Transcript Tennessee Tax Revenues Presented to the Funding Board

The U.S. Economy as the
Recession Ends
Presented to
2009 Tennessee Federal Tax
Conference
William F. Fox, Director
Center for Business and Economic Research
The University of Tennessee, Knoxville
November 19, 2009
Real GDP: 2005 to 2012
Source: IHS Global Insight, Inc.
November 19, 2009
William F. Fox, Center for Business and
Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu
2
Growth in Quarterly Real Personal
Consumption Expenditures
(Chained 2005 Dollars)
November 19, 2009
William F. Fox, Center for Business and
Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu
3
Unit Sales of New Light Vehicles and
Housing Starts
November 19, 2009
William F. Fox, Center for Business and
Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu
4
FHFA Housing Price Index: 2005 to
2012
Source: IHS Global Insight, Inc.
November 19, 2009
William F. Fox, Center for Business and
Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu
5
U.S./Euro Foreign Exchange Rate and
Real Exports Less Imports
November 19, 2009
William F. Fox, Center for Business and
Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu
6
Unified Federal Budget Surplus
November 19, 2009
William F. Fox, Center for Business and
Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu
7
$561 Billion Stimulus Injection
2009–2010
Boost to GDP
November 19, 2009
William F. Fox, Center for Business and
Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu
8
Interest Rates and Inflation
November 19, 2009
William F. Fox, Center for Business and
Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu
9
TN and U.S. Nonag Job Growth
(Year over Year)
November 19, 2009
William F. Fox, Center for Business and
Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu
10
Change in U.S. Employment*
August 2008 vs. August 2009
State
→
Mi chi ga n
Ari zona
Neva da
Oregon
Ida ho
Georgi a
North Ca rol i na
Indi a na
Al a ba ma
Il l i noi s
Ca l i forni a
Col ora do
Ohi o
Fl ori da
Utah
Kentucky
Tennes s ee
Del a wa re
Wyomi ng
Mi nnes ota
New Mexi co
Wi s cons i n
South Ca rol i na
Vermont
Ka ns a s
Private State & Local
(9.39)
(8.33)
(7.30)
(6.97)
(6.47)
(6.42)
(6.28)
(6.09)
(5.99)
(5.88)
(5.79)
(5.73)
(5.63)
(5.51)
(5.46)
(5.43)
(5.41)
(5.21)
(5.11)
(5.06)
(4.88)
(4.82)
(4.75)
(4.72)
(4.68)
(1.49)
(4.18)
(2.74)
(0.76)
(0.50)
(3.32)
0.36
(2.57)
(0.96)
(0.40)
(0.85)
1.45
(1.43)
(0.74)
1.09
(1.84)
2.02
(5.38)
1.78
0.23
0.38
2.42
(1.60)
2.09
1.62
State
Wa s hi ngton
Mi s s i s s i ppi
Ha wa i i
Connecticut
Okl a homa
Wes t Vi rgi ni a
Texa s
Iowa
Vi rgi ni a
Rhode Is l a nd
Penns yl va ni a
Ma i ne
Mi s s ouri
Ma s s a chus etts
New Jers ey
New Ha mps hi re
Arka ns a s
Ma ryl a nd
New York
Nebra s ka
South Da kota
Loui s i a na
Montana
Al a s ka
North Da kota
Private State & Local
(4.60)
(4.44)
(4.44)
(4.26)
(4.16)
(4.01)
(3.87)
(3.85)
(3.85)
(3.80)
(3.72)
(3.68)
(3.66)
(3.34)
(3.22)
(3.16)
(3.12)
(3.04)
(2.83)
(2.76)
(2.25)
(2.25)
(2.13)
(0.68)
(0.34)
(0.52)
2.99
(2.05)
(2.54)
2.06
(0.50)
3.02
0.24
(0.32)
(5.04)
0.19
(2.20)
0.65
(2.26)
(1.29)
1.58
3.03
(1.14)
3.17
4.45
1.13
0.99
5.21
1.62
2.62
*not seasonally adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
November 19, 2009
William F. Fox, Center for Business and
Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu
11
U.S. Monthly Employment by Sector Compared to
Recession Start
(1 year before peak through Aug 2009)
Source: Calculated by CBER using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (Current Employment Statistics database).
November 19, 2009
William F. Fox, Center for Business and
Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu
12
TN and U.S. Unemployment Rates
(Seasonally Adjusted)
November 19, 2009
William F. Fox, Center for Business and
Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu
13
Tennessee Job Growth by Sector
(Quarter Ending Sept 2008 to Sept 2009)
November 19, 2009
William F. Fox, Center for Business and
Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu
14
Tennessee Manufacturing Jobs,
1990-2008
November 19, 2009
William F. Fox, Center for Business and
Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu
15
Nonag Employment Growth, MSAs
(Quarter Ending Sept 2008 to Sept 2009)
November 19, 2009
William F. Fox, Center for Business and
Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu
16
Percent Growth in Total Tax Revenue
Collections, FY2008-2009
U.S. = -8.2 %
Less than -10.0%
--14-November 19, 2009
-10.0% to -5.7%
--18-William F. Fox, Center for Business and
Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu
Greater than -5.7%
--18-17