Transcript Challenges for Cohesion Policy in the NMS

European Commission
Regional Policy
Challenges for Sustainable Development
arising from Climate Change
Mouvement Européen de la Ruralité
Brussels, 13th November 2008
Agnes Kelemen
DG Regional Policy, European Commission
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European Commission
Regional Policy
EU Sustainable Development Strategy and Cohesion
Policy
Key objectives of the EU SDS:
• Environmental protection
• Social equity and cohesion
• Economic prosperity
Key objectives of Cohesion Policy:
• Convergence
• Regional Competitiveness and employment
• Territorial cooperation
Key challenges:
• Climate change and clean energy
• Sustainable transport
• Sustainable consumption and production
• Conservation and management of natural resources
• Public health
• Social inclusion, demography and migration
• Global poverty and sustainable development challenges
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European Commission
Regional Policy
Cohesion Policy and Sustainable Development
Linkages in SDS to Cohesion Policy:
• Social equity and cohesion are one of the 4 key objectives
• “The overall aim of the renewed EU SDS is to identify and develop actions to enable
the EU to achieve continuous improvement of quality of life both for current and for
future generations, through the creation of sustainable communities able to manage
and use resources efficiently and to tap the ecological and social innovation potential
of the economy, ensuring prosperity, environmental protection and social cohesion.”
Linkages of SDS and Lisbon:
• “EU SDS recognises that investments in human, social and environmental capital as
well as technological innovation are the prerequisites for long-term competitiveness
and economic prosperity, social cohesion, quality employment and better
environmental protection.”
Linkages in Council Regulation 1083/2006 to SD
• “Cohesion policy should contribute to increasing growth, competitiveness and
employment by incorporating the Community's priorities for sustainable development
as defined at the Lisbon European Council of 23 and 24 March 2000 and at the
Göteborg European Council of 15 and 16 June 2001.”
• “The objectives of the Funds shall be pursued in the framework of sustainable
development and the Community promotion of the goal of protecting and improving the
environment as set out in Article 6 of the Treaty.”
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European Commission
Regional Policy
Cohesion Policy and Sustainable Development
References to sustainable development in the Cohesion Policy regulations:
• Article 17 of Council Regulation 1083/2006 (General regulation): “The objectives
of the Funds shall be pursued in the framework of sustainable development and the
Community promotion of the goal of protecting and improving the environment as set
out in Article 6 of the Treaty.”
• Articles 4 and 5 of Council Regulation 1080/2006 (ERDF): focus of ERDF
assistance under the convergence and competitiveness and employment objectives on
environment and risk prevention
• Article 6 of Council Regulation 1080/2006 (ERDF): focus of ERDF assistance under
the territorial cooperation objectives on environment and sustainable urban
development
• Article 2 of Council Regulation 1084/2006 (Cohesion Fund): scope of assistance of
the fund includes the environment within the priorities assigned to the Community
environmental protection policy
References to the environment and sustainable development in the Community
Strategic Guidelines:
• One of 3 priority principles where cohesion policy should target resources: “improving
the attractiveness of Member States, regions and cities by improving accessibility,
ensuring adequate quality and level of services, and preserving the environment.”
• As a horizontal issue: “Environmental protection needs to be taken into account in
preparing programmes and projects with a view to promoting sustainable
development.”
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European Commission
Regional Policy
Cohesion Policy and Sustainable Development
Cohesion Policy spending on environment in the 2007-2013 programming period
• 14.5% of total Community amount on investments directly related to the environment
• a further 15.8% of total Community amount for investments indirectly related to the
environment
• a total of 30.4%, including both direct and indirect figures
• approx. 90% of this spending under the Convergence objective
Cohesion Policy spending on climate change in the 2007-2013 programming period
• 4.7% of total Community amount on investments directly related to climate change
(renewable energy, energy efficiency, mitigation and adaptation to climate change, air
quality, risk prevention)
• a further 9.2% of total Community amount for investments indirectly related to climate
change (railways, mobile rail assets, cycle tracks, intelligent transport systems, clean
urban transport)
• a total of 13.9%, including both direct and indirect figures
• approx. 90% of this spending under the Convergence objective
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European Commission
Regional Policy
Relevance of climate change to regional policy
Climate change impacts and adaptation activities:
• Horizontal theme: the mainstreaming of climate change has meant that
adaptation has to be considered horizontally across all activities undertaken 
climate proofing of activities
• Goals of policy: Climate change impacts show a strong core-periphery pattern,
impacts will be most negative in Objective 1 regions  climate change impacts
need to be addressed for cohesion to be achieved
Mitigation activities:
• Horizontal theme: in order to minimize overall costs to the economy  efforts
have to be undertaken in all areas where low cost mitigation opportunities exist
in order to achieve cost efficiency of emission reductions
• Goals of policy: possible synergies between mitigation activities and cohesion
and growth, as well as trade-offs have to be considered
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European Commission
Regional Policy
I. Climate change impacts as drivers of change
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European Commission
Regional Policy
Climate change impacts
Very long term
(climate stabilization under IPCC emission stabilization scenarios as late as 2150)
•
increase in average yearly temperatures (under A2 scenario may be as high as 2-7°C
in European regions)
•
change in precipitation quantities and patterns (increase in northern Europe, decrease
in summer precipitation as high as 70% in some southern European regions)
•
increasing sea levels and risk of coastal erosion
