Transcript No Slide Title

Presentation of the ASEAN
Economic intelligence report
--Southeast Asia area
Priscilla Haifeng Wu
Hao Wang
Outline
1. Introduction
- Environment
- Political
- Economic
2. Trade & Service
3. FDI
4. Issues
5.Prosperous
BRUNEI DARUSSALAM
Background Information :
Capital
:
Bandar Seri Begawan
Land area
:
5,765 sq.km
Population :
342,000 (2000)
Language
:
Malay
Religion
:
Moslem
Government Type
:
Constitutional Monarchy
Member of :
ASEAN, APEC, APT, APDC, Commonwealth, ESCAP, GP 77, GATT/WTO,
ICAO, IMO, IMF, WMO, UNDP, WHO, WIPO, WTO-GBT, ASEM, EALAF
Currency
:
B$ (Bruneian Dollar).
GDP
:
B$ 8.0 (2000) at current market prices
Major Industries
:
Oil and gas, textiles, food and beverages, building materials
Major Exports
:
Oil and gas, ready-made garments
Major Imports
food chemicals
:
Transport equipment and machinery, manufactured goods,
CAMBODIA
Background Information :
Capital
:
Phnom Penh
Land area
:
181,035 sq.km
Population
:
11.0 million (1999)
Language
:
Khmer
Religion
:
Buddhism
Government Type
:
Constitutional Monarchy
Member of
:
ASEAN, CTBTO, ESCAP, FAO, IAEA, IBRD, ICAO, IDA, IFC, IFAD, ILO, IMF, IMO, ITU, LDC,
UNO, UNCTAD, UNESCO, UPO, UNIDO, WIPO, WHO
Currency
:
Riel
GDP
:
Riel 12,406.5 (2000) at current market prices
Major Industries
:
Textiles and Garments, Beverages, Food Processing, Wood Processing
Major Exports :
Garments, Textile Product Sawn, Wood Furniture and Rubber
Major Imports :
Transport equipment and machinery, manufactured goods, food chemicals
INDONESIA
Background Information :
Capital
:
Jakarta.
Land area
:
1,919,317 sq.km.
Population
:
212 million (2000).
Language
:
Bahasa Indonesia
Religion
:
Moslem, Christian, Catholic, Buddhism, Hinduism
Government Type
:
Member of
:
APEC, ASEM, EALAF
ASEAN, UN, IMF, ESCAP, FAO, ILO, UNESCO, IBRD, IFC, MIGA, IDB, IDA, ADB, WTO,
Currency
:
Rupiah
GDP
:
Rp. 1,332.2 billion (2000) at current market prices
Major Industries
:
telecommunication, transportation
Republic
Pulp and paper, cement, basic metals and fertilizer, power generation,
Major Exports :
Textile, electronic goods, footwear, oil & gas, plywood, sawn timber
Major Imports :
vehicles
Chemical and pharmaceutical, fertilizer, cotton yarns, textile fabric, machines, motor
LAO PDR
Background Information :
Capital
:
Vientiane
Land area
:
236,800 sq.km
Population
:
5.3 million (1999)
Language
:
Lao
Religion
:
Buddhism
Government Type
:
People's Democratic Republic
Member of
:
ASEAN, ADB, ESCAP, FAO, IBRD, WHO, IDA, WIPO, IFC, ILO, IMF, UN, NCTAD, UNESCO,
UNIDO, UNICEF, WHO, EALAF
Currency
:
Kip
GDP
:
Kip 13,482 billion (2000) at current market prices
Major Industries
:
Garment industry, wood-based and processing industries, electricity
Major Exports :
Coffee, electricity, clothing, wood and forest product and Gypsum
Major Imports :
Industrial machinery, chemicals, iron, electrical machinery and parts, steel, oil, construction
material and consumption goods
MYANMAR
Background Information :
Capital
:
Yangon
Land area
:
676,575 sq.km
Population
:
49.0 million (2000)
Language
:
Myanmar
Religion
:
Buddhism, Christians, Moslem
Government Type
:
State Peace Development Council
Member of
:
UNIDO, UNICEF, EALAF
ASEAN, ADB, ESCAP, ACU, FAO, IBRD, IDA, IFC, ILO, IMF, ITU, WTO, UNESCO,
Currency
:
Myanmar Kyat
GDP
:
K 2,408.4 billion (2000) at current market prices
Major Industries
:
Agro-based industries, textiles industries, steel mills
