Transcript PowerPoint プレゼンテーション

August 10th, 2005
Financial Futures in TFX
(Euroyen Futures)
Presenter: Shozo Ohta
Senior Managing Director
Tokyo Financial Exchange Inc.
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PART 1. Historical Volumes of Euroyen
1. Euroyen Trading Volume (from launch to present)
40,000,000
35,000,000
Feb. 9, 1999
zero-interest rate policy begins
(overnight call rate)
30,000,000
25,000,000
March 19, 2001
quantitative monetary
loosing policy begins
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
(Contracts)
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
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1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
PART 1. Historical Volumes of Euroyen
2. Euroyen volume vs loan assets market
(held by the domestic banking sector)
According to declines in loan assets,
Euroyen volumes are decreasing.
EY
35,000,000
510,000
Euroyen
Loan asset
490,000
30,000,000
470,000
25,000,000
450,000
20,000,000
430,000
15,000,000
410,000
10,000,000
390,000
5,000,000
370,000
(Contracts)
0
loans
40,000,000
350,000
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
years
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(yen)
(in billions)
PART 2. Signs of Recovery
1. The Changing Rates of Indices of Industrial Production, CPI , and real GDP
(industrial)
(CPI)
(%)
20
0.2
(GDP)
Indices of
Industrial
Production
2
0
10
-0.2
1
-0.4
00
-0.6
real
GDP
-1
-0.8
-10
-2
-1
-20
-1.2
3
6
2001
9
12
3
6
2002
9
12
3
6
2003
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9
12
3
6
2004
9
12
3
2005
CPI
PART 2. Signs of Recovery
2. Signs of Policy Change by Bank of JAPAN
-June 2, 2005, allow balance of current account to break minimum target (30 trillion yen)
of quantitative monetary loosing policy.
<Comments by some board members>
“The economy is at the
dawn of exiting the leveloff stage.”
Toshihiko Fukui (BOJ Governor)
“Now that the financial
crisis has passed, we
should lower our current
account target.”
by Toshikatsu Fukuma (Policy Board
Member)
“Breaking the current account
minimum target is the first step
towards interest rate normalization.
The quantitative monetary loosing
policy can be lifted in a year.”
by Atsushi Mizuno (Policy Board Member)
Economic and Price Forecasts by the Policy Board of BOJ
FY 2005 end
Previous Forecast
FY 2006 end
(%)
Real GDP
Domestic CGPI
CPI (except Fresh Foods)
+1.2 ~ +1.6
+0.8 ~ +1.0
-0.1 ~ +0.1
+2.2 ~ +2.6
+0.2 ~ +0.5
-0.1 ~ +0.2
+1.3 ~ +1.7
+0.2 ~ +0.5
+0.2 ~ +0.4
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PART 2. Signs of Recovery
3. Recent Euroyen Volumes (monthly)
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
(Contracts)
(Contracts) Jan
04
Feb
04
Mar
04
Apr
04
May
04
Jun
04
Jul
04
Aug
04
Sep
04
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Oct
04
Nov
04
Dec
04
Jan
04
Feb
05
Mar
05
Apr
05
May
05
Jun
05
PART 3. Future Potential
1. Japanese Government Bond (Balance) vs household assets
700
1,500
balance
1,400
household financial
asset
500
1,300
400
1,200
300
1,100
200
1,000
100
900
0
800
(yen)
(in trillions)
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
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household assets
Balance
600
~Mounting Magma
in Japanese
Financial Market~
(yen)
(in trillions)
PART 3. Future Potential
2. Trend of major Short-term Interest Rate futures
350,000,000
More than
8 times in
10 years!
Euroyen (TFX)
300,000,000
Eurodollar (CME)
250,000,000
EURIBOR (Euronext.liffe)
More than
4 times in
5 years!
200,000,000
Global
Uptrend
150,000,000
JAPAN:
Zero-interest rate
policy begins
100,000,000
potential
Quantitative monetary
loosing policy begins
50,000,000
0
(contracts)
1990
1995
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Euroyen paralyzed by ultra easy monetary policy,
while global trend of STIR futures is strikingly on the upward.
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2004
Thank you！
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Tokyo Financial Exchange Inc.
Market Promotion Department
TEL：81-3-3514-2440
E-Mail：[email protected]
© TFX 2005
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