Transcript THE LANDSAPE OF GLOBAL INDUSTRIES IN EVOLVING

Shaping the Future
In a Global Web of Knowledge
2011 EAM – Conference
Bengaluru, 27 June, 2011
Arun Maira
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Shaping the Future
In a Global Web of Knowledge
Forces of Change : Information; Ideas
Tools for Progress : Institutions, Innovation
Agency for Change : Leadership
Challenges: Inclusive; Sustainable
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RISING DEMAND FOR BASIC RIGHTS
DEMOCRAC
Y
HUMAN
RIGHTS
THE WORLD
IN
2035 ?
Autocracies
1977:89;
2009:23
Concept of “MDG”
(2000)
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PEOPLE ARE NOT IN THE DARK
Cellphones : Elite to Masses
India :
2000 < 5m
2010 > 750 m
ACCESS TO
INFORMATION
Google – daily hits
1997 – Zero
2009 > 700m
DEMOCRAC
Y
HUMAN
RIGHTS
THE WORLD
IN
2035 ?
Autocracies
1977:89;
2009:23
Concept of “MDG”
(2000)
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EXCEEDING THE CAPACITY OF THE EARTH
Cellphones : Elite to Masses
India :
2000 < 5m
2010 > 750 m
ACCESS TO
INFORMATIO
N
Google – daily hits
1997 – Zero
2009 > 700m
DEMOCRACY
HUMAN
RIGHTS
THE WORLD
IN
2035 ?
Mankind's global
footprint
Autocracies
1977:89;
2009:23
Concept of “MDG”
(2000)
CLIMAT
E
CHANGE
1960 : 60% of global biocapacity
2007 : 130%
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GROWTH IS NOT INCLUSIVE
Cellphones : Elite to Masses
India :
2000 < 5m
2010 > 750 m
Google – daily hits
ACCESS TO
INFORMATIO
N
1997 – Zero
2009 > 700m
DEMOCRAC
Y
HUMAN
RIGHTS
THE WORLD
IN
2035 ?
Concept of “MDG”
2000)
CAPITALISM
FREE
MARKETS
Mankind's global
footprint
Autocracies
1977:89;
2009:23
"Wealth of Bill Gates
and Warren Buffet
equals the wealth of
the 100 million
poorest Americans"
CLIMATE
CHANGE
1960 : 60% of global biocapacity
2007 : 130%
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INNOVATION
GROWTH IS NOT INCLUSIVE
UPRISING
FOR BASIC
RIGHTS
REINVENTING
THE WHEEL
OF PROGRESS
PEOPLE
ARE
NOT IN
THE DARK
EXCEEDING THE CAPACITY OF
THE EARTH
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CONFLICTING INSTITUTIONS
MARKETS/CAPITALISM
BUSINESS
INSTITUTIONS
MULTI-NATIONAL CORPORATIONS
INFORMATION
FLOWS
CONNECTIVITY
SOCIOPOLITICAL
INSTITUTIONS
COUNTRIES
CONSTITUTIONS
LEGAL
CONTRACTS
TRUST
RESPECT
COMMUNITIES
'TRIBES'/HUMAN BEINGS
HUMAN RIGHTS/DEMOCRACY
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NEW SKILLS FOR LEADERS
Increasing
unpredictability due
to global complexity
Diversity of interests and
capabilities of
multiple stakeholders
WHAT MAY HAPPEN?
WHO IS THE BOSS?