Major Exports :
Rice, teak, beans & pulses, rubber, coffee, minerals, gems marine products
Major Imports :
Power tillers, hand tractor, fertilizer, diesel oil, cement, dumper, loader and spare
parts, water pumps, hydraulic excavator
PHILIPPINES
Background Information :
Capital
:
Manila
Land area
:
300,000 sq.km
Population
:
78.4 million (2000)
Language
:
Filipino, English, Spanish
Religion
:
Buddhism, Christians, Moslem
Government Type
:
Democracy
Member of
:
ASEAN, ADB, APEC, ASEM, FAO, IBRD, IDA, IMF, IFAD, IFC, ILO, UN, UNESCO, UNICEF, UNIDO,
WHO, WTO, WCO, WIPO, EALAF
Currency
:
Peso
GDP
:
Php 3,322.6 billion (2000) at current market prices
Major Industries
:
Food, petroleum and coal refining, chemical, electronics and electrical machinery
Major Exports :
Electronics, garments, machinery and transport equipment, mineral and mineral products,
coconut product, sugar, bananas, pineapple, mangoes
Major Imports :
Materials for the manufacture of electronics/electrical equipment
SINGAPORE
Background Information :
Capital
:
Singapore
Land area
:
647.8 sq.km
Population
:
4.0 million (2000)
Language
:
English, Malay, Mandarin, Tamil
Religion
:
Buddhism, Christians, Moslem
Government Type
:
Parliamentary Democracy
Member of
:
ASEAN, ADB, APEC, ARF, COMMONWEALTH, FAO, IAEA, IBRD, IDA, IFC, IMF,
IFAD, IMO, ILO, ITU, UNIDO, UPO, WHO, ASEM, EALAF
Currency
:
Singapore Dollar (S$)
GDP
:
S$ 159.0 billion (2000) at current market prices
Major Industries
trading
:
Electronics, chemicals, banking and finance, real estate, tourism,
Major Exports :
Petroleum products, industrial machines, radio & television receivers & parts,
electronic component & parts, clothing, beverages & tobacco
Major Imports :
component and parts
Crude petroleum, iron & steel, industrial machines, electric generators, electronic
Environment In Economy and Politic
• GDP of Southeast Asia keeps continue growth after financial
crisis
• Renewed investment in export-oriented industries has led to a
recovery in private capital formation. Lower interest rates, lower
the public and company’s debt
• In terms of domestic demand, consumption growth is also
likely to remain weaker in 2001 than in 2000.
• Export growth (in US dollar terms) is likely to slow
considerably in 2001; be accompanied by faster import growth
(relative to exports) and a further narrowing of the current
account surplus in the subregion in 2001.
TRADE
Most of the Southeast Asian region is now a free trade area.
Accounting for over 96 percent of all ASEAN trade.
Table 4
Number of Tariff Lines with tariff of 0-5% of the Six Original Signatories
Country
Number of tariff Lines in 2001
IL
Percentage
0-5%
>5%
Other
Total
0-5%
>5%
Other
Total
Brunei
Darussalam
6,107
157
12
6,276
97.3
2.50
0.2
100.00
Indonesia
6,483
709
-
7,192
90.1
9.9
-
100.00
Malaysia
9,198
841
-
10,039
91.6
8.4
-
100.00
Philippines
5,016
551
-
5,567
90.1
9.9
-
100.00
Singapore
5,859
0
-
5,859
100.00
0
-
100.00
Thailand
8,193
911
-
9,104
90.0
10.0
-
100.00
TOTAL
40,856
3,169
12
44,037
92.8
7.2
0.2
100.00
Source: ASEAN Secretariat
Continue
TRADE
· The first six signatories of the Common Effective Preferential
Tariff scheme for the ASEAN Free Trade Area have reduced their
tariffs on intra-regional trade less than 5%.
· In contrast with the export growth of 7.7 percent in 1999 and 19.8
percent in 2000, ASEAN exports declined in 2001 (Table 3).
