Transcript CEEC – Transition and Enlargement

Theorie und Politik der
Europäischen Integration
Theory and Politics of
Eropean Integration
Lecture 6
Open Economies Macroeconomics
Monetary history of Europe
Choice of Exchange Rate Systems
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Last Lecture
•
•
Growth effects, capital and labour market integration
Growth effects
· Static and dynamic effects of integration
· Static: allocation effects
· Neoclassical (Solow) growth model: temporary growth effects, in
steady state higher income level
· Endogenous growth models: continuous growth effects via higher
investment in physical and human (knowledge) capital which
increases rate of technological progress
· Empirical evidence: higher transitional growth through integration
•
Capital market integration
· Integration equalises capital endowments and interest rates
· Creates winners and loses in sending and receiving countries
· Aggregate income gain
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Last Lecture
•
Labour market integration
· Institutions
· Scale of migration and income differences
· Composition of migrants, self-selection and out-selection
Leftover:
· Labour market impact
– Standard model with perfect labour markets
– Equalisation of wage rates
– Aggregate gains, but winners and losers
– More complex models:
– Capital stock adjustment
– Wage rigidities and unemployment
– Empirical evidence
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
Integration of Labour Markets
Impact on the labour market
• Standard model with fixed capital stock, clearing labour
markets and no trade
• labour loses in host country, benefits in sending countries
• capital loses sending country, wins in host country
• natives benefits in host country, lose in home country
• Models with unemployment
• Ambiguous impact
• Models with capital stock adjustment
• larger economic gains
• neutral for aggregate wages and unemployment
• Models with trade
• neutral in small open countries (FPI theorem)
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
Integration of Labour Markets
Standard model of labour migration (like capital)
euros
euros
L’
migration
wo
w’
A
B
C
MPL*
D
MPL
E
Lo
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
L*o
w’
F
w*
o
Lo+ L*o
Theory and Politics of European Integration
Integration of Labour Markets
Standard model of labour migration (like capital)
• Initial situation
• Marginal product of labour at
destination higher than in
sending country
• Hence, wage at destination
higher than in sending
country
euros
euros
L’
migration
wo
w’
A
B
C
MPL*
D
MPL
E
Lo
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
L*o
w’
F
w*
o
Lo+ L*o
Theory and Politics of European Integration
Integration of Labour Markets
Standard model of labour migration (like capital)
• Labour moves from sending
country to destination country
• New labour endowments L’
• Hence, marginal product of
labour are equal in case of
perfect mobility
• Wage at destination falls and
increases at sending region
euros
euros
L’
migration
wo
w’
A
B
C
MPL*
D
MPL
E
Lo
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
L*o
w’
F
w*
o
Lo+ L*o
Theory and Politics of European Integration
Integration of Labour Markets
Standard model of labour migration (like capital)
• Welfare analysis
• Native labour force at
destination loses A
• Native labour force in sending
country gain F
• Migrants gain C+D
euros
euros
L’
migration
wo
w’
A
B
C
MPL*
D
MPL
E
Lo
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
L*o
w’
F
w*
o
Lo+ L*o
Theory and Politics of European Integration
Integration of Labour Markets
Standard model of labour migration (like capital)
• Welfare analysis (cont.)
• Capital owners at destination
gain A+B
• Capital owners at sending
country lose F+D
• Net effect: B+C
euros
euros
L’
migration
wo
w’
A
B
C
MPL*
D
MPL
E
Lo
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
L*o
w’
F
w*
o
Lo+ L*o
Theory and Politics of European Integration
Integration of Labour Markets
A model with unemployment
Real
wage
Sc
S
Real
wage
Sc
uo
S
uo
wo
wo
w’
u’
D
D
D’
Lo
LI
Employment
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
L’ Lo
Employment
Theory and Politics of European Integration
Integration of Labour Markets
A model with unemployment
Real
wage
Sc
uo
wo
D
Lo
LI
Real
wage
S
Sc
Explaining unemployment:
uo
wages are
wo set in collective
bargain. This shifts labour
w’ from S to Sc.
supply curve
Firms hire workers until
wages equal marginal
product. At given wage, more
peoples seek jobs than firms
hire workers. Difference is
unemployment.
