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Religion and War, Religion and Peace: Evidence for a Nuanced Relationship Ian Hansen and Ara Norenzayan Department of Psychology, University of British Columbia Abstract . Unlike orthogonal intrinsic and extrinsic religiosity in the religion and prejudice literature (Allport & Ross, 1967), prayer and exclusivity were positively correlated in the BBC sample, often strongly. Catholic: r(1644) = Orthodox: r(832)= .26*** .31*** Jewish: r(866) = Hindu: r(1003) = .39*** .17*** Buddhist: r(254) = Atheist: r(856) = .21** .14*** Other Xian: r(2234)= .38*** Muslim: r(1962) = .07** All: r(10068) = .40*** ** p < .01 *** p < .001 Yet when prayer and exclusivity were included in multiple regression (logistic) to predict scapegoating (controlling for national rank in GDP/capita, age and sex), exclusivists were 30% more likely to scapegoat than nonexclusivists, while those who did NOT pray regularly were 50% more likely to scapegoat than those who did. Both of these effects were highly significant, p < .001. 0.8 Exclusivity Prayer Key: Lack of freedom: lack of civil and political liberty as assessed by Freedom House, 2005 Refugees per capita: Total refugees who fled the country in 2003 Arms vol/gdp: Dollar volume of arms imports and exports as % of GDP, 2003 Military spending/gdp: Military spending as a % of GDP 0 Scapegoating other religions -0.8 arms vol /gdp Source: BBC survey of 10,068 people in 10 nations military spending/gdp Prayer and exclusivity Independent relationship of religion variables to war and oppression Refugees per capita (1)Would you say you pray... [regularly = 1, other response = 0] (2) My God (beliefs) is the only true God (beliefs) [agree = 1, other response = 0] (3)I blame people of other religions for much of the trouble in this world. [agree = 1, other response = 0] Using data from the United Nations and Freedom House, we assessed 10 nations on demographics suggestive of war and oppression, and then predicted variation in individual-level exclusivity and regular prayer based on each of these demographics. Lack of freedom This study is based on an analysis of a survey conducted in 2004 by the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) on representative samples in the US, UK, Israel, India, South Korea, Indonesia, Nigeria, Mexico, Russia and Lebanon. Roughly 1000 from each country participated (total 10068). This study focuses on responses to the following items, the first two indicating ways of being religious (devotion or exclusivity), the third indicating scapegoating: War and oppression Does religion foster war and oppression or lay foundations for peace and freedom, or both? Two relevant aspects of religion are prayer (indicative of devotion) and the exclusivist belief that one’s religious beliefs are the only true beliefs (indicative of rigid attachment to a coalition/ ideology). While these two aspects of religion were positively correlated in all faith groups we examined, they made opposite predictions about religious scapegoating. Also, when the ten nations we examined were ordered by demographic indicators of war and oppression, this ordering was always negatively related to prayer but orthogonal or positively related to exclusivity. Bars represent independent unstandardized betas in separate logistic regressions with national score on each X variable predicting regular prayer or exclusivity while controlling for the other along with religious attendance, age, sex, and GDP/capita The following graph shows how prayer and exclusivity—though positively related—have an opposite independent relationship to scapegoating. The graph shows the full sample divided by regular prayer and exclusivity and the proportion in each group Conclusion who scapegoat other religions. Note that exclusivists are generally more likely to scapegoat, yet those who Our findings support Allport’s (1954,444) classic pray regularly are less likely. insight: religion paradoxically “makes…and unmakes …prejudice” (and apparently also scapegoating, 0.3 oppression, war, and militarism). Yet our measures 0.25 illuminate how deep the paradox is: while prayer and Not pray exclusive attachment to the dogmas of one’s faith are regularly 0.2 strongly related, one predicts peace and the other Pray 0.15 predicts war. Religion, cheered and vilified as much regularly as human nature itself, appears to be just as complex. SCAPEGOATING Introduction 0.1 References 0.05 0 NOT EXCLUSIVIST EXCLUSIVIST Allport , G. W. (1954). The nature of prejudice. Cambridge, Mass: Addison-Wesley. Allport, G. W. & Ross, J. M. (1967). Personal religious orientation and prejudice. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 5, 432-43.