Transcript FASFEPA - Osceola County School District

FASFEPA
Joy Frank
Florida Association of District School
Superintendents
September 16, 2009
The Economy
Economy Lost Ground
• Florida’s growth now declining.
• State Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ranked us
48th in the nation in real growth with a decline
of (-1.6%) in 2008.
• In 2005, Florida was ranked 2nd in the nation.
Recession
• U.S. economy has been in a recession since
December 2007.
• Impact of recession on Florida has been
particularly severe.
• Longest recession now on record – and
projected to last at least through Spring 2010.
The Reasons?
• Home prices fell at national level for 1st time
since Great Depression (expected to fall 35%
from peak).
• Financial markets experienced worst credit
crunch since Great Depression.
• U.S. recession spread globally.
• Florida hit hard by two housing related
shocks: home prices and credit tightening.
Population Growth Stalled
• Population growth is state’s primary engine of
economic growth, fueling both employment
and income growth.
• Population declined for 1st time in 63 years.
Population dropped by 58,000 people
between 2008-2009.
Population, con’t.
• This is 1st decline since large numbers of
military personnel left Florida in 1946 after
WWII.
• Population growth was between 2.0%-2.6%
from mid 1990’s to 2006, then began to slow –
only reaching 0.7% in 2008.
• Population expected to rebound in future –
averaging 1.1% between 2025 and 2030.
Unemployment
• Unemployment rate for July 2009 – 10.7%;
representing 987,000 jobless out of labor
force of 9,193,000. Rate is up 4.4% from July
2008 rate.
• FL unemployment rate is 1.3% higher than
national unemployment rate of 9.4%.
• Has not been this high since October 1975
when it was 11.0%.
• Projected rate of 11.0% in Spring 2010.
Housing Market
• Existing home prices flattening at median
price of $148,000 – a 44% decline from peak
median price of $257,800 in June 2006.
• Foreclosures – in 2008 – 2nd Highest # of
Filings (385,309 properties); 2nd Highest
Foreclosure Rate (4.52% of housing units
received at least 1 filing during year).
• May 2009 Highest – Lee, Orange, Miami-Dade,
Broward
Economy Will Rebound
• By Summer 2010, growth rates will begin a
slow return. In the meantime…
• Florida housing should turnaround and led by:
– Falling home prices begin to attract buyers and
clear inventory (FL below national average in June
2009: $181,000 nationally vs. $148,000 in
Florida…18.5% below)
– Long-run sustainable demand caused by
population growth and household formation.
– Florida’s unique demographics and aging of baby
boom generation.
Revenue
• Strength will be slow to return.
• Credit Market, while much improved, remains
sluggish and still difficult to access.
• Global recessionary conditions affect
international migration, tourism and spending
decisions, as well as exports.
• U.S. Consumers responding to massive wealth
destruction and tighter credit conditions.
• Recovery in Florida housing market not
anticipated to begin until latter half of 2010-11
FY.
GR Estimating Conference
• Since March GR Estimating Conference,
weakening employment picture in Florida and
U.S. delayed economic recovery.
• Estimate of GR collections for 2009-10 FY
reduced by $147.1 million or less than 1%
below estimate from March.
• For 2010-11 FY, expected revenues were
reduced by $44.2 million from earlier forecast.
GR Estimating Conference, cont.
• Estimated revenue collections for 2009-10 FY
are still less than receipts for 2008-09 FY, by
$332.4 million or 1.6%.
• Forecast for 2010-11 FY remains positive,
hopefully marking an end to four consecutive
years of declining revenue receipts.
GR Estimating Conference, cont.
• Underlying forecast is assumption that
extreme financial and economic stress will
improve by late spring 2010.
• Thereafter, months of modest growth
expected before full recovery begins in spring
of 2011.
• Revenue collections are not anticipated to
exceed 2005-06 level within 3-year forecast
horizon.
Declining Enrollment
• On statewide basis, K-12 enrollment has been
declining for the past 3 years.
• 2009-10 legislative appropriation contemplates a
further decline of nearly 10,000 FTE.
• June forecast, predicts further decline in K-12
enrollment for the 2010-11 year of @2,700 FTE.
This forecast reflects increase of over 5000 in
virtual school enrollment; so the actual decline in
school districts will be greater.