· Intra-ASEAN exports grew by 26.3 percent and intra-ASEAN
imports by 27 percent in year 2000. Year-on-year, intra-ASEAN
exports contracted by 2.7 percent for the first half of 2001 (Table 4)
· The three major destinations for ASEAN exports were the United
States, European Union, and Japan (see Table 5). In the first half of
2001, with the exception
st
st
Table 3. Total ASEAN Trade (1 Half of 2000 – 1 Half of 2001)
(US$ Million)
Exports
Country
Imports
1st half
1st half
Change
1st half
1st half
Change
2000
2001
Value
2000
2001
Value
Brunei D.
1.522,2
1.540,0
17,8
1,2
524,4
702,2
177,8
33,9
Indonesia
29.355,4
29.346,6
-8,8
0,0
13.751,0
17.744,9
3.993,9
29,0
Malaysia
46.177,0
44.491,9
-1.685,1
-3,6
38.325,0
37.302,7
-1.022,3
-2,7
Myamnar
484,7
1.116,1
631,4
130,3
1.250,8
1.532,4
281,6
22,5
Philippines
17.616,2
15.987,9
-1.628,3
-9,2
15.336,3
15.254,9
-81,4
-0,5
Singapore
62.839,2
63.128,5
289,3
0,5
61.836,0
59.992,9
-1.843,1
-3,0
Thailand
32.851,5
32.420,7
-430,8
-1,3
28.837,6
31.516,1
2.678,5
9,3
Viet Nam
6.440,0
7.601,0
1.161,0
18,0
7.146,0
7.830,0
684,0
9,6
Total
197.286,2
195.632,7
-1.653,5
-0,8
167.007,1
171.876,1
4.869,0
2,9
As of December 13, 2001
%
%
st
st
Table 4. Intra-ASEAN Trade (1 Half of 2000 – 1 Half of 2001)
(US$ Million)
Exports
Country
Imports
1st half
1st half
Change
1st half
1st half
Change
2000
2001
Value
2000
2001
Value
Brunei D.
478,1
298,7
-179,4
-37,5
264,1
259,8
-4,3
-1,6
Indonesia
5.192,4
4.818,9
-373,5
-7,2
3.086,7
2.897,9
-188,8
-6,1
Malaysia
12.461,6
11.177,7
-1.283,9
-10,3
7.485,7
6.909,4
-576,3
-7,7
Myamnar
131,2
482,1
350,9
267,5
669,7
734,4
64,7
9,7
Philippines
2.628,6
2.590,5
-38,1
-1,4
2.414,5
2.349,3
-65,2
-2,7
Singapore
17.198,6
16.794,1
-404,5
-2,4
15.028,5
14.421,9
-606,6
-4,0
Thailand
6.697,4
7.366,6
669,2
10,0
4.747,6
5.078,1
330,5
7,0
Viet Nam
1.272,0
1.281,0
9,0
0,7
2.016,0
2.153,0
137,0
6,8
Total
46.059,9
44.809,6
-1.250,3
-2,7
35.712,8
34.803,8
-909,0
-2,5
As of December 13, 2001
%
%
Table 5: ASEAN Trade with Major Trading Partners
EXPORTS
IMPORTS
TRADE
BALANCE
COUNTRIES
1st
Half
2000
1st
Half
2001
%
Chang
e
1st
Half
2000
1 Half
2001
%
Chang
e
1st Half
2000
1st
Half
2001
%
Chang
e
1st
Half
2000
1st Half
2001
Australia
3,649.1
3,530.1
(3.3)
3,886.8
4,809.7
23.7
7,535.9
8,339.8
10.7
(237.6)
(1,279.7)
Canada
813.0
783.2
(3.7)
806.6
708.0
(12.2)
1,619.6
1,491.2
(7.9)
6.4
75.3
China
(Including
Hong Kong)*
8,784.3
8,787.1
0.0
7,490.4
8,418.8
12.4
16,274.7
17,205.
9
5.7
1,293.9
368.2
EU
25,524.
4
24,640.
1
(3.5)
15,364.
0
16,433.
5
7.0
40,888.4
41,073.
6
0.5
10,160.
4
8,206.6
India
2,907.3
2,881.1
(0.9)
1,160.4
1,719.1
48.1
4,067.7
4,600.2
13.1
1,746.9
1,162.0
Japan
18,725.
9
21,202.
3
13.2
23,590.
0
21,768.
9
(7.7)
42,316.0
42,971.
