Transcript DISCOVER Anchorage, Alaska

2004 Anchorage
Economic Forecast
January 21, 2004
Anchorage, Alaska
Scott Goldsmith
Institute of Social and Economic Research
University of Alaska Anchorage
ISER
anchorage • crossroads to the world
Annual Rate of Job Growth
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
2
20
03
20
04
1
0
99
98
97
96
95
94
93
92
91
0.0%
anchorage • crossroads to the world
2003: How We Did
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Jobs
Population
Unemployment
Personal Income
Average Wage
Inflation
anchorage • crossroads to the world
2004: The Year Ahead
Positives
Negatives
 National Economy --
 Federal Spending--strong
 Confidence Quotient -cautiously upbeat
 Oil Price--high
 Mining -- lots of action
 National Economy -picking up
 Stock Market--up
uncertain recovery
 War on Terrorism-uncertain
 Fiscal Gap--unresolved
 Seafood/Timber-struggling
 PFD -- down
 Interest Rates -edging up
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Where are the Jobs?
anchorage • crossroads to the world
Private Service Economy
Information
5%
Other Services
6%
Trade
22%
Finance
8%
Transport
10%
Professional
17%
Leisure
15%
Health
17%
anchorage • crossroads to the world
1500
1000
500
0
17,200
Total Health Jobs
2002
2003
2004
Recent Job Growth
Health
Health care will again lead all industries in adding
new jobs to the economy.
+1,000 Jobs
Examples:
Providence Hospital
Southcentral Foundation
anchorage • crossroads to the world
1500
1000
500
0
2002
15,000
Total Leisure and Hospitality Jobs
2003
2004
Recent Job Growth
Leisure & Hospitality
Several factors will combine to insure a
strong year for tourism, so the leisure and hospitality
sector will record another year
of strong growth.
+400 Jobs
Examples:
Westmark Hotels
McDonalds Restaurants
The Alaska Club
anchorage • crossroads to the world
1500
1000
500
0
2002
22,000
Total Trade Jobs
2003
2004
Recent Job Growth
Trade
Increasing consumer income in Anchorage
and throughout the state will provide
the driving force for another year
of growth in the trade sector.
+250 jobs
Examples:
Wal-Mart
Safeway
anchorage • crossroads to the world
1500
1000
500
0
17,200
Total Professional and Business Services Jobs
2002
2003
2004
Recent Job Growth
Professional &
Business Services
Expanding business opportunities will drive
job growth in this sector, although a peaking
construction boom will slow the increase
from prior years.
+200 Jobs
Examples:
Alaska Executive Search
Lounsbury and Associates Inc.
anchorage • crossroads to the world
1500
1000
500
0
2002
6,100
Total Other Services Jobs
2003
2004
Recent Job Growth
Other Services
Growing consumer income drives growth in services
to households.
+150 Jobs
Examples:
Alaska Cleaners
Salvation Army
anchorage • crossroads to the world
1500
1000
500
0
-500
2002
10,600
Total Transportation and Utilities Jobs
2003
2004
Recent Job Growth
Transportation
& Utilities
After a loss of jobs last year, we project
no change for this sector.
No Change
Examples:
Chugach Electric Association
Federal Express
anchorage • crossroads to the world
1500
1000
500
0
-500
2002
8,400
Total Finance Jobs
2003
2004
Recent Job Growth
Finance
Higher interest rates will hold employment
in the finance sector to the same level as last year.
No Change
Examples:
Alaska USA Federal Credit Union
Ribelen Lowell and Company
anchorage • crossroads to the world
1500
1000
500
0
-500
2002
4,600
Total Information Jobs
2003
2004
Recent Job Growth
Information
No change is expected in jobs
in this part of the economy.
No Change
Examples:
GCI Communications
Anchorage Daily News
anchorage • crossroads to the world
1500
1000
500
0
-500
2002
2,500
Total Natural Resources Jobs
2003
2004
Recent Job Growth
Natural Resources
After two years of falling employment,
jobs in petroleum and mining will stabilize
and we expect no change.
No Change
Examples:
British Petroleum
Conoco Phillips
anchorage • crossroads to the world
1500
1000
500
0
8,300
Total Construction Jobs
2002
2003
2004
Recent Job Growth
Construction
Growing construction spending has been one
of the big drivers of the economy for several years,
but its impact is moderating.
Activity will remain high, but we expect
no change in the level of employment.
No Change
Examples:
Neeser Construction Inc.
Spinell Homes Inc
anchorage • crossroads to the world
1500
1000
500
0
2002
1,900
Total Manufacturing Jobs
2003
2004
Recent Job Growth
Manufacturing
Manufacturing makes a small contribution
to the economy. We expect no change
in jobs this year.
No Change
Examples:
Europa Bakery
Anchorage Tank and Welding Inc.
anchorage • crossroads to the world
1500
1000
500
0
-500
2002
30,500
Total Government Jobs
2003
2004
Recent Job Growth
Government
Federal, state, and local government spending will
be tight again this year. Budget cuts will lead to state
and local job losses of 100 compared to last year.
-100 Jobs
Examples:
Anchorage School District
US Fish and Wildlife Service
anchorage • crossroads to the world
Job Growth Summary
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
-200
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Pr Oth
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Concluding Caveat
Federal Spending Bubble
State Government Living
Beyond Its Means
Other Economic Drivers
anchorage • crossroads to the world