Transcript Syrian presentation For The Symposium on illegal

Presented by:
Ekaterina Kozlova, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University)
Elliott Cheresh, Johns Hopkins University
Anton Natarov, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University)
Darya Makarenko, The University of Alabama
~70,000 killed
2.5-3 million
internally
displaced
~1.2 million
refugees
March 2011 present
The Crisis Within the Syrian Borders
Supreme Kurdish
Committee (SKC)
Kurdish
National
Council
-Internally divided
-Lacks genuine ground
presence
-Detached from Kurdish
youth
Ebril Declaration
Kurdish
Democratic
Union
Party
-Internally cohesive
-Has an established
presence
-Rejects any type of foreign
intervention
National Coalition for
Syrian and Opposition
Forces
SNC
-Requests support
without military
intervention
-Has clear plan for
role in transition
-Tension with FSA
Other
Opposition
Groups
FSA
-Inclusive militia of
SA deserters
-Sees itself as
secular protector
of Syria
Al-Nusra Front
-Alleged Al-Qaeda
links
-Strong community
outreach
-Co-opting
infrastructure to
fund operations
GDP
growth
Investment
3.2% in
2010
-3% in
2012
$14 bn in
2010
Inflation
Unemployment
13.4 % in
2012
$10 bn in
2012
8.3 % in
2010
30% in
2012
4.8% in
2010
Syria and US-Russian Relations
Sunni Extremists
Chechen Fighters
Insecurity
-
Insurgency in the North Caucuses
Sunni Public Opinion
 A strong stance is hard to convert into
concrete influence
Recent Shift
Support for
Assad
Neutral
Stance
-
Lack of secular replacement for Assad
Low legitimacy of opposition
Security Council Stalemate
Alternatives:
Tactical changes,
strategic continuity
Key but “distant” players
Policy Proposals