Transcript Slide 1

Barbara Pocock,
Centre for Work + Life,
University of South Australia
‘No Frills’: 18th National Vocational Education and Training Research
Conference, University of Ballarat, Mt Helen Campus, 8-10th July 2009
What I plan to discuss
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
What kind of recession are we in? What’s different?
The demographic context
Who is a worker now?
How is work different?
What is different about households?
What does all this mean:


For the low paid?
For educators and trainers?
A different context
 Demographics: age composition of the workforce
 Fertility
 Work places and the workforce
 Household structures
 Work intensification and the fall-out of the last two
recessions
 New generations of workers
1. A recession?
 So far technically an economic slowdown
 Starting from a lower official unemployment base
 But a higher rate of under-employment
Sep-2007
Jun-2006
Mar-2005
Dec-2003
Sep-2002
Jun-2001
Mar-2000
Dec-1998
Sep-1997
Jun-1996
Mar-1995
Dec-1993
Sep-1992
Jun-1991
Mar-1990
14000
Dec-1988
Sep-1987
Jun-1986
Mar-1985
Dec-1983
Sep-1982
Jun-1981
Mar-1980
A second post-war boom 19912008
GDP/Capita
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
Sep-2008
Dec-2007
Mar-2007
Jun-2006
Sep-2005
Dec-2004
Mar-2004
Jun-2003
Sep-2002
Dec-2001
Mar-2001
Jun-2000
Sep-1999
Dec-1998
Mar-1998
Jun-1997
Sep-1996
Dec-1995
Mar-1995
Jun-1994
Sep-1993
Dec-1992
Mar-1992
Jun-1991
Sep-1990
Dec-1989
Mar-1989
Jun-1988
Sep-1987
Dec-1986
2.5
Mar-1986
Jun-1985
Sep-1984
Dec-1983
Mar-1983
Jun-1982
Sep-1981
Dec-1980
Mar-1980
Three recessions: GDP 1980-2009
3.0
Five quarters of negative growth
Unemployment hit 10%
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
Sep-2008
Dec-2007
Mar-2007
Jun-2006
Sep-2005
Dec-2004
Mar-2004
Jun-2003
Sep-2002
Dec-2001
Mar-2001
Jun-2000
Sep-1999
Dec-1998
Mar-1998
Jun-1997
Sep-1996
Dec-1995
Mar-1995
Jun-1994
Sep-1993
2.5
Dec-1992
Mar-1992
Jun-1991
Sep-1990
Dec-1989
Mar-1989
Jun-1988
Sep-1987
Dec-1986
Mar-1986
Jun-1985
Sep-1984
Dec-1983
Mar-1983
Jun-1982
Sep-1981
Dec-1980
Mar-1980
GDP 1980-2009
3.0
Four quarters of negative growth
Unemployment hit 11%
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
Sep-2008
Dec-2007
Mar-2007
Jun-2006
Sep-2005
Dec-2004
Mar-2004
Jun-2003
Sep-2002
Dec-2001
Mar-2001
Jun-2000
Sep-1999
2.5
Dec-1998
Mar-1998
Jun-1997
Sep-1996
Dec-1995
Mar-1995
Jun-1994
Sep-1993
Dec-1992
Mar-1992
Jun-1991
Sep-1990
Dec-1989
Mar-1989
Jun-1988
Sep-1987
Dec-1986
Mar-1986
Jun-1985
Sep-1984
Dec-1983
Mar-1983
Jun-1982
Sep-1981
Dec-1980
Mar-1980
GDP 1980-2009
3.0
One quarter of negative growth
Unemployment to hit 8%?
