Transcript Cochise College Center for Economic Research

COCHISE COLLEGE
CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH
Economic Outlook
Benson 2011
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
II
I
2004
III
IV
II
I
2005
III
IV
II
I
2006
III
IV
II
I
2007
III
IV
II
I
2008
III
IV
II
I
2009
III
IV
II
I
2010
III
IV
I
2011
INFLATION (CPI)
Compared to same month previous year
NATIONAL OUTLOOK
Inflation/high oil will weigh on consumer
confidence and slow growth
Excess reserves present inflation risk
Replacement purchases will help growth
GDP BY STATE
THE LOCAL ECONOMY
Cochise County & Benson
POPULATION
Census 2010
Census 2000
Growth
6,392,017
5,130,632
24.6%
131,346
117,755
11.5%
Benson
5,105
4,711
8.4%
Bisbee
5,575
6,090
(-8.5%)
Douglas
17,378
14,312
21.4%
1,853
1,751
5.8%
Sierra Vista
43,888
37,775
16.2%
Tombstone
1,380
1,504
(-8.2%)
Willcox
3,757
3,733
0.6%
52,410
47,879
9.5%
Arizona
Cochise County
Huachuca City
Unincorporated
COCHISE COUNTY RETAIL SALES GROWTH
Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year
BENSON RETAIL SALES TAX REVENUE
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
Mar
Jan 11
Nov
Sep
Jul
May
Mar
Jan 10
Nov
Sep
Jul
May
Mar
Jan 09
Nov
Sep
Jul
May
Mar
Jan 08
Nov
Sep
Jul
May
Mar
Jan 07
-20%
RETAIL SALES RECENT ACTIVITY
Cochise County
2011: -1.1% *
2010: -4.8%
2009: -4.2%
2008: -6.5%
2007: -1.3%
Benson (Retail Sales
Tax Revenue)
2011: -8.8% *
2010: -0.4%
2009: -4.8%
2008: 0.6%
2007: 38.2%
* Jan-Apr only; comparison to
same period the previous year
RESTAURANT AND BAR SALES GROWTH
Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year
RESTAURANT & BAR SALES RECENT ACTIVITY
Cochise County
2011: 0.8% *
2010: 0.0%
2009: 0.3%
2008: 0.2%
2007: 0.1%
Benson
2011: -10.2% *
2010: -3.7%
2009: 9.1%
2008: -0.6%
2007: -3.1%
* Jan-Apr only; comparison to
same period the previous year
ACCOMMODATION SALES GROWTH
Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year
ACCOMMODATION SALES RECENT ACTIVITY
Cochise County
2011: -12.6% *
2010: 8.3%
2009: -9.0%
2008: 1.0%
2007: 19.7%
Benson
2011:
2010:
2009:
2008:
2007:
* Jan-Apr only; comparison to
same period the previous year
2.0% *
1.0%
-5.5%
-7.5%
17.6%
SALES OUTLOOK
General upward trend in countywide retail
sales/trending toward positive growth
City-wide retail sales down largely due to lost
market share/Walmart
Slight upward trend in countywide restaurant and
bar sales; city sales trending downward
Downward trend in county accommodation sales;
upward trend at city level
EMPLOYMENT
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
* Jan-May only; U.S. and AZ seasonally adjusted,
Cochise County and Benson unadjusted
COCHISE COUNTY NONFARM JOB GROWTH
Compared to same month previous year
COCHISE COUNTY
JOB GAINS/LOSSES BY INDUSTRY
12 months ended May 2011
* Includes mining
COCHISE COUNTY
JOB GROWTH RATE BY INDUSTRY
12 months ended May 2011
* Includes mining
EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK
Local unemployment still on the rise
Job losses have moderated, but
continue
Some industries seeing growth
Much uncertainty remains
HOUSING AND
REAL ESTATE
NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION
Single Family Residential Building Permits
MLS HOME SALES
MEDIAN HOME PRICE
$210,000
$192,569
$184,000 $182,500
$190,000
$173,900
$173,172
$170,000
$150,000
$195,000
$160,000
$139,900
$145,000
$155,000
$145,000
$128,950
$130,000
$125,000
$110,000
$90,000
$137,500
$100,000
$80,250
$70,000
2004
2005
2006
Benson
2007
2008
2009
2010
Cochise County
*Jan-Mar only
2011*
OUTLOOK
New residential construction recovery stalled
at county level
Foreclosures moderating after considerable
worsening last year
Existing home sales on the rise from
foreclosures/lower prices
CONCLUSION
Recovery moving along slowly
Employment showing improvement
Gas prices have caused some slowing, pose
threat
Inflation threat remains
Foreclosures helping existing home sales
volume (but not price), hurting new
construction