(left-hand panel)
Employment
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
L’ Lo
S
u’
D
D’
Employment
Theory and Politics of European Integration
Integration of Labour Markets
A model with unemployment
Real
wage
Sc
S
Impact of migration on native
workers (right-hand panel):
Assume migrants are willing to
uo wage than
work for lower
wonatives. If migrants and natives
are net substitutes, then labour
demand for natives declines.
Result: At first instance
unemployment increases. But
then wages decline, and
unemployment can remain the
D of
same. Depends on slope
supply curves. Total employment
(natives+migrants) increases.
Lo
LI
Employment
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Real
wage
Sc
S
uo
wo
w’
u’
D
D’
L’ Lo
Employment
Theory and Politics of European Integration
Integration of Labour Markets
A model with unemployment
Real
wage
wo
Sc
S
Converse
is true if
o
u
migrant workers are net
complements. Than
labour demand shifts
outward from D to D‘. At
first instance,
employment increases. If
wages adjust, then
unemployment can
D
remain the same.
Depends again on slope
of supply curve.
Lo
LI
Employment
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Real
wage
w’
Sc
S
u’
uo
wo
D’
D
Lo L’
Employment
Theory and Politics of European Integration
Integration of Labour Markets
Other adjustment machanisms: capital stock adjustment
•
•
•
•
incentives for domestic or international investment
increases if labour supply increases
capital-labour ratio remains eventually constant
hence, factor prices remain constant as well
empirical evidence: capital-output ratio and, hence,
productivity adjusted capital-labour ratio is constant over
time (Kaldor, 1961)
· e.g. Western Germany: capital-output ratio has increased
from 3.0 (1960) to 3.14 (1990)
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
Growth effects and capital market integration
Theory: Why capital stock adjustment in Solow diagram
euros/L
GDP/L
Y/L*
Bm
B
Y/Lm
d(K/L)
s(GDP/L)
A
Im
Dm
Am
K/Lm
K/L*
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
K/L
Theory and Politics of European Integration
Integration of Labour Markets
Capital-output ratio in Western Germany
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
Integration of Labour Markets
Other adjustment mechanisms: trade
•
•
•
•
•
•
International goods prices depend not on domestic
supply (small country assumption)
Host countries imports after labour supply shock less
labour intensive goods, exports less capital intensive
goods (trade substitution)
production share of labour intensive sector increases,
production share of capital intensive sector declines
(Rybczynski-effect)
prices on goods markets remain constant
prices on factor prices remain constant (Factor Price
Insensitivity Theorem)
Large economies: picture changes if domestic supply
affects global supply curve and global goods prices
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
Integration of Labour Markets
Estimating the labour market effects: example
•
•
•
•
•
Four scenarios:
1 % immigration of labour force: high skilled only
1 % immigration of labour force: medium skilled only
1 % immigration of labour force: low skilled only
Annual inflow at present: 0,5% of population, 0,7% of
labour force in Germany in year 2014
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
Integration of Labour Markets
Brain Gain? (1% immigration of high-skilled)
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
Integration of Labour Markets
Middle of the road (1% immigration of medium skilled)
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
Integration of Labour Markets
Gains from Ghetto? (1% immigration of less skilled)
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
Integration of Labour Markets
An application to the EU’s Eastern enlargement
•
•
Parameters of the model are estimated for the EU-15
and the NMS-8 following the same procedure
We simulate the labour supply shock triggered by the
EU’s Eastern enlargement 2003-07
· Actual inflow minus expected influx under conditions before
Enlargement
· Actual participation rates and qualification structures
· Consideration of ‘brain waste’, i.e. employment below
qualification
•
Calculate impact for GDP, GDP per capita, native’s factor
income, wages, unemployment
· Distinguish effects for skill groups
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
Integration of Labour Markets
An application to the EU’s Eastern enlargement
EU-15
NMS-8
EU-23
GDP long run
0.26
-1.10
0.20
GDP short run
0.13
-0.52
0.11
wages
long run
0.00
0.00
0.00
wages short run
-0.09
0.25
-0.07
Unemployment long run
0.02
-0.02
0.00
Unemployment short run
0.06
-0.42
-0.03
Changer of labour force
0.36
-1.16
0.11
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Monetary Integration: Overview I
• An Introduction to Open Economies Macroeconomics
• The long-term neutrality of money: theory
• The short-term non-neutrality of money
• The IS-LM diagram
• Exchange rate and fiscal policies and exchange rate ragimes
• A monetary history of Europe
•
•
•
•
Metallic money
The gold standard
The interwar period
The post-war period: from Bretton Woods to EMU
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
Monetary Integration: Overview II
• Choice of an exchange rate regime
•
Exchange rate and monetary policy
•
The range of exchange rate policies
•
Choices
· Criteria
· Fix or float?
