Transcript The Economy and Women

The Economy and Women
Sharon White – Director General,
Public Spending
International Women’s Day
8 March 2012
Outline
• UK Economy in 2011
• Outlook for 2012
• Impact on women
- Labour market;
- Spending cuts
• Policy response
2
UK Economy 2011
3
OBR Assessment at Autumn Statement
• High commodity prices pushed up inflation,
depressing real incomes
• Uncertainty from Eurozone weakened
confidence
• Impact of 2008-09 financial crisis on potential
growth worse than previously thought
• Lower forecast growth - and worsened public
finances – spending cuts will extend to middle
of next Parliament at least.
4
Outlook for 2012
5
Choppy pattern of GDP growth
Quarterly GDP growth
(%)
OBR’s Autumn Statement
forecast
2011
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0.4
0.1
0.5
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.6
0.3
6
Inflation is coming down
CPI inflation (%)
September 2011
5.2
January 2012
3.6
March 2012 (Bank of England forecast)
3.4
June 2012 (Bank of England forecast)
3.0
7
30
29.3
20
29.2
10
29.1
0
29.0
-10
28.9
-20
28.8
-30
28.7
-40
28.6
-50
2010
Millions, 3 month centred average
Thousands
Labour market continues to be
40
29.4
weak
28.5
2011
2012
Change in claimant count (left axis)
Employment (right axis)
8
Eurozone threat remains, but appears to be
receding
Evolution of consensus growth forecasts for
2012
•
Conditions have generally improved
over last two months.
•
The anticipated contraction this year
may be less severe than expected.
Forward looking indicators
suggesting stabilisation in economic
activity.
9
Impact on Women
10
Labour market
•
Female employment fell by less in the recession (<1%)
than male employment (3.8%)
•
Reflects greater resilience to downturn of part-time working
and public sector jobs
•
Female employment has bounced back by less in recovery
than men’s though much closer to peak levels (women:
60,000 below peak; men: 400,000 below)
•
But risk to women of falling public sector employment
11
Public Sector cuts
•
Fiscal consolidation mostly through
spending cuts not tax rises
•
No gender breakdown available but
protected areas of spending include:
• Health
• Schools
• Aid budget
• Defence equipment
•
Welfare (tax credits and social grants
benefits) being cut alongside public
services
12
Policy Response
13
•
Getting public finances back on track: maintain market
confidence; keep interest rates low
•
Maintaining flow of credit: Quantitative easing; credit
easing – especially for small and medium sized
businesses
•
Reforming financial system: New regulation to reduce risk
of another crisis
•
Growth strategy: Big boost to infrastructure
14