Transcript The Environment

Climate Versus the Economy:
What's the Right Trade-off?
Bruce M. Everett
The Fletcher School
October 16, 2008
The climate change argument
has two components
How well do we
understand the
issue?
How hard is it to
reduce global
carbon emissions?
A simple test of scientific knowledge
Drop a golf ball from a height of
1 meter. Specify location, air pressure,
humidity, wind and rotation.
Ask 100 scientists how long it will take the ball to
hit the floor.
Their answers would be identical: 0.45 seconds.
Falsifiable experiments tell us that standard gravity
is 9.80665 m/sec2.
Science = quantification
The UN Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC)
• Won the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize
• Done an excellent literature review
• But do they agree on climate science?
Global Surface Warming (ºC)
IPCC Scenario A1B
Scenario specifies:
- Population
- GDP
- Energy demand
- Energy supply by fuel
- Technology
Global Surface Warming (ºC)
IPCC Scenario A1B
Scenario specifies:
- Population
- GDP
- Energy demand
- Energy supply by fuel
- Technology
Lowest model run
(+1.7° C)
Global Surface Warming (ºC)
IPCC Scenario A1B
Scenario specifies:
- Population
- GDP
- Energy demand
- Energy supply by fuel
- Technology
Highest model run
(+4.4° C)
Lowest model run
(+1.7° C)
Global Surface Warming (ºC)
IPCC Scenario A1B
Averaging inconsistent
results is an opinion,
not science.
Highest model run
(+4.4° C)
“Consensus”
(+2.8° C)
Stop agreeing and start
arguing!
Lowest model run
(+1.7° C)
With all due respect to Al Gore,
the scientific debate about climate
change is not over.
How difficult is it to
reduce global
carbon emissions?
Billion metric tons per year
Other devel
China
FSU/EE
Other OECD
US
Projected global CO2 emissions
Source: EIA
No government has indicated any
willingness to sacrifice economic
growth for carbon reduction.
International cooperation is a MYTH
The Kyoto Protocol creates five groups:
1. Developing countries with rights but no obligations.
2. Russia/Eastern Europe, whose post-1990 economic
collapse is treated as energy efficiency.
3. Germany/UK, who had met their targets before they
signed the treaty.
4. The rest of the EU, Japan, Canada and Australia
who have targets but won’t meet them.
5. The US, which sensibly declined to participate.
Billion metric tons per year
Other devel
+20%
China
FSU/EE
Other OECD
If US emissions in 2030 were zero, global emissions
would still be 20% above 2005.
Source: EIA
What steps should the US take to
reduce carbon emissions?
Million metric tons per year of CO2
2005 carbon emissions = 6,000 MMt
Steps to reduce US carbon emissions
Million metric tons per year of CO2
6,000
2008 auto standards
Steps to reduce US carbon emissions
Million metric tons per year of CO2
6,000
Green Office Buildings
Steps to reduce US carbon emissions
Million metric tons per year of CO2
6,000
+20 nuclear plants
Steps to reduce US carbon emissions
Million metric tons per year of CO2
6,000
15% renewable standard
Steps to reduce US carbon emissions
Million metric tons per year of CO2
6,000
Fluorescent light bulbs
Steps to reduce US carbon emissions
Million metric tons per year of CO2
6,000
10-fold increase in
public transportation
Steps to reduce US carbon emissions
Million metric tons per year of CO2
6,000
Replace all refrigerators
Steps to reduce US carbon emissions
Million metric tons per year of CO2
6,000
20 million new solar roofs
Steps to reduce US carbon emissions
Million metric tons per year of CO2
6,000
Reduce driving by
30 miles per month
Steps to reduce US carbon emissions
Million metric tons per year of CO2
6,000
Projected increase
in US by 2030
Steps to reduce US carbon emissions
Million metric tons per year of CO2
6,000
Projected increase
in China by 2030.
Steps to reduce US carbon emissions
Both Presidential candidates agree…
• Frighten the public with scary scenarios.
• Take immediate actions which have:
-
High profile
Low-cost
Negligible impact.
• Promise strong action in the distant future.
• Participate in unproductive international
negotiations.
• Congratulate themselves on their vision.
• Hope the public buys it.
What we should do
1. Study climate change and portray the results
honestly.
2. Acknowledge the high cost of reducing CO2.
3. Look at a 100-year, not a 30-year horizon.
4. Make meaningful promises and keep them.
5. Privatize and deregulate electric power.
6. Remove constraints on natural gas.
•
•
Find new domestic supplies
Facilitate international trade
7. Revive the civilian nuclear power industry.
8. Encourage private sector research.