Transcript Slide 1

International Aid and Tanzanian
Development
Prepared for the Conference on
50 Years of Development in Sub-Saharan Africa:
The Experience of Tanzania
University of Bradford – 29th-30th May 2014
Dr Michael Tribe
University of Bradford and
University of Strathclyde
29th May 2014
International Aid and Tanzanian Development
1. First, a selection of statistics to set the context – a
comparison between Tanzania, Ghana and Uganda
over the period from 1980 to 2012
2. Second, a run through some issues and/or
conclusions arising from the statistics
3. Third, some issues relating to Tanzanian ‘aid
experience’
50 Years of Development in SSA – Dr Michael Tribe
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Some Basics - 1
Comparative Basic Aid Statistics – Tanzania, Ghana and Uganda
2010
2011
2012
2010
2011
2012
Tanzania
Ghana
Net ODA (US$ m) 2,958 2,446 2,832 1,693 1,810 1,808
Bilateral Share
(%)
Net ODA / GNI
(%)
Population (m)
GNI per capita
(Atlas US$)
2010
2011
2012
Uganda
1,723 1,578 1,655
56
68
63
53
49
48
60
62
56
13.1
10.4
10.1
5.3
4.8
4.7
10.9
10.1
9.9
45.0
46.4
47.8
24.3
24.8
25.4
34.0
35.1
36.3
530
540
570
1,260
1,410
1,550
460
470
440
Source: OECD DAC Aid Statistics 2014 – online
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Some Basics - 2
Major Donors to Tanzania, Ghana and Uganda – 2011-12 average US$ m
USA
IDA
UK
AfDF
EU Institutions
Japan
Global Fund
Sweden
Denmark
Norway
IMF (Concessional Trust Funds)
Germany
Canada
Tanzania
555
404
224
146
145
134
125
121
119
105
Ghana
268
401
129
171
89
81
Uganda
396
188
149
144
160
63
87
80
66
70
185
89
86
55
Source: OECD DAC Aid Statistics 2014 – online
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Some Basics - 3
Tanzania
Ghana
Uganda
Source: OECD DAC Aid Statistics 2014 – online
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ODA in context
ODA as % of GNI
Tanzania
Ghana
Uganda
ODA as % of Govt
Expenditure
ODA per capita
< US$ (2011)
1.25/day
1990
2011
2001
2012
28.56
10.32
78.59
(2004-5
Budget)
70.31
(2009-10
Actual)
104.26
(1992)
116.91
(2007)
9.69
4.75
64.42
(2001)
21.52
(2012)
116.16
(1992)
231.95
(2006)
15.69
10.10
65.30
(2001)
49.62
(2012)
83.39
(1992)
152.67
(2009)
Sources: For all but Tanzanian ODA as % of Govt Expenditure – World Bank
World Development Indicators 2014 (ODA per capita US$1.25 per day author’s
calculations
For Tanzanian ODA as % of Govt Expenditure – Republic of Tanzania PRSP
2005 Table 8.1 and 2010 Table 7.2
50 Years of Development in SSA – Dr Michael Tribe
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GDP Growth
• Tanzania’s annual average GDP growth for 1990 to
2012 was 5.24% - amounting to a GDP in 2012
which was 3.34 times that of 1988 in real terms
• Ghana’s annual average GDP growth for 1990 to
2012 was 5.55% - amounting to a GDP in 2012
which was 3.62 times that of 1988 in real terms
• Uganda’s annual average GDP growth for 1990 to
2012 was 6.81% - amounting to a GDP in 2012
which was 4.81 times that of 1988 in real terms
•
All data calculated by the author at constant 2005 US$ prices from
the World Development Indicators
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Poverty Headcount and HDI
Poverty Headcount (%) < US$1.25 PPP per day
Tanzania
Ghana
1992
72.59
51.07
Most recent
67.87
28.59
(2007)
(2006)
Source: World Development Indicators 2014
Human Development Index – 1990 and 2012
Tanzania
Ghana
1990
0.353
0.427
2012
0.476
0.558
HDI Rank 2012
152
135
Source: UNDP HDR online 2014
50 Years of Development in SSA – Dr Michael Tribe
Uganda
70.01
38.01
(2009)
Uganda
0.306
0.456
161
8
Net Effect of International Flows
Net Effect of ODA, NGO, Remittances and Illicit Flows –
Tanzania, Ghana and Uganda – about 2012 – US$ millions
Tanzania
Ghana
Uganda
Net ODA Inflows
+2,436
+1,800
+1,582
Private ‘NGO’ Inflows*
+10
+58
+19
Personal Remittances
Inflows
Illicit Flows**
+59
+121
+642
+216
-55
-793
+2,721
+1,924
+1,450
Net Flows
Sources: Tables 3, 5, 13 and 16