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Sep-2008
Dec-2007
Mar-2007
Jun-2006
Sep-2005
Dec-2004
Mar-2004
Jun-2003
Sep-2002
Dec-2001
Mar-2001
Jun-2000
Sep-1999
Dec-1998
Mar-1998
Jun-1997
Sep-1996
Dec-1995
Mar-1995
Jun-1994
Sep-1993
Dec-1992
Mar-1992
Jun-1991
Sep-1990
Dec-1989
Mar-1989
Jun-1988
Sep-1987
Dec-1986
Mar-1986
Jun-1985
Sep-1984
Dec-1983
Mar-1983
Jun-1982
Sep-1981
Dec-1980
-2.0
Unemployment rate
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Sep-2008
Dec-2007
Mar-2007
Jun-2006
Sep-2005
Dec-2004
Mar-2004
Jun-2003
Sep-2002
Dec-2001
Mar-2001
Jun-2000
Sep-1999
Dec-1998
Mar-1998
Jun-1997
Sep-1996
Dec-1995
Mar-1995
Jun-1994
Sep-1993
Dec-1992
Mar-1992
Jun-1991
Sep-1990
Dec-1989
Mar-1989
Jun-1988
Sep-1987
Dec-1986
Mar-1986
Jun-1985
Sep-1984
Dec-1983
Mar-1983
Jun-1982
Sep-1981
Dec-1980
Mar-1980
-1.0
Mar-1980
Last two recessions had long unemployment tails,
especially 1990s (men on disability payments?)
GDP
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Under-employment
 The labour force underutilisation rate (which includes
the unemployed and the underemployed - those who
would like to work more) is rising
 from 10.1 per cent in May 2008 (12.4 per cent for women)
 to 13.4 per cent in May 2009 for all persons (2.7% higher
for women)
 in late 2008 one in five of Australia's part-time workers
wanted and were available to work more hours (ABS cat
no 6265.0).
May-2009
Jul-2008
Sep-2007
Nov-2006
Jan-2006
Mar-2005
May-2004
Jul-2003
Sep-2002
Nov-2001
Jan-2001
Mar-2000
May-1999
Jul-1998
Sep-1997
Nov-1996
Jan-1996
Mar-1995
May-1994
Jul-1993
Sep-1992
Nov-1991
Jan-1991
Mar-1990
May-1989
Jul-1988
Sep-1987
Nov-1986
Jan-1986
Mar-1985
May-1984
Jul-1983
Sep-1982
Nov-1981
Jan-1981
Mar-1980
Different gender stories?
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
males
6.0
females
persons
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
The GFC
Employment has contracted in 2009 and will remain weak in 2010
According to Treasury budget papers, GDP growth in Australia is predicted to
be around -0.5% in 2009/10 and 2.25% in 2009/10
Unemployment rate might hit 8¼ per cent by the June quarter 2010, peaking
at 8½ per cent in 2010-11.
The participation rate is forecast to decline by 1¼ percentage points from its
recent record high, reaching 64¼ per cent by the June quarter 2011
These forecasts take into account the Australian Government’s $42 billion
Nation Building and Jobs Plan, which is expected to support 90 000 jobs over
the forecast period
GFC – who will get hurt?
 Some industries, regions and individuals will be
disproportionately affected
• Industries most likely to be directly affected: Finance and
Insurance and Property and Business Services industries
• Industries closely linked with the business cycle:
Construction, Manufacturing and Retail Trade
• Regions – some still recovering from 1980s and 1990s
recessions. Disadvantage piled on disadvantage.
• People with the least skills and experience: low paid,
young, low qualifications, immigrants, casuals
2. A demographic freight train
Fertility: the pill
Source: ABS Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101 Cat no 3222.0, 2008
Population profile 2006, 2056
Source: ABS Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101 Cat no 3222.0, 2008
An aging workforce
Source: ABS, Mature Age Workers: Sustaining Our Future Labour Force.