· Regional arrangements
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
A Monetary History of Europe
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
An Introduction to Open Economy Macroeconomics:
Three basic principles
1
Long term: neutrality of money and PPP
2
Short term: non-neutrality of money, real and monetary
matters interfere (cyclical fluctuations and shocks)
3
Interest parity condition
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
The long-term neutrality of money: theory
inflation
rate
AD
long-term AS
AD
short-term AS
AD: Why downward
sloping?
Inflation erodesC
purchasing power of
money and
discourages
B
consumption and
investment
A
0
output gap
The AS-AD model output gap (Actual – Trend GDP)
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
The long-term neutrality of money: theory
Inflation
rate
AD
long-term AS
AD
short-term AS
AS: Why upward
sloping?
C
B
Depression results in
lower wages and
lower prices of firm,
while boom results in
higher wage and
price pressures
A
0
output gap
The AS-AD model output gap (Actual – Trend GDP)
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
The long-term neutrality of money: theory
Inflation
rate
AD
long-term AS
AD
short-term AS
Long-run:
C
B
A
0
If prices rise faster
than wages,
purchasing power
declines, creates
wage pressure,
eventually we move
back to long-run
wage-price relation at
C.
output gap
The AS-AD model output gap (Actual – Trend GDP)
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Long term neutrality implication: PPP
• The real exchange rate
• Defined as  = EP/P*
• E = nominal exchange rate; P = domestic price;
P* = foreign price
• Purchasing Power Parity (PPP): E offsets changes in P/P*
• So  is constant
• Many caveats, though:
• PPP seems to hold in the long run, but not in
the short and medium run
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Short term non-neutrality of money
• From AD-AS: the short-run AS schedule
• So monetary policy matters in the short run
• Channels of monetary policy
• The interest rate channel
• The credit channel
• The stock market channel
• The exchange rate channel
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Monetary policy in the IS-LM model
interest
rate
foreign
level
LM
A
B
LM‘
D
IS‘
C
IS
Output-gap
(Actual-Trend GDP)
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Monetary policy in the IS-LM model
interest
rate
LM
1.
2.
3.
4.
Foreign
level
LM‘
increase in money supply moves LM to LM‘,
interst rates declines initially to B,
spending expands and economy moves to C
capital flows out until interest rate is back
to international level
A
B
D
IS‘
C
IS
Output-gap
(Actual-Trend GDP)
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Monetary policy in the IS-LM model
interest
rate
LM
LM‘
Flexible exchange rate:
• currency depreciates
• current account improves
(IS shifts to IS‘)
• output moves eventually to D
Foreign
level
A
B
D
IS‘
C
IS
Output-gap
(Actual-Trend GDP)
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Monetary policy in the IS-LM model
interest
rate
LM
LM‘
Fixed exchange rate:
• Central Bank must intervene in exchange
market
• money supply shrinks until LM curve
shifts back from LM‘ to LM and output to A
Foreign
level
A
B
D
IS‘
C
IS
output-gap
(Actual-Trend GDP)
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Monetary policy in the IS-LM model
interest
rate
LM
LM‘
Thus, there is no room for
monetary policy with a fixed
exchange rate!
Foreign
level
A
B
D
IS‘
C
IS
output-gap
(Actual-Trend GDP)
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Fiscal policy in the IS-LM model
interest
rate
LM
LM‘
B
Foreign
level
A
C
IS‘
IS
Output-gap
(Actual-Trend GDP)
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Fiscal policy in the IS-LM model
interest
rate
LM
LM‘
B
Foreign
level
A
C
IS‘
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Fiscal policy shifts IS curve to IS’.
IS
LM stays where it is.
Output-gap
Output moves to B.