General Revenue
FY
FY 2006-07 Actual
FY 2007-08 Actual
FY 2008-09 Estimated
FY 2009-10 Estimated
FY 2010-11 Estimated
FY 2011-12 Estimated
FY 2012-13 Estimated
$Billions
26,404.1
24,112.1
21,025.6
20,693.2
22,097.0
23,914.8
25,879.4
Ad Valorem Assessments
YEAR
2006 Actual
2007 Actual
2008 Actual
2009 Actual
2010 Forecast
2011 Forecast
2012 Forecast
$Billions
1,648,441.7
1,824,905.7
1,818,991.3
1,622,946.1
1,520,210.2
1,537,830.8
1,579,456.2
Lottery Revenues
FY
FY 2008-09 Actual
FY 2009-10 Estimated
FY 2010-11 Estimated
FY 2011-12 Estimated
FY 2012-13 Estimated
$Millions
1,548.3
1,438.7
1,390.1
1,388.5
1,411.4
State School Trust Fund
FY
FY 2008-9 Actual
FY 2009-10 Estimated
FY 2010-11 Estimated
FY 2011-12 Estimated
FY 2012-13 Estimated
$Millions
218.2
121.4
140.7
147.9
155.7
PECO (Capital Outlay)
FY
FY 2008-09 Actual
FY 2009-10 Estimated
FY 2010-11 Estimated
FY 2011-12 Estimated
FY 2012-13 Estimated
$Millions
1,216.1
359.3
161.9
464.3
793.4
Additional Issues
• Enrollment increases in postsecondary
programs
• State Prison Population expected to increase
3.0%
• VPK expected to increase 3.5%
• Medicaid expected to increase 8.7%
Stimulus Funding
• Federal Stabilization Allocation in FEFP @$908
million.
• Additional funds from ARRA for Title I, IDEA,
School Lunch, etc.
• Funds are nonrecurring, available for FY 201011.
• Stimulus funds associated with increased
federal matching rate for Medicaid expires
12/2010.
Class Size Reduction
• Constitutional caps at classroom
level will be implemented in the
2010-11 school year.
• Constitutional amendment to Class
Size provision failed to pass
Legislature in 2009.
Funding Cliff!!!!!
High School Grading
System
SB 1908 – Beginning in 2009-10 school year,
50% of school grade will be based on existing
FCAT – related factors; remaining 50%:
• School’s graduation rate
• Performance and participation of students in
AP, IB, DE, AICE, and industry certification
• Postsecondary readiness of students
• Graduation rate of at-risk students
• Performance on EOC, when available
• Growth or decline from year to year
Graduation Rate
• Calculation
– In 2009-10 and 2010-11, grad rate calculated
using the NGA 4-year cohort method (GEDs
counted as non-graduates).
– Beginning in 2011-12 – to ensure consistency with
federal reporting criteria – rate calculated using
new federal uniform graduation rate criteria.
Graduation Rate
• Under current regulations, 2011-12 is 1st year
states are required to use this method for
federal reporting and AYP determinations.
• At this time, federal regulations indicate that
GEDs, Special Diplomas, and transfers to Adult
Education would be counted as non-graduates
under this method.
• May be subject to change with reauthorization
of NCLB.
Participation in Accelerated Coursework –
Proposed Calculation
Numerator
All 9th -12th graders who took exam/course
during academic year (weighted)
_____________________________________
Denominator
All 11th-12th graders
Acceleration Participation
Schools earn weighted credit for number exams or
courses student takes. Proposed weighting system:
Weight
Participation Outcome
1.00
1 Exam/Course Taken
1.10
2 Exams/Courses Taken
1.20
3 Exams/Courses Taken
1.30
4 Exams/Courses Taken
1.40
5 Exams/Courses Taken
+0.1
For Each Additional
Exam/Course Taken
Performance in Accelerated Coursework –
Proposed Calculation
Numerator
Number of successful completions in accelerated
coursework (weighted) by student
_______________________________________
Denominator
All 9th-12th graders who took an accelerated
exam/course during academic year
Performance in Accelerated Coursework
Weighting Proposal for Performance
Measure will be based on credits earned.
• Depending on score on AP, IB, and/or AICE, students
receive weight in formula based on number of
postsecondary courses for which student earns
credit as determined by Articulation Coordinating
Committee’s Credit-by-Exam Equivalencies list.
• Successful completion (“C” or higher) of DE course
leads to student earning credit on one course.
• Successful passage of Industry Certification exam.