Even the Baby Bonus (or paid parental leave) cannot
derail
 GFC is a 5 year problem
 The demographic, work and household changes are a
much larger 50 year problem
 And we will live this larger problem in the context of a
workforce that is:
 increasingly female
 aging
 already feels overworked
 is pushed for time
 needs different skills


In some cases more
In some cases better deployment of them
3. Who’s a worker now?
May-2009
Jul-2008
Sep-2007
Nov-2006
Jan-2006
Mar-2005
May-2004
Jul-2003
Sep-2002
Nov-2001
Jan-2001
Mar-2000
May-1999
Jul-1998
Sep-1997
Nov-1996
Jan-1996
Mar-1995
May-1994
Jul-1993
Sep-1992
Nov-1991
Jan-1991
Mar-1990
May-1989
Jul-1988
Sep-1987
Nov-1986
Jan-1986
Mar-1985
May-1984
Jul-1983
Sep-1982
Nov-1981
Jan-1981
Mar-1980
The labour force is different: participation rates
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
Males
30.0
Females
20.0
Persons
10.0
0.0
Work matters more
 Australians are working more and more
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
1979
40.0
2009
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Male
Female
Persons
Work and care combine for many
 Workers torn between work and care and the rest of
their lives?
 A third of workers responsible for the care of children 0-
14 years in their households
 Boundaries between work and home are weaker
 Work is greedy and expansive
We feel pressed for time
60
50
Always feel rushed and
pressed for time
Often feel rushed and
pressed for time
40
30
Always or often
20
10
0
Men
Women
Persons
4. The job is different – for some
Hours of work have changed
Hours of work have changed
Along with the reach of technology
Where and how we work has changed
Personal and Other Services ;
Cultural and Recreational Services ;
Health and Community Services ;
Education ;
Government Administration and Defence ;
Property and Business Services ;
Finance and Insurance ;
Communication Services ;
Transport and Storage ;
Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants ;
Retail Trade ;
Wholesale Trade ;
Construction ;
Electricity, Gas and Water Supply ;
Manufacturing ;
Mining ;
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing ;
0
Nov-2008
200
400
May-1991
600
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
Nov-1984
Employment growth by occupation 5 years and 10 years to 2008
49.4%
Associate Professionals
16.2%
41.1%
Managers and Administrators
25.6%
37.5%
Occupation group
Professionals
18.3%
Intermediate Clerical, Sales and
Service Workers
20.8%
8.7%
Tradespersons and Related
Workers
19.5%
13.7%
Intermediate Production and
Transport Workers
17.3%
22.3%
Elementary Clerical, Sales and
Service Workers
6.7%
-10%
Growth (%) - 5 years to November 2008
4.3%
Labourers and Related Workers
Advanced Clerical and Service
Workers
Growth (%) - 10 years to November 2008
1.9%
0.6%
0.1%
-1.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Growth
Source: DEEWR (2008) New Jobs: Employment trends and prospects for Australian industries
60%
Employment 1978-2009
Part-time and full-time employment, 1983, 1991, 2009 by sex, Australia (‘000)
Part-time persons
Part-time females
Part-time males
Jan-2009
Full-time persons
Dec-1991
Mar-1983
Full-time females
Full-time Males
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Source: ABS Labour Force, Australia, Cat no 6202.0.55.001, Spreadsheets, Jan 2009
Looking ahead: Projected jobs growth by industry, 5 years to
2012/13
Source: DEEWR (2008) New Jobs: Employment trends and prospects for Australian industries
Casual and part-time work
Source: Campbell, 2007, p 49
* Definition of '% casual' = casual employees in waged work
** Figures are for late 2006 rather than October 2007
Union ‘voice’ at work has changed
 1990 40.5% in unions
 2007 18.9%
 What explains fall?
 Change in industry structure
 Change in forms of employment
 Privatisation of public bodies
 Anti-union recruitment law
 Assertive employer strategies
 Weakness in union strategies
The job affects us differently
 Annual survey of Work-life outcomes across Australia
(AWALI n=1500 or 3000)
 Most Australians are reasonably happy with their work-
life balance
 But many are affected by work-life strain and time
shortages
 And it affects not just them, but their household and
community interaction.
