Transcript Measuring Empowerment - New Rules for Global Finance

Social Analysis in PSIA
Renate Kirsch
Social Development Department
March, 2006
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Outline
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Why do we emphasize on social analysis as
an integral part of the PSIA approach?
How do you conduct Social Analysis in
PSIA?
 Missing: How to integrate economic and
social analysis
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PSIA process issues
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Poverty and Social Impact Analysis
(PSIA)
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PSIA is the analysis of intended and unintended consequences of
actual or potential policy interventions on the well-being of different
social groups, with a particular focus on the poor and vulnerable
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PSIA focuses on
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The distributional impacts on different stakeholders,
income and non–income dimensions
The positive and negative impacts of reform
Goals
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Understand better the likely impacts of reforms on different groups
(disaggregated along ethic, gender, age, spatial and livelihood lines)
Improving quality: Promoting pro-poor reforms
Facilitating the process: Building a broad constituency for change
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Poverty and Social Impact Analysis
A 10 Step approach?
1. Selecting the Reform
2. Identifying stakeholders
3. Understanding transmission channels
4. Assessing institutions
5. Gathering data and information
6. Analyzing impacts
7. Enhancing design and compensatory schemes
8. Assessing risks
9. Establishing monitoring and evaluation systems
10. Fostering policy debate and feedback into policy choice
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PSIA: Main Elements
4 Main Analytical Elements of a PSIA:
- Stakeholder Analysis
- Institutional Analysis
- Impact Analysis
-Risk Analysis
Activities:
- Policy dialogue process
- Monitoring during
implementation
Social Analysis  brings different research focus,  generates
different information,  generated via different set of tools and
methods
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Social Analysis in PSIA
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Institutional: the “rules of the game” that people develop to govern
group behavior and interaction in political, economic and social
spheres of life
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Political: the structure of power relations and often-entrenched
interests of different stakeholders
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Social: the social relationships that govern interaction at different
organizational levels, including households, communities and social
groups.
 Important to signal that reforms
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are manifested through institutional mechanisms
have important political economy dimensions
have differential impacts on different social groups
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What is the value added of social
analysis in PSIA?
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Explains how social identity and social relations may
affect reform outcomes and impacts (ethnic minorities in
Laos)
Analysis of informal rules and behaviors helps to
understand implementation issues and constraints
(Tanzania Crop Board)
Focus on Analysis of interests and influence of different
stakeholders helps to understand effects of political
economy (Indonesia Imported Rice Tariff Pricing)
Helps to identify socio-political and institutional risks
(Zambia land reform)
Emphasis on PSIA process and dialogue helps to identify
bottlenecks and preconditions for ownership of reforms
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How to conduct Social Analysis in
PSIA?
Toolkit for Institutional, Political and Social
Analysis in PSIA (TIPS)
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The Sourcebook describes good practice
techniques for institutional, political and social
analysis in PSIA
Based on lessons learned from five years of
operational experience by World Bank, DFID, and
other partners
The Sourcebook does not represent operational
policy and does not prescribe minimum
requirements for PSIA.
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PSIA Transmission mechanisms
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Prices
Employment
Access to goods and services
Assets
Transfers and taxes
Authority:
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covers changes in power, structures and processes.
Reforms often result in changes in decision making and in new
formulations of rights, obligations, incentives and sanctions that in
turn will influence the behavior of government actors and citizens.
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A framework for Social Analysis
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1.1. Understanding country context
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Questions: What is the significance of:
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Historical context
Political-ideological climate
Political-institutional culture
Economic and social make-up
Tools:
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Country Social Analysis
Drivers of Change
Power Analysis
Governance Questionnaire
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Country Social Analysis (CSA)
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CSA is an upstream, political economy analysis that seeks to inform
policy dialogue and to improve the effectiveness and sustainability of
development interventions
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provide recommendations for the removal of barriers to equal
opportunities for participating in development, accessing public
institutions and holding them accountable,
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The CSA framework analyzes the interaction between two dimensions:
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Social diversity, assets, and livelihoods
 What is the existing distribution of and access to assets and services across different social
groups? What is the impact of that distribution in the livelihoods and coping strategies of
the poor?
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Power, institutions, and governance
 What are the institutions that mediate access of the poor to assets and services? How do
these institutions impact policy making and resource reallocation ?
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Country Social Analysis:
Guinea Bissau
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Institutional context of the post-conflict period: analysis of political
economy factors that contribute to understand its current state of
institutional fragility and political and macroeconomic instability
Macroeconomic and fiscal policies for promoting sociopolitical stability
and growth: the analysis reviews recent economic performance, and
explores policy options for preserving sociopolitical stability
Agriculture sector and poverty reduction: impact of transactions costs on
income generation and poverty reduction in the cashew sector. Attention to
the need to diversify agricultural output
Education and health: Impact of cost recovery and functioning of the
service delivery system.
Poverty analysis: an in-depth analysis of the socioeconomic profile,
determinants of poverty and livelihoods of the poor using the 2002 ILAP
and the 2005 QS and rapid appraisal data
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CSA: Guinea Bissau
Recommendations
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Poverty analysis: Develop a coherent and reliable poverty database over
time
Institutional: Enhance political stability in order to mitigate risks of
conflict as experienced in the past. Address:
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Macro-Fiscal policies: pursue essential expenditure programs in order
to preserve social and political stability
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security issues (improving living conditions in military barracks downsizing
the armed forces, reforming the pension system, and balancing the ethnic
composition of the security sector).
Land: implement the new Land Law in order to provide a legal and
regulatory framework. Update the cadastre (to facilitate thee
implementation of a land reform)
Short-term: paying salaries, delivering social services, improving living
conditions in military barracks, rehabilitating basic utility services);
Medium term: reducing the wage bill in non-productive segments of the
public administration in the context of a PSR program
Agricultural development and poverty alleviation:
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Increase employment generation and value added: cashew processing
Increasing food security and diversifying the growth base: (fruit exports and
rice production for internal consumption)
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1.2. Understanding policy reform context
1.2.1. Macro-level stakeholder analysis
 Questions: Who are the stakeholders? What is their
position with respect to policy change? What motivates
them?
 Tools: Policy interest matrix
Political mapping
1.2.1. Macro-level institutional analysis
 Questions: What are the institutional rules and
relationships that influence policy reform?
 Tools: Network analysis
Transaction cost analysis
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Political mapping: Import tariff removal
on agricultural staple
Opposition sectors
Support sectors
International
NGOs
External
actors
Sector
position
Anti-system
Social
sectors
Small
farmers in
Region X
Legal
opposition
Opposition sectors
World Bank,
IMF, WTO
Ideological
support
Core
support
Ideological
support
Legal
opposition
Anti-system
Urban
consumers
Political
actors
Opposition
socialist
party
Pressure
groups
Farmworker
federation
Opposition
Neoliberal
party
Rural
Municipal
govts
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Network Analysis: How GOG agencies are linked by their
expressed priorities with respect to the Ghana Poverty
Reduction Strategy
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2. Understanding the policy
implementation process
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Analysis of the process of implementation allows us to
explore how, why and under what conditions a policy
intervention might work, or fail
Objective: a greater understanding of the contextual
factors, mechanisms and processes underlying a policy’s
success or failure.
Stakeholders: focuses on interests and the relative importance and
influence of different interests groups and actors and the role each might play
in the implementation process
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Institutions:
as a sets of rules that govern individual and collective
behavior. Assesses whether institutions mediate and distort the anticipated
poverty and social impact of policy reform
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Institutions may be formal ( legal systems, property rights, enforcement
mechanisms); or informal, (cultural practices and social norms)
Institutions operate and influence behavior in different domains of daily life:
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the state domain (governing justice, political processes and service delivery),
the market domain (governing credit, labor and goods) and
the societal domain (governing community and family behavior).
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2. Understanding the policy
implementation process
2.1. Meso-level Stakeholder Analysis
Objective: To test assumptions about the interests of
social actors.
Tools:
Stakeholder analysis matrices
Micro-political mapping
Force field analysis
2.2. Meso-level Institutional analysis
Objective: To test assumptions about the social rules
governing the implementation of policy
Tools:
Organizational (static and process) mapping
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High
Stakeholders Analysis
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6
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Influence over decision
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Low
Benefit/Support
Neutral
Harm/Oppose
Effects of Tariff Reforms
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Legend
Government
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National Government
National Unions
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Ministry of Finance
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Civil Servants Association
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Ministry of Energy
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Ghana Bar Association
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Ghana Water Co. Ltd.
Endusers
Residential Consumers
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Non-Residential Consumers
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SLT Customers
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VALCO
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Irrigation Farmers
Trades Union Congress
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NDPC
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Interest Groups
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Association of Ghana Industries
Civil Society Organisation
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Ghana Chamber of Mines
Utilities
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Consumers Association of Ghana
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Ghana National Association of Consumers
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ISODEC
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Energy Foundation
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Media
Political Parties
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VRA/NED
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7
ECG
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8
New Patriotic Party
TICO
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National Democratic Congress
Convention Peoples Party
Regulators
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10
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Peoples National Convention
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Others
PURC
Energy Commission
Development Partners
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World Bank
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IMF
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0
DfID
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0
DANIDA
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Analytical sequencing in Organizational mapping
Figure 4.1. Analytical Sequencing in Organizational Mapping
Static Mapping
Process Tracing
Process Mapping
Identify and place
actors in a spatial map
Trace cause-effect
flows in key processes
between actors
Map out the dynamics
and relations between
actors
Examples:
Chad cotton
Examples:
Chittagong port
Examples:
Chad cotton
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Cotton flow  decrease in quality?
“White as
snow” … but
always
Producersdowngraded!
Accord d’Ouverture
Interface
CT resp.
for quality
of cotton
after
signing of
Accord…
in theory
Marche Autogere
Convoyer
He “travels with the
cotton” … and with
bribes, in case cotton
has been
downgraded
Transporters
CotonChad
Ginnery
Commission de
Classement
Technical
Transformation
and Production
Biased balance
of power
Duala
97% first
class
cotton
-Japan
-France
-Europe
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3. Understanding the impacts of policy
reform
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Objective: examining the likely or actual impact of policy reform at the meso and micro
levels
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Social models are applied
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Methods and data
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evaluating winners and losers
understanding how different social groups act in the face of the events and how
institutions impact on their lives,
Tools: Analytical frameworks that provide a “theory of change” and employ concepts
of opportunity structure, shocks, assets, entitlements, capabilities
Objective: Employing a common set of questions on impacts, linked to the
transmission channels
Tools: A range of methods that generate both qualitative and quantitative data
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Impact analysis: Methods and data
The Method-Data Framework
CONTEXTUAL METHODS
Participatory methods
Ethnographic investigations
Rapid assessments
QUAL DATA
Qualitative module of questionnaire
survey
Source: Adapted from Hentschel (1999)
Longitudinal village surveys
Consumer Assessment
QUANT DATA
Household and health surveys
Epidemiological surveys
National census
NON-CONTEXTUAL METHODS
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4. Policy Analysis: Assessing
uncertainties and risks to policy reform
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Objective: Assessing how confident we are that the
predicted impacts will occur?
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Risk assessment: utilizing PSIA data and analysis to
identify and map the risks to policy reform.
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Institutional risks, political economy, exogenous, and country risks
Scenario analysis help us choose the policy option that is
most likely to result in our desired outcome
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(4 steps: Identify the counterfactual, Identify scenarios for policy reform,
Analyze the impact of each scenario against the counterfactual, Compare
and choose the preferred scenario)
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Challenges
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Improving methodological rigor
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Use of standardized tools and field manuals to ensure consistency and
replicability
Make assumptions transparent
Aligning economic and social analytic tools
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Integrate methods from the beginning and iteratively
Use different techniques for triangulation
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Strengthen in-country capacity for PSIA
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Enhance policymakers ability to review results and consider policy
alternatives
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Results have to be transparent, credible and easy to understand and
communicate
Analysis will have to be disclosed for it to be useful for policy dialogue
Provide govt. and key stakeholders evidence to consider to inform policy
debate and enhance ownership
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Importance of process
The policy process is critical for analysis to
have meaningful impact on policy
 Distinction between the process of
undertaking PSIA from the policy process
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The latter is nested in country strategies and
policy dialogue such as PRSPs
 e.g., the World Bank has a separate GPN on
participation
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What determines the choice of
analytical focus and methods?
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the nature of impacts (direct and indirect)
the channel through which impacts are transmitted
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Prices
Employment
Access to goods and services
Assets
Transfers and taxes
Institutional rules or Authority
data, resources, client capacity and time available
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Economic
Social
Analytical focus vs type of data
and analysis
Qualitative analysis
Quantitative analysis
Socio-cultural basis of
social exclusion
Access to assets and
services differentiated by
gender or ethnicity
Institutional
economics
Impact of removal of
agricultural subsidies on
production
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Input flows (from projections to
delivery) debt trap
Inputs
on
credit, full cost
deducted from
final payment
Producers
Interface
-Unclear idea
about input needs
- Prices unknown
Gestionnaire
DG Production
CotonChad
International
Bid
International
Market Place
Fixed demand
not accounting
for changing
needs
Interface
Transporters
Separate bids
cause untimelyuncoordinated
distribution
Duala
CotonChad
Distributio
n of inputs
&
collection
of cotton
Areas
Ginneries
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PSIA in the PRS-Cycle
Monitoring
Diagnostic
Strategy design
Implementation
of reforms
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