Transcript ENERGY 2020 Reference Case

Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich
Climate Change Advisory Group
(ICCAG)
ENERGY 2020 Reference Case
July 10, 2007
DRAFT – Numbers subject to
revision
Data Sources - Economic




Economic output and employment forecast
from REMI model (Provided by IDECO)
Energy prices from U.S. D.O.E. Annual Energy
Outlook (AEO) for 2007 to 2030
Moderate population growth (<1% annually)
Real personal income expected to grow more
rapidly - raising income/capita
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Data Sources - Economic
Average
Annual
Growth
Population and Income:
1990
2005
2020
2035
Population (Thousands)
10,825
12,770
13,816
352
467
32,515
36,604
Personal Income
(Billions 2000$)
Income per Capita
($/Capita)
1990-2005
2005-2025
15,356
1.1%
0.6%
908
1,636
1.8%
4.1%
65,713
106,532
0.8%
3.5%
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Data Sources - Economic
 Employment
patterns have shifted over
the past 15 years
 Service economy growth has offset
decreased industrial/agricultural
employment.
 Pattern is expected to continue over the
forecast period.
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Data Sources - Economic
Employment
1990
2005
2020
Average
Annual Growth
2035
Industrial
1,335
1,169
1,130
1,158
-0.3%
Commercial
4,824
5,173
5,893
6,308
0.6%
Government
670
735
776
823
0.5%
Agriculture & Forestry
123
103
93
81
-0.9%
6,951
7,181
7,892
8,371
0.4%
Total -
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Historic Energy Use Data
Description of Data
Sources
Household Data
- including number of housing units
by structure type.
US Census Bureau
Residential Data
- Household income by housing type
- No. of people per household
- End use data including primary fuel
type for space and water heating, air
conditioning saturations, etc..
EIA Residential Energy Consumption Survey
- by Census Region and Division
Commercial Data
- Floor area by sub-sector
- End use data including primary fuel
for space and water heating, and
energy intensities.
EIA Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS)
- by Census Region and Division
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/recs/contents.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cbecs/contents.html
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Historic Energy Use Data
Description of Data
Sources
Commercial Data
- Floor area by sub-sector
- End use data including primary fuel
for space and water heating, and
energy intensities.
EIA Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS)
- by Census Region and Division
Industrial/Manufacturing Data
- Energy use by sub-sector and end
use
State Energy Data:
- Overall energy consumption and
expenditures by sector and energy
source.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cbecs/contents.html
EIA Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey
- by Census Region
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mecs/contents.html
EIA State Energy Data System (SEDS)
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html
Illinois Commerce Commission
Annual Comparison of Sales Statistics
for Electricity and Natural Gas
http://www.icc.illinois.gov/industry/publicutility/energy/salesstatist
ics.aspx
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Data Sources - Prices

Oil prices from AEO (figure follows)
 Wellhead price of natural gas based on AEO
 Coal price based on the AEO (both mine mouth
and delivered prices for electric power plant)
 Historic electricity prices from Energy
Information Administration (EIA) (Federal Electricity
Regulatory Commission (FERC) Form 1).

Model calculates power prices based on
generation costs. (Actual prices may differ as a result
of political, regulatory or market influences).
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Data Sources - Prices
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Data Sources - Prices
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Data Sources – Power Sector
Generation from EPA’s National Electric Energy
Data System (NEEDS) 2006 database
 Reviewed additional sources regarding planned
generation and for calibration:




Implementation of EGU1 and EGU2 Policies Using the Integrated
Planning Model (IPM®) in the Midwest RPO Region Prepared for
Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium (LADCO)
Study of Emissions Impact by the Illinois Sustainable Energy Plan
Based on Optimal Power Flow Modeling, PowerWorld
Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants Coal’s Resurgence in
Electric Power Generation, DOE National Energy Technology
Laboratory.
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Points of Comparison

Power Sector
 LADCO and PowerWorld reports
 NETL re planned generation
 September 2006 Illinois Auction Post-Auction
Public Report of the Staff, Illinois Commerce
Commission re prices
 GHG Emissions – US EPA Inventory and WRI
report for Illinois.

Transportation - Illinois EPA and DOT
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Built Environment
Housing Splits by Type
2005
2015
2025
Single Family
65%
65%
66%
Multi Family
33%
33%
32%
2%
2%
2%
Other Residential
The Reference Case assumes no significant change in
the mix of the housing stock over the forecast period.
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Reference Case - Power Sector

Assumed 2,400 MW of coal capacity now in
planning stage will come on-line in 2009 – 2011
(reflects additions already in play).

