Transcript Portfolio Performance and Operational Quality in ECSPF

Migration and Remittances
Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union
Willem van Eeghen
World Bank
Europe and Central Asia Region
Key Messages
Migration in ECA is unique, significant, and likely to
grow
Remittances are the second most important source
of financing for many and the first for poorest
Good economic policies and institutions maximize
gains for sending and receiving countries and
migrants (“Triple Win”)
Current immigration policies, largely bilateral, may
not stem large undocumented migration
Further study and policy experimentation may help
overcome the limitations of the existing framework
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Migration has followed a biaxial pattern: Eastern
to Western Europe and Low Income CIS to
Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine
3
A lot of early migration was driven
by civil conflict and war
4
Net migration rates were volatile in Central Asia
during the early years of transition
Net Migration Rates 1989-2003
(Per 1000 Population)
10
5
0
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
Kyrgyz Rep.
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Note: Calculated from residual method.
Source: National Statistical Offices. World Bank Staff Estimates.
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This volatility is consistent with patterns
found in other parts of the CIS...
Net Migration Rates 1989-2003
(Per 1000 Population)
10
8
6
4
2
0
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
Moldova
Armenia
Russia
Ukraine
Belarus
Azerbaijan
Note: Calculated from residual method.
Source: National Statistical Offices. World Bank Staff Estimates.
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…and Central and Eastern Europe
during the early 1990s
Net Migration Rates 1989-2003
(Per 1000 Population)
10
5
0
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
Latvia
Lithuania
Estonia
Poland
Czech Republic
Hungary
Bulgaria
Romania
Slovenia
Note: Calculated from residual method.
Source: National Statistical Offices. World Bank Staff Estimates.
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Pool of labor within ECA…Central
Asia, Caucasus, Balkans
* Data are from 2000-2003
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Losing population to emigration and
demographics…Baltics, SE Europe,
Poland, Ukraine and Moldova
* Data are from 2000-2003
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Declining population despite
immigration…Central Europe, Russia
and Belarus
* Data are from 2000-2003
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It is likely that migration will
increase for five main reasons
Differentials in expected quality of life
increasing
Demand for non-traded services from
increasingly affluent and large middle class
(demand needs to be factored into policy)
Much lower transportation costs (esp. low
cost airlines) and easier to keep in touch
Only quick way to build savings and human
capital
Demographic decline in Europe and parts of
the CIS (especially Russia)-now at an
interlude
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Remittances are large as a portion of
GDP in many ECA countries
Workers Remittances + Compensation of Employees to GDP (2006)
Bulgaria
Over 20%
Georgia
Over 30%
Kyrgyz Republic
Albania
Serbia and Montenegro
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Armenia
Moldova
Tajikistan
0
5
10
15
Source: IMF Balance of Payments Statistics
20
25
30
35
40
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Several ECA countries lead the world
in remittances receipts
Workers Remittances + Compensation of Employees to GDP (2006)
Kiribati
Guatemala
West Bank and Gaza
Gambia, The
Kyrgyz Republic
Cape Verde
Nicaragua
Philippines
Albania
Nepal
Serbia and Montenegro
Jamaica
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Jordan
El Salvador
Armenia
Honduras
Haiti
Lebanon
Lesotho
Guyana
Tonga
Moldova
Tajikistan
0
5
10
Source: IMF Balance of Payments Statistics.
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20
25
30
35
40
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The Use of Remittance Transfer
Channels Vary…
Use of Remittance Distribution Channels
(Pct of Migrants Reporting Use of Channel)
Self Delivery
1%
Debit Card
0%
Bank Transfer
30%
MTOs
31%
Informal Transfer
Offices
1%
Post Office
7%
Friends/Contacts
30%
Source: World Bank Surveys.
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Transfer costs can be high
Average Costs and Amounts of Remittance Transfers
8
700
Avg
Remittance
USD
7
600
Avg Costs
(Pct)
6
500
5
400
4
300
3
200
2
100
1
%
USD
800
0
0
Georgia
Kyrgyz Republic
Bulgaria
Bosnia & Herz
Romania
Tajikistan
Based on Survey Responses of Returned Migrants. Values of bars reflected in USD per the left axis and the value of the line
(average costs) reflected in percentages per the right axis.
Source: World Bank Surveys.
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The majority of remittances in Central
Asia go to fund basic subsistence
Households' Uses of International Remittances in Georgia, Kyrgyz Rep, and Tajikistan (%)
Savings
40
Other
35
Investment in Business
30
Charity
25
Education of children
20
15
Starting a new business
10
Food and Clothing
5
0
Buying a car
Medical expenses
Buying land
Education
Wedding, celebration, funeral
Buying property
Home repair
Source: World Bank Surveys.
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Policy experimentation and pilots
could be useful
World Bank is working on implementing pilot
migration schemes with several EU memberstates
More information and data are available at:
http://www.worldbank.org/eca/migration
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