Performance in Accel. Coursework – Successful
Completions:
AP – Score of 3
1 Successful Completion
AP - Score of 4 or 5
1 or 2 Successful Completions
IB - Score of 4
1 Successful Completion
IB - Score of 5, 6, or 7
1 or 2 Successful Completions
AICE - Passing Score on AS Level AICE Exam
1 Successful Completion
AICE - Passing Score on A Level AICE Exam
1 or 2 Successful Completions
DE – Passing grade of “C” or higher
1 Successful Completion
In. Cert. – Earning industry cert. by exam
1 or Multiple/Successful
Completions
Acceleration Performance
In formula, schools earn weighted credit for number of
successful completions student earns. Proposed
weighting system:
Weight
Performance Outcome
1.00
1 Successful Completion
1.10
2 Successful Completions
1.20
3 Successful Completions
1.30
4 Successful Completions
1.40
5 Successful Completions
+0.1
For Each Additional Successful Outcome
Post2ndary Readiness – Proposed Calculation
Numerator
Number of students scoring “ready” on SAT, ACT,
and/or CPT any time during high school
_______________________________________
Denominator
On-time high school graduates who score a
Level 3 or higher on 10th Grade FCAT in
Reading or Math (depending on component)
Graduation Rate for At-Risk Students
• Track the 4-year high school graduation rate of
students who scored a Level 2 or lower on both FCAT
Reading and Mathematics in 8th Grade.
• If school does not have at least 10 students in that
subgroup, school’s overall graduation rate will be
substituted for this measure. (Consistent with what
currently done in school grades related to learning
gains of lowest performing students or bottom
quartile.)
Growth or Decline in Components – Proposal
• Schools earn escalating number of points based on magnitude
of improvement.
• Additional points awarded based on number of points school
improved (growth from prior year); up to 20 additional points.
• Schools lose 5 points if component declines by at least 10
percentage points.
• Examples:
• Growth: Acceleration performance improves from 25% to
32%; school earns an additional 7 points resulting in total of
39 (32+7).
• Decline: Acceleration performance declines from 30% to
20%; school would lose additional 5 points resulting in total of
15 points (20-5).
Additional Requirement
• Law stipulates that for high school to be designated
as having a grade of “A”, the school must
demonstrate that at-risk students are making
adequate progress.
• Recommended Threshold: 75%; or
– 1 percentage point improvement over prior year if
percentage is within 10 points of target.
– 5 percentage point improvement over prior year if
percentage is beyond 10 points of target.
• This requirement is similar to current learning gains
requirements for the Low 25%.
Graduation
Acceleration
Nat’l Governors
Association (NGA)
4-year cohort based
rate (GEDs count as
non-graduates)
Number of
accelerated
exams/courses
taken
(9th-12th grade)
divided by all 11th12th graders
Readiness
Growth/Decline
Number of students
For each
scoring “ready” in component schools
Reading via SAT,
may earn up to 20
ACT, or CPT
additional points
divided by high
for GROWTH (40
school graduates
points for factors
who earned a 3+ on worth 200 points)
their 10th grade
FCAT Reading
NGA; only students
Number of
Number of students
For each
who scores Level 1
accelerated
scoring “ready” in component schools
or 2 on the 8th
successes earned
Math via SAT, ACT,
may lose 5
Grade FCAT Reading divided by students
or CPT divided by
additional points
and Math
enrolled in/took
high school
for DECLINE (10
(AT-RISK GRAD
exam in accelerated
graduates who
points for factors
RATE)
coursework
earned a 3+ on
worth 200 points)
their 10th grade
FCAT Math
High School Grading Matrix
New 50% (with points possible)
Graduation
Acceleration
Readiness
Overall Rate
200
Participation
200
Performance on
Reading
100
At-Risk Rate
100
Performance
100
Performance on
Math
100
Total Graduation
Points
300
Total Acceleration
Points
300
Total Readiness
Points
200
Total Points
Possible
800
Legislative Issues
•
•
•
•
•
•
Political Climate
Budget
Budget
Budget
Class Size Reduction
High School Graduation Standards
Sources
• The Florida Legislature, Office of Economic and
Demographic Research, http://edr.state.fl.us
• Agency for Workforce Innovation;
www.employflorida.com
• Bureau of Economic and Business Research;
http://www.bebr.ufl.edu
• Smith letter to School Superintendents – 8/14/09
• High School Grading System – PowerPoint by Juan
Copa, Bureau Chief, Research & Evaluation,
[email protected]