Transcript Slide 1

Financial Development:
China’s experience in an
international perspective
Vivek Arora
ASIA-PACIFIC FINANCE AND DEVELOPMENT CENTER
2006 BIENNIAL FORUM on
FINANCIAL POLICIES TO SUPPORT INNOVATION AND
GROWTH
Shanghai, September 21-22, 2006
The views in this presentation are those of the author and do not represent
those of the IMF or IMF policy.
Outline
 Financial development and growth


Some general considerations
Aspects of financial development
 China’s recent experience and challenges
 Conclusion
Financial development and growth
Financial Deepening and Development
1
Financial development and economic development move in tandem.
 Financial deepening
Advanced economies
Emerging market economies
Developing economies
correlated with
economic development
160
140
120
100
80
60
20
0
20
40
60
80
100
GDP per capita
(United States = 100)
Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics; and Penn World Tables.
1Average values 1970–2000.
0
120
Credit in percent of GDP
40
Source: WEO (2004)
Financial development and growth
(ii)
 Direction of causality? Virtuous circle, but on
balance: more developed financial sector helps boost
economic growth.
 More developed financial system—with competition
among banks, sound institutions, and developed
securities markets—can improve allocative
efficiency of investment.
 Growth regressions: significant positive impact of
financial depth on growth; moreover, impact comes
from productivity enhancement.
Financial development: Competition as
the facilitator of innovation
Competition is the facilitator of innovation.
And…the process by which less-productive
capital is displaced with innovative…
technologies is the driving force of wealth
creation.
Alan Greenspan, 2002
Financial development: aspects
 Banking sector that efficiently intermediates
savings, and is well supervised/regulated.

Commercial orientation (diversified ownership helps),
risk management, internal controls, governance.
 Capital (equity/bond) markets:
 contribute to long-run growth (Levine, 1997),
 provide efficient saving vehicles for retail and
institutional investors, helping to diversify financial
holdings.
 increased diversity of funding sources can improve
robustness of financial system to shocks (REO, 2006).
China’s experience
Selected countries: broad money and investment, 2005
Broad money /
GDP
Investment /
GDP
China
Korea
India
Mexico
163
70
67
28
41
29
26
19
Source: International Financial Statistics and WEO
Investment level and efficiency
 Compared with other countries, China’s investment rate is high.
 But allocative efficiency may be low:
Private enterprises contribute ½ of GDP but account for only
¼ of bank credit (Tran, 2006). State enterprises contribute
1/5 of GDP but account for 2/3 of credit.
 Marginal productivity of capital has fallen over time, from
16% in early 1990s to under 13% in 2004, suggesting that
efficiency of investment is declining (IMF 2005a).
 Suggests scope for intermediating savings more efficiently.

Dominance of bank lending
Selected countries: Financial Sector Indicators, 2004
China
Bank credit/GDP
Korea
India
Mexico Asia
U.S.
Euro area
141
80
37
14
104
46
104
Stock market cap/GDP
39
57
56
25
74
129
55
Domestic debt/GDP
29
76
35
26
43
164
93
0.7
21
0.4
3
7
22
10
of which: corporate
Source: IMF, GFSR (2005), p. 105
 In Asia as a whole, bank credit accounts for nearly ½ of total
financing, compared with less than 15% in the United States.
(Although Euro area, at 40%, is closer to Asian levels.)
 But China’s financial sector is bank-dominated even relative
to other Asian countries. Bank credit (140% of GDP) accounts
for 2/3 of total financing.
China’s equity and debt
markets are relatively small
Equity capitalization and corporate debt stock
Corporate Debt, 2004
Percent of GDP
Equity Capitalization, 2004
Percent of GDP
South Africa
214
Malaysia
161
Germany
Singapore
161
United Kingdom
139
United States
145
United States
116
83
Malaysia
73
United Kingdom
132
Korea, Rep.
Chile
124
Singapore
50
Canada
119
Japan
50
Japan
79
Canada
Thailand
70
Chile
Korea, Rep.
63
68
41
31
Thailand
22
India
56
Brazils
20
Brazil
55
South Africa
17
44
Germany
11
Philippines
Philippines
34
Mexico
9
Turkey
33
Czech Republic
8
Poland
29
Poland
3
Czech Republic
29
India
2
Mexico
25
Turkey
1
China *
1
China †
17
Enterprise financing
 Enterprises finance about
90% of investment from
internal funds (around
50%) and bank loans; almost
none from bonds.
 Developing bond/equity
markets could improve
intermediation and increase
incentives for banks to lend
to SMEs.
 Expanded bond market
would help lower need for
internal financing by
enterprises.
China: Sources of Financing for Fixed
Asset Investment (% of total)
1999
2004
Self raised
45
51
Bank loans
39
40
State budget
7
4
Foreign
capital
8
4
1.2
0.3
Bonds
Source: IMF 2005a, p. 25
Implications of reform
 Wider range of household credit instruments
can increase access to financing by small
businesses (Tran, 2006).
 This, and more diversified portfolios, can help
households to smooth consumption.
 Consumption-smoothing and external
corporate financing helpful for rebalancing
demand, a key macroeconomic imperative.
Reform experience
 Authorities placing emphasis on improving financial
services to support sustainable economic
development (Governor Zhou, 2005).
 Bank reform at forefront of strategy. Significant steps
have been taken, including:



Financial restructuring of CCB, BoC, ICBC completed
Rural credit cooperatives being reformed,
Bank supervision being strengthened.
 At the same time, some progress in development of
capital markets.
Equity market development
Equity market development:
 Easing restrictions on sale of government shares in listed
entities,
 Allowing IPO pricing to be more market determined,
 April 2005 reform launched to convert state-owned shares to
tradable shares in listed companies,
 Streamlining financial requirements for listing, making it easier
for small firms to list, while strengthening disclosure
requirements.
But, like in several other emerging markets, liquidity is still low and
trading concentrated.
Equity as a share of total financing is lower in China (1/5) than in
Asia as a whole (1/3) and in the United States (nearly 40%).
Bond market development
Progress has been stronger at the short than at the long end.
 Like in many Asian countries, China’s bond market is dominated
by the government sector.
 Corporate bond market is shallow and illiquid: even more so
than in other countries (although comparable to India).
 Underdeveloped local institutional investor base and regulatory
impediments (over-regulation, regulatory cap on corporate bond
rates) hamper development.
 Special working group established in February 2004 to improve
regulatory practices.
 But, until market system and corporate governance improve,
bond issuance likely to remain controlled.
 At the short end, significant progress in 2005, as PBC:
 opened short-term corporate bills market,
 established interbank market for asset-backed securities.
Conclusion
 Financial development positively associated
with growth.
 China’s investment rate is high, but allocative
efficiency less so.
 Financial sector can play a role by
intermediating savings more efficiently.
 China is making progress in various aspects
of financial sector development (particularly
bank reform) but challenges remain.
References

Greenspan, A., 2002, “Regulation, Innovation, and Wealth Creation,” Remarks before the
Society of Business Economists, London, September 25.

International Monetary Fund, 2006, Asia & Pacific Regional Economic Outlook.

_____, 2005a, People’s Republic of China: 2005 Article IV Consultation, IMF Country Report
No. 05/411, November.

_____, 2005b, Global Financial Stability Report (September), Chapter IV, “Development of
Corporate Bond Markets in Emerging Market Countries.”

_____, 2004, World Economic Outlook (April), Chapter 4, “Are Credit Booms in Emerging
Market Economies a Concern?

Levine, R., 1997, “Financial Development and Growth: Views and Agenda,” Journal of
Economic Literature, Vol. 35 (June).

Rajan, R., and L. Zingales, 2003, Saving Capitalism From the Capitalists (New York: Crown
Business Publishers.)

Tran, H., 2006, “Financial Sector Reforms in China and India,” Remarks at Conference on
Recent Research on Hedge Funds, Northwestern University, August.

Zhou, X., 2005, “Speeding up Financial Reform to Support Economic Development of the
West Region in China,” speech by Governor Zhou at the High-Level Forum on Economic
Development and Financial Services, Chongqing, November 15.