1,460 MW of Coal capacity assumed to be
retired prior to 2009 when mercury emissions
requirements come into effect.
 For modeling purposes only – no assumptions
re specific plants.
 Transmission interconnections modeled based
on existing capacities as obtained from NERC.
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Reference Case - Power Sector
Illinois Electricity Sales
180,000
160,000
Street/Misc
140,000
Transportation
Industrial
Sales (GWh/year)
120,000
Commercial
100,000
Residential
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
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Illinois Power Generation
Power Generation by Source
250,000
Generation (GWh)
200,000
Other
150,000
Wind
Landfill
Gas/EFW
Hydro
100,000
Nuclear
Coal
Gas/Oil
50,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
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Power Sector – Generation by Source
Generation Summary
(GWh/year)
2000
2004
2010
2015
2020
Gas/Oil
2,720
11,178
22,087
32,352
36,068
Coal
79,936
83,023
88,479
99,674
99,674
Nuclear
89,186
91,844
92,264
92,264
92,264
522
522
338
338
338
3
3
941
1,308
1,664
Hydro
Landfill Gas/EFW
Wind
-
-
311
1,626
2,779
Other
(0)
(0)
277
277
693
172,367
186,570
204,698
227,840
233,479
Total
Illinois Generation by Type - 2004
Illinois Generation by Type - 2020
Share of Generation (GWh) Output
Share of Generation (GWh) Output
Hydro
0.3%
Gas/Oil
6.0%
Landfill Gas/EFW
0.7%
Nuclear
39.5%
Nuclear
49.2%
Coal
44.5%
Hydro
0.1%
Wind
1.2%
Other
0.3%
Gas/Oil
15.4%
Coal
42.7%
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Power Sector

Nuclear and coal contribution declines 20052020 (as share of total) as alternative sources
increase. Oil/Gas share more than doubles.
 Wind, LFG and EFW reach almost 2% of supply
 Growth in Illinois demand approximately 1.3%
per year.
 Growth in line with previous forecasts (LADCO &
Shaw reports).
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Transportation Sector - Demand
Growth in passenger energy use
continues to exceed rate of growth
in population. Freight energy use
grows at a more moderate rate.
Average Annual Growth
1990
to 2004
2005
to 2030
Passenger
1.7%
1.9%
Freight
0.7%
0.9%
Passenger Transportation Energy Use
Bulk of
passenger
energy use for
personal
vehicles.
1,400
1,200
Energy Use (TBtu/year)
1,000
Marine
800
Plane
Train
600
Bus
400
Motorcycle
Passenger
vehicle
200
-
1990
2005
2020
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Transportation Sector
Passenger Vehicle Efficiency
(Average fleet efficiency by vehicle weight class)
40.0
35.0
Efficiency (miles/gallon)
30.0
Light Gasoline
Light Diesel
25.0
Medium
Gasoline
Medium
Diesel
20.0
Heavy
Gasoline
15.0
Heavy Diesel
10.0
5.0
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0.0
No major increase in vehicle efficiencies assumed in
Reference Case.
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Industry Sector
Gross Output by Sector
2005
Computers
8%
Machines
11%
Fabricated Metals
10%
Electric Equipment
4%
Transport Equipment
8%
Paper
4%
Food & Tobacco
15%
Chemicals
13%
Other Manufacturing
17%
Mining
1%
Petroleum Products
5%
Non-ferrous/Smelting
& Refining
4%
 Energy
Intensive Industries represent 27% of GO in 2005.
 Energy use per dollar output in these industries is typically an
order of magnitude higher than in other/general manufacturing.
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Industry Sector
Gross Output by Sector - 2020
Machines
9%
Computers
21%
Electric Equipment
3%
Transport Equipment
7%
Fabricated Metals
8%
Paper
3%
Chemicals
11%
Food & Tobacco
12%
Other Manufacturing
18%
Petroleum Products
4%
Mining
1%
Non-ferrous/Smelting
& Refining
3%
 Energy Intensive industries projected to fall from 27% of
industrial gross output in 2005 to 22% by 2030.
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Illinois GHG Emissions – Base Case
Illinois GHG Emissions - Reference Case
350,000
300,000
250,000
Agriculture & Forestry
Sequestering
Waste & Wastewater
Power Sector
Freight Transport
Passenger Transport
Industrial
Commercial
Residential
Mt CO2e
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
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GHG Emissions by Sector
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
Waste & Wastewater
Power Sector
Freight Transport
150,000
Passenger Transport
Residential
Industrial
100,000
Commercial
Agriculture/ Forestry
50,000
2004
2020
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Illinois GHG Emissions – Base Case
Illinois GHG Emissions in 2020
Base Case
Residential
7%
Commercial
4%
Industrial
14%
Power Sector
38%
Agriculture/Forestry
8%
Freight Transport
3%
Passenger Transport
26%
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Questions?
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