(Actual-Trend
The interest rate rises above foreign
level. GDP)
Capital flows in to restore interest parity
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Fiscal policy in the IS-LM model
interest
rate
LM
LM‘
B
Foreign
level
A
C
IS‘
Fixed exchange rate:
IS
• Central Bank intervenes to prevent currency appreciation
Output-gap
• sells money such that increased money supply
shifts LM to LM’
(Actual-Trend GDP)
• economy moves eventually to point C
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Fiscal policy in the IS-LM model
interest
rate
LM
LM‘
B
Foreign
level
A
C
IS‘
IS
Flexible exchange rate:
Output-gap
• Capital flows in and currency appreciates
(Actual-Trend GDP)
• Current account worsens
• Demand
declines
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere
Europäischerback
Arbeitsmärkte to IS and the economy back to A
• Eventually,
IS’Integration
shifts
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Fiscal policy in the IS-LM model
interest
rate
Foreign
level
LM
LM‘
Thus, fiscal policy does
only work under fixed
exchange rates in small
open economies B
A
C
IS‘
IS
Output-gap
(Actual-Trend GDP)
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Exchange rate regimes and policy effectiveness
Monetary
policy
Fiscal policy
Fixed
exchange
rate
Ineffective
Effective
Flexible
exchange
rate
Effective
Ineffective
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
When does the regime matter?
• In the short run, changes in E are mirrored in
changes in  = EP/P*: P and P* are sticky
• In the long run,  is independent of E: P adjusts
• If P is fully flexible, the long run comes about
immediately and the nominal exchange rate does
not affect the real economy
• Put differently, the choice of an exchange rate
regime has mostly short run effects because prices
and wages are sticky
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
A Monetary History of Europe
Why studying history?
• Monetary union is the controversial end of a long
process. History helps understand.
• Since paper money was invented, Europe’s monetary
history carries important lessons. Particularly the bad
ones.
• Before paper money, Europe was a de facto monetary
union. Understand how it worked helps understand how
the new union (EMU) works.
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Metallic Money
•
•
•
•
Under metallic money (overlooking the difference
between gold and silver) the whole world was really a
monetary union
Seignorage as key source of public finance
· ‘shaving’ as a means to generate revenues
Multiplicity of money
Previous explicit unions only agreed on the metal content
of coins to simplify everyday trading
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Metallic Money: Some Details
• From immemorial until 19th century metallic money (gold or
silver) dominant means of payment
• Bimetallism (gold and silver) with fluctuating exchange rates
depending on discoveries
• Monetary unions as a tool of nation-building
• e.g. Germany: before 1871 different monetary standards
• Two historical monetary unions
• Latin Monetary Union (BE, FR, IT) to preserve bimetallism
• Scandinavian Monetary Union ceased at WWI
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Gold standard: The Global Monetary Union
• Classic gold standard period 1880-1914
• Frequent financial crises, armed conflicts and depressions
• Working of the gold standard: Hume’s “price-speciemechanism”
• (“specie” = money/gold)
• Key assumptions or macroeconomic principles
• long-run neutrality of money
· rate of inflation is driven by rate of money growth
• effect of money on interest rates
• Helps to understand working of EMU
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Neutrality of money and current account equilibrium
price
level
A
current account deficit
P1
current account surplus
M1
M0
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
gold money
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Neutrality of money and current account equilbrium
price
level
Money determines the
price level (in the long run)
A
P1
current account deficit
E
current account surplus
M
M0
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
gold money
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Neutrality of money and current account equilibrium
price
level
A
P*
current account deficit
E
current account surplus
M
M0
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Price level affects the trade balance
• If domestic prices are
high relative to foreign
prices, we have a deficit
• Conversely, relatively
lowgold
domestic
prices lead
money
to a trade surplus
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Neutrality of money and current account equilibrium
price
level
A
P*
current account deficit
E
current account surplus
M
M0
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
If we have a Current Account deficit,
money flows out and the money
stocks contract. Eventually,
equilibrium is achieved where the
domestic price level equals the
international.
The Current Account is
gold money
balanced.
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Balance of payment equilibrium
BoP
E
0
M
M0 gold money
A
inflow of money
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
outflow of money
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Balance of payment equilibrium
BoP
0
Hume’s mechanism: return to balance is automatic.
• If we start with a high money stock (e.g. point M0),
domestic prices are high, balance of payments turns in
deficit and gold flows out, but commodities in (current
account surplus)
• Why? We have to buy other goods by gold.
• Converse holds for low money stock in initial situation.