Short to medium term impact (next 15 to 20 years)
•
increasing frequency of extreme weather events
– storms,
– heavy rainfalls,
– droughts,
– peak summer temperatures
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European Commission
Regional Policy
Asymmetric impacts of climate change
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First order effects: changes in the climate system, e.g. in precipitation and
temperature, resulting in changes in the environment
Second order effects on regional level: changes in environmental conditions affect
economic sectors, health and infrastructure, which results in
• impacts on regional growth potential
• impacts on sustainability
• impacts on equity
Costs and benefits, winners and losers: climate change has an asymmetric impact
on European regions
Regional endowments determine asymmetric impact, which depends on:
• the character, magnitude and rate of climate variation
• exposure of system to climate change
• sensitivity of system to change
• adaptive capacity of system exposed
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European Commission
Regional Policy
Asymmetric impacts: temperature change
Average annual temperature
Projected increase of average temperatures in
2071 to 2100 compared with 1961-1990 under
largely unchanged behaviour (A2 scenario)
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Temperature in Europe to
increase by 2.5-5.5°C for the A2
scenario (3.4°C), and 1-4°C for
the B2 scenario (2.4°C) by 2100
•
For the A2 scenario, southern
Europe will experience
temperature increases between
3°C and more than 7°C, with
warming greatest in the summer
•
Northern Europe will experience
temperature increases by less
than 2°C and up to 4°C, with
mainly winters getting less cold
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European Commission
Regional Policy
Asymmetric impacts: precipitation
Precipitation
Projected changes in average yearly rainfall in 2071 to
2100 compared with 1961-1990 under largely
unchanged behaviour (A2 scenario)
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Increased precipitation in
northern Europe
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less rainfall during summer
time in Atlantic and continental
Europe, but more winter rainfall
•
decreases in annual average
rainfall in southern and central
Europe can be as high as 3045%, and as high as 70% for
summer rainfall in some
regions
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European Commission
Regional Policy
Asymmetric economic impacts of climate change
Regional share of agriculture and fisheries in GVA: Share of population working in
agriculture high in areas which will be most negatively impacted by drought
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European Commission
Regional Policy
Asymmetric impacts: agriculture
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European Commission
Regional Policy
Climate change: asymmetric impacts
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Regional growth
–
mild impacts in urban areas on economic output
–
potentially strong impact on assets in densely populated areas with
high asset values
–
strong impacts on weather dependent sectors (tourism, agriculture,
fishery, forestry, energy)
Sustainability
–
increased pressure on natural resources in both demand and supply
(e.g. increased demand for water in times of drought accompanied by
decreased supply)
–
strongly negatively affected in areas with high temperature increases
and peak summer temperatures and low water availability
–
increase in vulnerable share of population in regions with strongly
ageing resident population
Equity
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European Commission
Regional Policy
II. Mitigation policy as a driver of change
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European Commission
Regional Policy
Climate change mitigation policy a driver of change
International climate policy context:
• Need to reduce global emissions by 50-85% compared with 2000 by 2050 to assure
warming of global average surface temperature stays in the 2-2.4°C range,
global emissions to peak in years 2000-2015 (IPCC 4AR)
• “Common but differentiated responsibilities” according to UNFCCC mean developed
countries have to do more than the global average
EU climate policy context
• 20% reduction in emissions by 2020 compared with 1990
• 30% reduction in emissions by 2020 compared with 1990 if other developed and more
advanced developing countries agree to make comparable effort
• 20% renewable energy compared with total energy consumption
• 10% biofuels
• With a view to collectively reducing emissions in developed countries by 60-80% by 2050
 Considerable mitigation efforts will have to be made in all economic sectors
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European Commission
Regional Policy
Climate change mitigation: asymmetric impacts
Agriculture contributes 9% to total EU GHG emissions, emissions from agriculture are
decreasing (473 Tg in 2006)
If indirect emissions (e.g. N2O from fertilizer production) and emissions from energy use are
included then emissions around 20-30%
Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry net removals increasing (496 Tg in 2006)
Role for agriculture in mitigation:
• contribution to mitigation in the energy sector (biomass, biogas)
• Reduction of emissions in the agriculture sector
• Direct emissions:
• CH4 from livestock and anaerobic decomposition
• CO2 from fossil fuel use
• CO2 from land use change
• Indirect emissions:
• N2O emissions from fertilizer
• Increasing removals of CO2 from the atmosphere
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European Commission
Regional Policy
Climate change mitigation: asymmetric impacts
Regional growth
– mild impacts at aggregate level, if changes are gradual (effect of
climate change and energy package on GDP by 2020 between -0.70.7% of GDP for all MS)
– potentially strong regional impact
» strong impacts on energy intensive sectors such as transport and
heavy manufacturing
– strong role of innovation and technology in adaptation and mitigation
Sustainability
– possible win-win situations for energy efficient regions (economically in
GDP growth and employment, and environmentally)
– some adaptations towards challenges might lead to increases in energy
use (e.g. cooling in Mediterranean areas)
Equity
– effects on individual mobility
– Significant welfare effects for lower income households through high
carbon and energy prices
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European Commission
Regional Policy
Thank you for your attention!
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