Transcript Europeanization and the Future of Central and Eastern

Europeanization and the
Future of Central and Eastern
Europe
Kong Tianping
Institute of European Studies
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Factsheet

Great transformation (1989-1990)

Copenhagen criteria as rules to define whether a
given country is eligible to join the EU (June 1993)

2004 CEE8 joined the EU, big eastward expansion

2007 Romania and Bulgaria became the member
states of the EU.

Schengen enlargement, CEE 8 joined the
Schengen area (December 2007)

EU and Croatia concluded accession
negotiations (June 30, 2011)

Introduction of the Euro (Slovenia Jan. 2007,
Slovakia, Jan. 2009, Estonia Jan. 2011)

Presidency of the Council of the European
Union (Slovenia 2008; Czech Republic 2009;
Hungary and Poland 2011)
How to define Europeanization?

Europeanization is a means and an end; it is
method as well as substance; it is a project and
a vision. It signifies a certain political,
socioeconomic, and cultural reality, but it is
also an ideology, a symbol, and a myth. It has
universal value by virtue of its historical,
holistic, and globalizing nature. At the same
time, its impact has internal consequences for
Europe and an external significance for the rest
of the world. (Othon Anastasaki)

Europeanization as "processes of (a)
construction (b) diffusion and (c)
implementation of formal and informal rules,
procedures, policy paradigms, styles, "ways of
doing things," and shared beliefs and norms
(Radaelli)

Europeanization as an end: different statuses
from candidate to membership

Europeanization as a means of insititutional
change and modernazation: transition to
democracy and market economy. CEE
experiences

Europeanization as a two-way process:
EU: imposition of eu criteria, norms, rules of
game, legislatures
CEE: Introduction of eu criteria, norms, rules
of game, implementation of eu legislatures

Some misconceptions
Accession means the end of Europeanization
Accession means the end of the institutional
change
Accession would mean all the country's
problems would be solved.

Europeanization is the way towards prosperity
How does Europeanization
transform CEE?

Institutional convergence: make the
institutions more europeanized

Policy convergence:

Identity formation

Political elite's european orientation
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accelerate catching-up process
growth matters for the catching-up
Catch-up Process in CEE 10
(GDP per capita in PPP, % of the EU-15
average)
Country
1989
1997
2003
2007
2008
Czech
Republic
75
63
65
73
73.9
Estonia
54
36
48
65
61.0
Hungary
56
45
56
57
56.4
Lithuania
52
33
43
54
50.4
Poland
38
41
43
49
50.1
Slovakia
59
45
49
61
64.0
Slovenia
74
67
71
82
82.5
Bulgaria
46
23
29
34
35.6
Romania
34
23
28
36
38.5
There is no guarantee for the catch-up
closing the development gap between the CEE10 and the EU-15 countries remains the main
challenge
A short break from 2008-2009, CEE felt the
pinch of the global financial crisis
Catch-up process starts again
Europeanization and Prospect of
CEE

Europe is in crisis
How serious is the crisis?
Europe's Sovereign Debt Crisis，PIIGs in trouble
Greece:
huge mountain of debt 340 bn euros;
two bailout (110bn euros for each programme)
Greece's ability to repay its debt is questioned
Possible scenario: default or exit from euro zone
Irish Republic
Banking sysytem collapsed
State took control and recapitalized them(70bn
euros)
IMF and EU bailout (85bn euros)

Portugal
A shrinking economy straining its budget
Bailout 78bn euros

Italy
Growing debt load in relation to GDP - the
second-highest behind Greece in the eurozone
Too big to be bailed out
third largest economy in Europe and one of the
largest bond markets in Europe

Spain
The housing boom turned to bust, leaving the
country's banks loaded with bad debt and the
highest unemployment rate in the eurozone
an economy twice the size of the other three
combined (Greece, Purtugal and Ireland)
Contagion of the crisis (market dynamic :
domino effect of the markets when its debt
rating was lowered)
So far, no solution in sight
Pessimistic point of view:
"Euro is breaking down" (Greenspan)
The Crashing Euro (George Soros)
Europe is in danger over eurozone crisis. "If the
eurozone breaks up, the European Union will
not be able to survive, with all the
consequences that one can
imagine."(Rostowski)
Eurozone crisis threatens world economy (IMF)
The time for muddling through is fast slipping
away ( Zoellick, head of the WB)

Way out
status quo: a currency not backed by a treasury;
joint borders without a common migration
policy; and a technocratic foreign policy
divorced from national sources of power
(Mark Leonard )
What is lacking is political will
Fiscal union or political union?
Crisis (危机 in chinese）means both danger and
opportunity
The Future of CEE

the future of the CEE depends on the success
of Europe project

EU enlargement will slow down after Croatia
accession as eurozone crisis last many years
ahead

Convegence or divergence in CEE
Central Europe will be better off than West
Balkans
The more European, the more successful

New member states will be hesitate to join the
eurozone before eurozone get its house in
order
no opt-out
any exception? case of Hungary

Don't forget about the West Balkans
West Balkans is more important than Eastern
neighbors and Southern neighbors
Kosovo issue
trouble spots in Serbia: Sandzak and the south Serbia
Political stalemate in Bosnia (Federation and Republika
Srpska)
Macedonia name row with Greece
nation-building and state-buiding at initial stage
Back to the past or return to Europe?
Can EU change the West Balkans?

If europeanization goes well in CEE, the CEE
will have a bright future.
europeanization
Institutional change
economic growth
Thank you!