2
1.5
(4,864.1
(566.6)
)
6,533.3
6,560.1
0.4
6,041.9
5,832.9
(3.5)
12,575.1
12,393.
1
(1.4)
491.4
727.2
New Zealand
493.7
421.6
(14.6)
399.2
553.9
38.8
892.8
975.5
9.3
94.5
(132.3)
Pakistan
194.3
229.3
18.0
196.3
203.7
3.8
390.6
432.9
10.8
(2.0)
25.6
Russia
595.5
345.1
(42.0)
184.7
316.8
71.6
780.1
662.0
(15.1)
410.8
28.3
US
26,282.
3
25,049.
6
(4.7)
19,578.
1
20,669.
4
5.6
45,860.4
45,719.
0
(0.3)
6,704.2
4,380.2
25,401.
1
25,019.
4
(1.5)
23,375.
9
23,522.
6
0.6
48,777.1
48,542.
0
(0.5)
2,025.2
1,496.8
Korea
Rest of
World
the
st
Note: Data only from Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines and Singapore Submissions.
* Excluding Trade with Hong Kong in Singapore Data.
SERVICE
ASEAN has concluded its negotiations on the third package
of commitments for the liberalization of services. The package
includes commitments in air transport, business services,
construction,
financial
services,
maritime
transport,
telecommunications, and tourism. Under business services, several
commitments have been made on ICT-related services with the view
to facilitating the realization of the e-ASEAN initiative.
Member Countries might adopt the like-minded countries
approach where agreements could be concluded by those countries
that were ready while others could accede at a later time.
FDI entry into ASEAN (1996-2001)
($ B)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1
2
1996 1997 1998
3
1999
4
2000 2001 (Year)
5
6
ISSUES
1. Threaten from China
ASEAN's accumulated net FDI totaled only
US$173 billion for 1980-2000 as substantial crowding
out by China in 1993-2000 took its toll on the aggregate.
Continue
ISSUES
2. ASEAN Broadens Liberalization of Investment Rules
Any ASEAN investor can now invest in any ASEAN country
and enjoy national investor treatment in the manufacturing areas that
had been excluded previously. The decision has stepped up the
timetable for investment liberalization, which had been set four years
ago. Since the launch of ASEAN Investment Area in 1998, Southeast
Asian states had started opening up all industries for investment and
grant national treatment to ASEAN investors, with some exception as
specified in the Temporary Exclusion List.
continue
ISSUES
3. The Culture and Information – the establishment of
bridge of understanding
It aims to improve investor confidence, provide focus on
regional economic integration, and other live issues, such as the
possibility of the recurrence of the haze and regional cooperation
against terrorism.
Continue
ISSUES
4. Democratic Expansion and Democratic Deepening
in Southeast Asia: The Fateful Connection
The movement for democracy in Southeast Asia is in very bad
shape.
The crisis is rooted in a number of problems, the principal one
being a lack of consciousness of the intrinsic relationship
between the mission of democratic expansion in the region
and the deepening of democratic practice in the countries
where it now has a foothold.
Continue
ISSUES
5. Lessons learned from the Asia Finance Crisis
what is needed are reforms that embrace a number of
elements that are vital for economic growth and financial stability?
 greater transparency and accountability in government and corporate
affairs;
 stronger banking systems that protect the savings of small depositors;
 the liberalization of capital flows in a prudent and properly sequenced
way;
 a more level playing field for the private sector—by dismantling
monopolies and setting up simpler, more transparent regulatory systems;
 reductions in unproductive government spending,
 higher and more cost-effective spending on primary health care and
education; adequate social protection of the poor, the unemployed etc.
 a more effective dialogue with labor and the rest of civil society—to
increase political support for adjustment and reform and to ensure that all
segments of society benefit.
6. Human rights in ASEAN
The southeast Asia region is generally poor.
Governments range from brutal dictatorships to weak
democracies. Ethnic conflicts and discrimination
against minorities are problems in most countries.
Internal wars rage in several parts of the region. Child
prostitution and child labor are relatively common,
and children and adults in some countries risk having
their limbs blown off by land mines. Prison conditions
are generally bad, police abuses are common and
torture is practiced in some of these countries.
Freedom of expression varies from country to country,
but it's generally restricted.
PROSPEROUS
Will Everything go
well in ASEAN ?!
Time, Hope,
Opportunity, and
hard-work.