C
E
M
M0 gold money
A
inflow of money
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
outflow of money
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Financial account equilibrium
interest
rate
A
E financial account surplus
i*
financial account deficit
M0
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
M
gold money
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Financial account equilibrium
interest
rate
A
E financial account surplus
i*
financial account deficit
So far we have ignored financial sector. Capital flows
allow in short-term deviation from long-term
equilbrium.
• if the stock of money increases, the domestic interest
rate declines
M
M
gold money
• if the interest rate is below0 the international
rate i*, it
pays to borrow gold at home and ship it abroad, i.e.
capital
flows out
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Financial account equilibrium
interest
rate
A
E financial account surplus
i*
financial account deficit
Thus, if i > i*, capital account is in surplus, and
if i < i* it turns into a deficit
• Equilibrium is achieved if i = i*
M0
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
M
gold money
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Financial account equilibrium
interest
rate
A
E financial account surplus
i*
financial account deficit
Relation between financial and current account:
• Capital inflow requires high interest rate and
increases prices
• Both capital and current account deteriorate
•Trade route is slower, but both work in same direction
M
M
gold money
• In the long-term, capital flows0 equalise interest rates,
current account adjusts, such that the current account,
capital balance
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker and BoP is in equilibrium.
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Monetary equilibrium under gold standard
Summing up:
• Money in excess of M translates into balance of payment
deficits and gold outflows
• If money is in short supply (left of E = M), balance of
payments is in surplus and gold flows in
• Point A may correspond to a point with imbalances in current
and capital account, e.g. a point where the current account
deficit exactly matches the capital account surplus
• This forms however only a short-term equilbrium.
• Thus, the gold standard results in a balance of payments
equilibrium in the short-run, and a current account and
capital account equilibrium in the long-run where domestic
interest rates and prices equal the international ones.
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Monetary equilibrium under gold standard
• Financial markets support equilibrium: if money supply
declines, interest rate increases, which attracts capital
• Over time, if a country is in short supply of gold money
supply stringency creates increasing interest rates, growth
slow-down, higher unemployment and a downward pressure
on prices and wages
• All markets contribute to eliminate external imbalance, no
need for government intervention (in theory)
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Rules of the game and problems
• Full gold convertibility at fixed price of all banknotes
• Full backing. Central Bank holds same amount of gold as
notes issued
• Complete freedom of trade and capital mobility
• Problems:
• Sticky prices and wages (short-term disequilibria)
• World money supply driven by discoveries and money
demand driven by economic growth go not hand in hand
• Governments facing deficits tend to opt out of gold
standard
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Similarities to the EMU
• EURO replaces gold (no national money supply)
• Hume’s mechanism works in Eurozone:
• Balance of payments surplus translates into EURO inflows
• Balance of payments deficit translates into EURO outflows
• Exchange rate cannot be used to equilibrate external
deficits
• Adjustment has to work via prices and wages
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
The interwar period: the worst of all worlds
• Shipping gold became too dangerous and paper money
starts circulating widely
• Yet the authorities attempt to carry on with the gold
standard but:
• No agreement on how to set exchange rates between
paper monies
• An imbalanced starting point with war legacies
· High inflation
· High public debts
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
The interwar period: three case studies

The British case: return to gold standard pre-war parity and refusal to
devalue an overvalued currency relative to US breeds economic
decline. Abolished unsustainable gold standard in 1931 and devalued
currency by 30%. Cost: decade of miserable growth.
 The French case: high debts hoping for German’s reparations,
inflation soared after reparations failed. Return to gold standard and
devaluation in 1928; undervaluation and beggar-your-neighbour
policies protected economy first, but then others retaliate and the
currency becomes overvalued, badly hit by Great Depression.
• The German case: hyperinflation, gold standard no option
(reparations), devaluation and anti-inflation policy in 1924, turns into
overvaluation in the early 1930s, and, finally, evading the choice of an
appropriate exchange rate by resorting to ever-widening non-market
controls under Nazi government.
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Lessons so far
 We need a system, one way or another
• The gold standard – monetary unions – delivers automatic
return to equilibrium, but at the cost of booms and
recessions
• No agreement leads to exchange rate misalignments,
competitive devaluations and trade wars
• Domestic misbehaviour undermine fixed exchange rates such
as gold standard
• Exchange rate agreements require “rules of the game”,
including a conductor, e.g. city of London before WW I
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
European post-war arrangements
 An overriding desire for exchange rate stability
• