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The Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies / CDDRL Stanford University Frank E. and Arthur W. Payne Distinguished Lecture Series 2008 “Economic Growth, Poverty, Populism, and Democracy” “Can The Poor Afford Democracy? : A Presidential Perspective.” (Final Lecture) STUDY/BOOK PROJECT Alejandro Toledo Ph.D. President of Peru, 2001-2006 President, Global Center for Development and Democracy (GCDD) Payne Distinguished Visiting Lecturer (CDDRL) Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University Distinguished Fellow, Center for Advanced Studies in the Behavioral Sciences (CASBS), Stanford University Political Democracy Election Day APEC Chile 2004 Elected Presidents With power in their hands. Economic Growth South American Interoceanic Highway Export Agro Industry Faces Of Poverty Early Malnutrition Lack Of Drinkable Water Child Labor Social Unrest: Counterproductive For Growth Authoritarian Populism Poverty and Democracy Democratic Governability Economic Growth Democratic Institutions Poverty and Exclusion Reduction Premises: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. We cannot redistribute poverty: The final objective is not that everyone is equally poor. Economic growth is an indispensable (but insufficient) component for any poverty and exclusion reduction strategy. Economic, social, political and legal stability are indispensable to attract national and foreign capital investment. Within a market economy, there is a need for deliberate social policies and specific projects targeted to the extremely poor. There is a high need for accountability on the part of governments at different levels. Conceptual Framework Conventional Wisdom Economic Growth Poverty & Inequality Reduction Income Levels The conventional wisdom among most development economists and policy makers is that economic growth and increases in income levels are the key, and at times the only crucial, components for any poverty reduction strategy. The literature on this is abundant in Latin America as well as in USA, And Europe. Less examined is the reverse proposition: That high levels of poverty and social exclusion may in fact constitute real impediments to achieve the needed social, economic, political, and legal stability for sustained economic growth and democratic governability in the region. This development process perspective recognizes the existence of “vicious circles” in which low economic growth accentuates poverty and high poverty, in turn, results in a low economic growth and fragile governability. This study/book seeks to examine the ways and means to convert this “vicious circle” into “virtuous circle” in which poverty, exclusion/inequality reduction, and sustained economic growth could support each other and strengthen democracy, thus preventing the surge of irresponsible populism and destabilizing forces which undermine sustainable development. Other Manifestations of Poverty • Unemployment • Infant Mortality • Malnutrition • Lack of access to quality health and education • Vulnerability to economic crisis • Ethnic social exclusion Indigenous People: New Challenges for the 21st Century Democracies 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Increase in access to quality health and education Assure effective social inclusion (particularly the indigenous population) Indigenous people of Latin America emerge with old inequalities diverse realities and new obligations for 21st century democracies. Regions impatient with the democracy High inequalities Lack of availability of jobs, Rural, urban contrasts. Inclusion with mutual respect for cultural diversities. From the Analysis and the Lectures To the Actions Social Agenda for Democracy in Lat. America Social Indicators [Demographics] 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 … 2026 Total Population By Gender Population By Age & Gender Population By Urban & Rural Areas By Gender Childbirth Survival Rate Global Rate Of Fecundity Gross Birthrate Gross Mortality Rate Sources: World Bank, UN, IDB, Academic Institutions 2027 2028 Social Indicators [Education] 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 … 2026 Literacy Rate Age 15+ By Gender School Registration Rate By Gender Average Student/Teach er Ratio Public Expenditure In Education % Of Students Starting 1st Grade & Finishing 5th School Assistance In Urban Areas Per Capita Per Income Sources: World Bank, UN, IDB, Academic Institutions 2027 2028 Social Indicators [Health] 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 … Mortality Rate Children Under 5 (UNICEF) Child Mortality Rate Maternal Mortality Rate Underweight Rates Children Under 5 By Gender % Children Measles Vaccination (UNICEFOMS) Childbirths Employing Specialized Sanitary Personnel HIV Prevalence For Mothers Age 15-24 Contraceptive Use By Married Women 15-49 Malaria Mortality Rate Tuberculosis Mortality Rate Inhabitants Per Doctor Hospital Beds Per Inhabitants Sources: World Bank, UN, IDB, Academic Institutions 2026 2027 2028 Social Indicators [Housing] 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 … Occupied Housing According To Type Of Possession By Urban & Rural Areas Homes With Basic Services By Urban & Rural Areas Population With Sustainable Access To Drinking Water Resources By Urban & Rural Areas Population With Access To Proper Drainage Service By Urban Rural Areas Sources: World Bank, UN, IDB, Academic Institutions 2026 2027 2028 Social Indicators [Employment] 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 … Rate Of Urban Unemployment (CEPAL) Rate Of Youth Unemployment Economically Active Population (EAP) By Gender (CELADE-ILO) EAP Growth Rate By Economic Activity Sectors By Gender Sources: World Bank, UN, IDB, Academic Institutions 2026 2027 2028 Social Indicators [Salaries] 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Real Average Salaries Wage-Earners Salaries As GDP Real Minimum Wage Monthly Nominal Minimum Wage In National Currency To Current Prices Sources: World Bank, UN, IDB, Academic Institutions … 2026 2027 2028 Social Indicators [Poverty/Income Distribution] 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 … Poverty & Indigency Coefficient Gap (CEPAL) Coefficient Of Poverty Gap (WB) Income Distribution By Quintiles By Geographic Area (CEPAL) Population In Poverty & Ingency Conditions By Geographic Area Population Living Under 1 Dollar and Under 2 Dollars Per Day (WB) GINI Concentration Rate (CEPAL) % Of Population Below Minimum Nutrition (FAO) Daily Kilocalorie Consumption By Person Sources: World Bank, UN, IDB, Academic Institutions 2026 2027 2028 Social Indicators [Economy] 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 … 2026 2027 2028 2026 2027 2028 GDP Per Inhabitant To Market Constant Prices Of Market, Annual Variation Rates CPI-Consumer Price Index Social Public Expenditure Per Inhabitant Social Public Expenditure As % Total Public Expenditure Social Indicators [Technology] 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 … Internet Users Personal Computers In Use Sources: World Bank, UN, IDB, Academic Institutions Social Indicators [Health/Nutrition/Population] 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 … Population Growth Rate GNI Per Capita Adult Literacy Life Expectancy At Birth Child Mortality Rate Fertility Rate Adult HIV Prevlaence Sources: World Bank, UN, IDB, Academic Institutions 2026 2027 2028