* This data is from OECD sources, but is difficult to estimate – very recently www.d-portal.org
has published a new data compilation which will be included in my updated and complete paper
** This data is based on a recent report by Global Financial Integrity, and have been
corrected for what appears to be an error in consolidating their estimates – as yet I have
not received a reply to my enquiry about the data
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What are the Issues?
• The three economies reviewed show quite strong
sustained growth over a 30 year period, in two
cases recovering from significant decline in the
1970s and early 1980s
• Tanzania has received substantial amounts of ODA
through this period, and Ghana and Uganda
received substantial amounts of ODA following
establishment of stable governance in the 1980s
• Although there have been no systematic individual
country studies of the contribution of ODA to
economic growth it would be difficult to believe
that ODA has not made a positive contribution
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What are the Issues? - 2
• Recent cross-country economic studies of aid and
economic growth conclude that there is a positive
and significant, but not very strong, relationship
between aid inflows and growth – see Arndt et al.
2013; Clemens et al. 2012; and Lof et al. 2013 –
essentially rebutting the wild assertions of Moyo,
2009 and the arguments of Easterly, 2006.
• ODA has been running at a significant proportion
of GDP (and of foreign exchange receipts) over this
period – one analytical issue is related to ‘what is
the counterfactual?’ – what would the economic
performance have been in the absence of ODA?
• For Tanzania the poverty headcount appears to
have become somewhat ‘stuck’ although the HDI
indicator shows clear ‘improvement’
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What are the Issues? - 3
• For Ghana and Uganda the period under review has
seen a fall in the poverty headcount and an
‘improvement’ in the HDI indicator
• Has ODA contributed to poverty reduction in these
three countries over this period?
• Given the high proportion of foreign exchange
inflows contributed by ODA in these three countries
is there any danger of a ‘Dutch Disease’ factor
intervening?
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What are the Issues? - 4
• How have ‘governance’ factors fared relative to
ODA?
• What has been the experience with Budget Support?
• What has been the experience with public expenditure
management?
• To what extent has there been compliance with the
principles of the Paris Declaration?
• Is there any significant experience of corruption being
associated with ODA or with public expenditure
management?
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Specific Tanzanian Aid Issues
• Villagisation – Ujamaa Villages – attitude of donors
• Ujamaa – Arusha Declaration – attitude of donors
• TAZARA – Chinese Aid and priority for Zambian
copper exports following Rhodesian UDI
• Aid volatility – short-term variations (turning aid on
and off)
More recently
• Corruption and the Air Traffic Control Issue – who
is corrupt? Issue of corruption originating in donor
countries ....
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Positive Tanzanian attributes
• GoT established an “Assistance Strategy” in the
early 2000s which the donor community signed up
to
• GoT was ‘ahead of the game’ in this respect with
the main issues included in the Paris Declaration of
2005
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References
Arndt, C., Jones, S. and Tarp, F. 2013. Assessing Foreign Aid’s Long-Run Contribution to
Growth in Development. WIDER Working Paper No. 2013/072. Helsinki: UN University –
World Institute for Development Economics Research – downloaded from
www.wider.unu.edu
Clemens, M., Radelet, S., Bhavnani, R. and Bazzi, S. 2012 Counting Chickens when they
Hatch: Timing and the Effects of Aid on Growth. The Economic Journal, 122(561): 590617.
