Transcript GDP, Exports and Welfare, FTA all commodities

FTA South East Asia
Tariff removal in SEA
(Presented by Sarfraz and Eric)
 Scenario
1: China, India, Malaysia,
Indonesia, Rest of SEA
Extension : restriction of FTA to priority
commodities for India
 Scenario
2: India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Rest
of SEA (without China)
Extension : restriction of FTA (without China)
to priority commodities for India
FTA all commodities
GDP, Exports and Welfare
Variables
FTA with China
FTA no China
INDIA
0.109
0.138
CHINA
-0.002
0.0
INDIA
-198.4
259.14
CHINA
940.1
-20.84
INDIA
13.14
8.38
CHINA
1.93
-0.04
INDIA
15.74
10.20
CHINA
3.38
-0.09
GDP (qgdp)
Welfare (total)
Volume of total exp
(qxwreg)
Volume of total import
(qiwreg)
Results for FTA

Scenario 1 and 2 : for all commodities,
-
GDP : No change in GDP for China, whereas there is
more gain for India if China is excluded from FTA
Exports : Increasing of export for India for all
commodities in both scenario, however, less increasing
(on average) if China is excluded from FTA
Welfare : the total welfare turns to be in favor of India
when China is excluded from FTA  For India,
-
-
exclusion of China from FTA, looks more
beneficiary for India
Priority Commodities
1- PDR : Paddy rice
Other commodities
2- WHT : Wheat
Manufacturing,
Services, Livestock,
and rest of agr.
commodities
3- SGR : Sugar
4- VOL : Vegetable oils and fats
5- PCR : Processed rice
These crops are more beneficially for
India on the base total volume of
export
FTA in priority commodities
GDP, Exports and Welfare
Variables
Scenario 1
(priority
commodities)
Scenario 2
(priority
commodities)
INDIA
0.182
0.182
CHINA
0.0
0.001
INDIA
6.39
6.70
CHINA
-0.277
-0.459
INDIA
597.3
595.21
CHINA
7.3
38.58
GDP (qgdp)
Exports (average,
qxs)
Welfare (total)
Results for FTA, restricted to
priority commodities
Extensions
- The result is more interesting in case of
India if FTA is restricted to the priority
commodities

-
-
No change (or very little) in GDP, Export
increasing rate (in term of average) and Welfare
for India, whether China is in FTA or not
The result indicates that India turns out to get the
highest total welfare