state of the economy.
Stabilizing the Business Cycle
 Discretionary Fiscal
Stabilization
• An increase in
government
expenditure or a tax
cut increases
aggregate demand.
• The “multiplier
process” increases
aggregate demand
further.
• Size of multiplier is
controversial.
Stabilizing the Business Cycle
• A decrease in
government
expenditure or a tax
increase decreases
aggregate demand.
• The multiplier
process decreases
aggregate demand
further.
Stabilizing the Business Cycle
 Limitations of Discretionary Fiscal Policy
• Recognition lag
o time it takes to figure out that fiscal policy action is
needed.
o Law-making lag
– time it takes Congress to pass the laws needed to change
taxes or spending.
o Impact lag
– time it takes from passing a tax or spending change to its
effect on real GDP being felt.
Stabilizing the Business Cycle
 Automatic Stabilizers
• mechanisms that stabilize real GDP without explicit
action by the government.
• Taxes that rise and fall with GDP taxes and needstested spending are automatic stabilizers.
• When real GDP decreases in a recession
• wages and profits fall, so taxes fall
• Needs-tested spending rises
• Budget deficit grows (surplus shrinks)
The Budget and the Business Cycle
 Cyclical and Structural Balances
 Actual Budget = Cyclical Budget + Structural Budget
• The structural surplus or deficit
• the surplus or deficit that would occur if the economy
were at full employment and real GDP were equal to
potential GDP.
• The cyclical surplus or deficit
• the surplus or deficit that occurs purely because real
GDP does not equal potential GDP.
• Cyclical budget < 0 if GDP< potential GDP
Cyclical and Structural Budget
If the structural budget is +$100 billion and the
cyclical budget is -$300 billion, we can conclude
that if the economy was at full employment:
a. there would be a
surplus
b. There would be a
deficit.
c. There would be a
balanced budget.
76%
19%
5%
a.
b.
c.
If the structural budget is +$100 billion and the
cyclical budget is -$300 billion, we can conclude
that the economy is currently producing ____
potential GDP
79%
a. above
b. below
c. at
21%
0%
a.
b.
c.
As the economy recovers from the past
recession, the actual budget deficit should
a. Shrink as tax revenues rise and
government spending falls
b. Shrink as tax revenues and
government spending fall
c. Rise as tax revenues rise and
government spending falls.
d. None of the above.
of
No
ne
as
se
Ri
th
ta
x
ea
b.
..
re
...
...
ax
st
ka
Sh
rin
Sh
rin
ka
st
ax
...
25% 25% 25% 25%