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LOS PAÍSES ANDINOS Miércoles 9.10 Los dos grupos. Lectura: Los Andes están creciendo LOS PAÍSES ANDINOS Andean Community of Nations http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andean_Community_of_Nations Current members: Bolivia (1969) Colombia (1969) Ecuador (1969) Peru (1969) Associate members:[6] Argentina (2005) Brazil (2005) Paraguay (2005) Uruguay (2005) Chile (2006) Observer countries:[7] Spain Former full members: Venezuela (1973–2006), joined Mercosur Chile (full member 1969-1976, observer 1976-2006, associate member since 2006) http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/?gclid=CNaE_a-Ih7oCFYm_3god824AIQ International Human Development Indicators Ecuador at a glance: 2013-17 OVERVIEW Ecuador is currently enjoying a period of relative political stabiilty. After five years in office, the president, Rafael Correa, remains far more popular than his recent predecessors. Despite some spending contraints as a result of lower oil prices, we expect the Correa administration to maintain its expansive policy. The government will continue to encourage private investment, and it is hoped that development of the mining sector will increase levels of foreign direct investment. However, persistent intervention by the government will act as a deterrent, as will the unpredictable policy environment. Fuente: EIU ECUADOR Economic policy outlook Policy will be geared towards maintaining high levels of public investment during the forecast period. However, with oil prices below their early-year highs, this will be increasingly challenging in the short term. Economic forecast We expect real GDP growth to slow sharply in 2012-13, to 4.4% in the former year and 4% in the latter (from 7.8% in 2011), as the government struggles to increase public spending beyond the high levels seen in recent years, amid weaker oil prices Fuente: EIU Peru at a glance: 2013-16 OVERVIEW Ollanta Humala, will implement pragmatic and centrist policies. Opposition from the left, in the legislature and at the local level, will intensify. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects macroeconomic policy management to remain broadly prudent under the Humala government, in the context of a relatively weak global outlook and the persistent risk of a financial crisis originating in the euro zone. After growing by 6.9% in 2011, the economy slowed to 5.6% in 2012, supported by still-strong private investment. Assuming that global conditions improve, GDP growth will pick up to an annual average of 5.8% in 2013-16. Spending on public works and social programmes. The current-account deficit will widen, to 3.1% of GDP in 2016, driven by a widening income deficit and a narrower trade surplus. Fuente: EIU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yqxf24thMK4 PERU Political outlook We expect social conflicts surrounding large-scale mining projects, which escalated in July, to continue, impairing political stability. Economic policy outlook With inflationary pressures easing, the BCRP left its benchmark reference rate on hold, at 4.25%, for the 16th consecutive month at its August monetary policy meeting. Economic forecast May's monthly GDP index surprised on the upside, growing by 6.5% year on year. However, confidence surveys suggest growth will slow. Fuente: EIU Perú Peru's Economic Growth https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvVxbKFYH4o Callao http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixy_lqbVD7g&feature=related TURISMO: Puerto Maldonado (Provincia Madre de Dios) Partes 1-4: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZM4Czyo3ws http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=HjOsbTeCHAs&feature=endscreen http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=RG53TBm-t58&feature=endscreen http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=HnHNU28nmuY&feature=endscreen Bolivia at a glance: 2013-17 OVERVIEW The inability of the left-wing president, Evo Morales, to satisfy the rising demands of diverse social groups will fuel public discontent, but political instability will be contained by continued high social spending. Stringent rules on foreign ownership and profit repatriation, widespread corruption and a weak judicial system will impair the business environment and limit foreign and domestic private-sector participation. Assuming that there will be no prolonged or sharp fall in gas and oil prices, Bolivia's non-financial public sector (NFPS) will remain in surplus throughout the forecast period, even as public expenditure remains high. After an estimated expansion of 5% in 2012, GDP growth will moderate, but at an average of 4.5% in 2013-17 it will remain strong, supported by continued growth in domestic demand and rising natural gas production. After easing to an estimated average of 4.7% in 2012, inflation will rise in 2013-14, as high public spending puts upward pressure on prices. However, continued fuel subsidies will contain price expectations in the medium term. The Banco Central de Bolivia (BCB, the Central Bank) has kept the currency fixed in 2012, but it will resume its policy of appreciation in the medium term, bringing the boliviano to Bs6.58:US$1 by end2017. Fuente: EIU (October 2012) BOLIVIA Political outlook Despite slow progress on his reform agenda, Mr Morales is likely to win a new five-year term in December 2014, aided by an expanding economy and the lack of a strong challenger. Economic policy outlook The state's lack of experience in industrial management and a weak institutional framework will lead to inefficiencies and delays in 2013-17. This will be aggravated by Mr Morales's heterodox policies and continued threat of strikes and protests that will distort public investment. Economic forecast The current-account surplus will narrow to an average of 3.3% of GDP in 2013-17, compared with an average of 5.5% in 2008-12, as import spending rises sharply, on the back of rising domestic demand. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWwdKKEGxkE Fuente: EIU (October 2012)