Challenge in
Challenge in
setting direction
coordination
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INDIA RISING
A Large Economy of Poor People
GDP vs GDP per capita in 2002
GDP (US$ Bn)
14000
GDP vs GDP per capita in 2050
GDP (US$ Bn)
60000
China
12000
50000
US
10000
US
40000
India
8000
30000
6000
Japan
4000
2000
China
India
Brazil Italy
Russia
0
0
20000
Italy
Germany
France
Germany
Russia
10000
UK
Japan
Brazil
France
UK
0
10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
GDP per capita
(US$)
Source: Goldman Sachs Economic Paper # 99, BCG Analysis
0
20000
40000
60000
80000 100000
GDP per capita
(US$)
Bubble size corresponds to GDP size
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THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND
~ 480 Million
people are under
the age of 18
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THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND
45% of Indian children
malnourished
(almost half of the world’s
malnourished children)
~ 480 Million
people are under
the age of 18
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THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND
45% of Indian children
malnourished
(almost half of the world’s
malnourished children)
Less than 40% of Indian
children
complete school (Std X)
- Only 75% to Class V
~ 480 Million
people are under
the age of 18
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THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND
45% of Indian children
malnourished
(almost half of the world’s
malnourished children)
Less than 40% of Indian
children
complete school (Std X)
- Only 75% to Class V
Only 31% of Indians
have adequate
sanitation facilities
~ 480 Million
people are under
the age of 18
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THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND
45% of Indian children
malnourished
(almost half of the world’s
malnourished children)
Less than 40% of Indian
children
complete school (Std X)
- Only 75% to Class V
Only 31% of Indians
have adequate
sanitation facilities
~ 480 Million
people are under
the age of 18
139m Indians do
not have
“access” to safe
drinking water
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WHICH WAY INDIA ?
Engaging a diverse nation
democratically in the quest for
inclusive, sustainable growth
Models of Change and Leadership
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“ATAKTA BHARAT” : INDIA GETTING STUCK
Integration with the world
Exclusive
growth and
development
BUFFALOES WALLOWING
Inclusive
growth and
development
Isolation from
the world
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BOLLY WORLD
Integration with the world
BIRDS SCRAMBLING
WOLVES PROWLING
Exclusive
growth and
development
Inclusive
growth and
development
Isolation from
the world
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“PAHALE INDIA” : INDIA FIRST
Integration
with the world
Exclusive
growth and
development
FIREFLIES ARISING
Inclusive
growth and
development
Isolation for
the world
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APPROACH PROPOSED
(IN 2000)
Fireflies Arising
STRATEGIES
- Enable children and women
to access relevant
knowledge through new
technology
- Facilitate local initiatives
Peacocks Strutting
- Strengthen infrastructure
Wolves Prowling
- Develop new models and
skills of leadership
- Propagate successful stories
and build confidence
SOUND MACRO-ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK
Buffaloes Wallowing
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FIREFLIES ARISING
MOBILE PHONE SUBSCRIBERS
2010 : 752 m
2008 : 275 m
2004 : 34 m
2000 : 2 m
(Source : Telephone Regulatory
Authority of India)
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FIREFLIES ARISING
MOBILE PHONE SUBSCRIBERS
MICRO FINANCE CLIENTS
2010 : 752 m
2008 : 275 m
2004 : 34 m
2000 : 2 m
2012 : 60 million (Est)
2009 : 23 million
2007 : 10 million
(Source : Telephone Regulatory
Authority of India)
(Source : Lok Capital)
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FIREFLIES ARISING
MOBILE PHONE SUBSCRIBERS
MICRO FINANCE CLIENTS
2010 : 752 m
2008 : 275 m
2004 : 34 m
2000 : 2 m
2012 : 60 million (Est)
2009 : 23 million
2007 : 10 million
(Source : Telephone Regulatory
Authority of India)
(Source : Lok Capital)
Enrolments in
Emerging India
Awards for SMEs *
2010 : 300,000
2005 : 5,000
Credit to SMEs
increased five fold in last 5 years
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FIREFLIES ARISING
MOBILE PHONE SUBSCRIBERS
MICRO FINANCE CLIENTS
2010 : 752 m
2008 : 275 m
2004 : 34 m
2000 : 2 m
2012 : 60 million (Est)
2009 : 23 million
2007 : 10 million
(Source : Telephone Regulatory
Authority of India)
Enrolments in
Emerging India
Awards for SMEs *
2010 : 300,000
2005 : 5,000
Credit to SMEs
increased five fold in last 5 years
(Source : Lok Capital)
BANK LINKED
SELF- HELP
GROUPS
(March’ 10)
6.9 million, of which
5.3 million women
groups
(Source : NABARD)
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LEADER : HE (OR SHE) WHO TAKES THE FIRST STEPS
TOWARDS A GOAL HE DEEPLY CARES ABOUT,
AND IN WAYS THAT OTHERS WISH TO FOLLOW
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