Work-life outcomes are shaped by
 Hours of work – short hours good, long hours bad
 Long commutes are bad – and are often paired with long hours








at work
Fit between actual and preferred hours – good fit is good
Half don’t have a good fit
Occupation – managers, professionals do badly
Gender – women do worse
Those with care responsibilities do worse
Quality of supervision and supportive workplace culture matter
Employee-centred flexibility matters
Poor quality job (ie insecure jobs, feeling overloaded at work)
result in worse work-life outcomes
5. Households are different
 More single parents
 More dual earners
 More commuting
 More rushed and pressed for time
 More divorce and change
 28% of marriages entered into in 1985–1987
expected to end in divorce
 33% for all marriages entered into in 2000–
2002.
 More debt – six fold in 18 years
But not household work
6. Generational change?
Baby boomers, Gen X, Gen Y
Source McCrindle.com.au http://www.mccrindle.com.au/resources.htm
Gen X: born 1961-74, now 35-48 years





1980s recession, 1990s recession, burned Gen X
Many saw their parents – long term loyal workers – sacked
Many faced unemployment themselves in 1990s
Have worked for many employers
Have faced the understaffing consequences of the 1980s
 Intensification of work, overwork
 Not very loyal to the boss
 If they get the chance – through a tight labour market – they will
‘push back’ against the boss
 Don’t want to be ‘agents of change’
 Have been stressed by work: Value good health, may not have it
 Money/earnings matter: highly mortgaged
Gen Y: born 1975-90, now 19-34 years





Much more advantaged
Need to be convinced to work
Won’t work like baby boomers
Much more highly qualified
Like Gen X, they see
 Intensification of work, overwork
 Not very loyal to the boss
 If they get the chance – through a tight labour market – they will ‘push
back’ against the boss
 Money matters less than
 Enjoyment and non-pecuniary rewards of work
 Challenge, learning, interesting, ‘valuable’ job
 Don’t look for job security in the same way
 Look for control, time
New generations of workers…
 May be significantly different
 Are likely to be looking for different life-time work
engagement
 Enjoyable work
 Good bosses, good colleagues
 A balance of work with rest of life, especially care
 Challenging work
 Reward for skill and experience
 Learning that is integrated in the job
Gen X: Maybe….?
7. What does all this mean?
 For low paid workers?
Socio-economic difference is vital
 Gail Kelly
‘Rosa’
Low paid workers
 Growing proportion in many industrialised countries
 Likely to increase with increases in care workers
 Many have skills, qualifications
 But skills/quals have not raised pay or prospects
 Rate of return for low level certificates not very
positive
 Low paid jobs: sometimes ‘tiny’, with limited
progression, and often over-qualification
Why low paid workers train
 Many low paid workers ‘train’
 For compliance reasons
 For employer subsidy
 Because someone, somewhere believes better quals mean
better jobs – often an untested proposition
 Ewart Keep’s work on workplace context
 Many low paid workers appropriately hesitant about training
 Our research in aged care, food processing and retail:
 Hard for many to train because of time and money pressures
 Strong ‘push’ factors (compliance, employer subsidy)
 Weak ‘pull’ factors (higher pay? better job?)
What does all this mean for
educators?
 Workers are different, live in different households, do
different jobs
 Skill needs are going to keep changing
 Easy assumptions about ‘add skills/quals’ for low paid
workers are flawed
 And education of lower paid workers needs to take
account of context
 Including analysis of ‘push’ and ‘pull’ factors
 The recession is not the main story: the aging,
changing workforce, and its changing workplace and
household context is.
Further reading
 DEEWR (2008) New Jobs: Employment trends and
prospects for Australian industries. DEEWR,
Canberra
 Ewart Keep (2009) ‘Internal and External Incentives to
Engage in Education and Training - A Framework for
Analysing the Forces Acting on Individuals?’,
http://www.cardiff.ac.uk/socsi/contactsandpeople/aca
demicstaff/I-L/professor-ewart-keep.html
 Skinner and Pocock (2008) Work, life and workplace
culture: The 2008 Australian work and life index,
Centre for work + Life, Adelaide.
http://www.unisa.edu.au/hawkeinstitute/cwl/publicat
ions.asp