Easterly, W. 2006. The White man’s Burden: Why the West's Efforts to Aid the Rest have Done
so Much Ill and so Little Good. London: Penguin Books.
GPEDC. 2013. Guide to the Monitoring Framework of the Global Partnership. Paris and New
York: OECD and UNDP – downloaded from www.effectivecooperation.org
Kaberuka, D. 2011. Development and Aid in Africa: What have we learned from the past 50
years? Chapter 3 in OECD DAC. Development Co-operation Report 2011. Paris: OECD
DAC – downloadable from the OECD website: www.oecd.org
Kharas, H. 2007. Trends and Issues in Development Aid. Working Paper 1, Wolfensohn
Center for Development. Washington: Brookings Institution – downloadable from
www.brookings.edu/wolfensohncenter
Lof, M., Jemaneh, T. Mekasha and Tarp, F. 2013. Aid and income: Another time-series
perspective. WIDER Working Paper No. 2013/069. Helsinki: UN University – World
Institute for Development Economics Research – downloaded from www.wider.unu.edu
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Moyo, D. 2010. Dead Aid: How Aid is Not Working and How There is a Better Way for Africa .
Penguin Books: London.
OECD. 2005 and 2008. The Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness – and The Accra Agenda
for Action. Paris: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development –
downloadable from the OECD website:
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/11/41/34428351.pdf
OECD. 2011. Busan Partnership for Effective Development Co-operation. Paris: Organisation
for Economic Cooperation and Development – downloadable from the OECD website:
http://www.oecd.org/dac/aideffectiveness/49650173.pdf
OECD DAC Statistics
Oxford Policy Management. 2013. Tanzania Public Finance Management Reform Programme
Phase III Completion Report. Report prepared for Sida Tanzania and Ministry of Finance
of the Government of Tanzania. Oxford: Oxford Policy Management.
Republic of Tanzania. 2006. Joint Assistance Strategy for Tanzania. Dar es Salaam: Ministry
of Finance – downloaded from www.mof.go.tz/mofdocs 16th May 2014.
Selbervik, H. 1999. Aid and conditionality – The role of the bilateral donor: A case study of
Norwegian–Tanzanian aid relationship. A Report submitted to the Norwegian Ministry of
Foreign Affairs by the Chr. Michelsen Institute. Oslo: NORAD – downloadable from
www.norad.no
Severino, J-M., and Ray, O. 2009. The End of ODA: Death and Rebirth of a Global Public
Policy. Working Paper No. 167. Washington: Center for Global Development –
downloadable from: www.cgdev.org
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Severino, J-M. and Ray, O. 2010. The End of ODA (II): The Birth of Hypercollective Action.
CGD Working Paper 218, Washington, D.C.: Center for Global Development –
downloadable from: www.cgdev.org
Sumner, A. and Tribe, M. 2011.The Case for Aid in Fiscally Constrained Times: Morals, Ethics
and Economics. Journal of International Development. Vol 23 pages 782-801.
Tribe, M. 2013. Aid and Development: Issues and Reflections. Discussion Paper 13-09
Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde May – downloadable from
http://www.strath.ac.uk/economics/departmentalresearch/discussionpapers/
Tribe, M. and Wanambi, N. 2003. Development Expenditure Management in Uganda. In Potts,
D., Ryan, P. and Toner, A. (eds.). Development Planning and Poverty Reduction. London:
Palgrave Macmillan: 148-163.
World Bank. 2014a. World Development Indicators 2014. Accessed from UK Data Service at
http://discover.ukdataservice.ac.uk
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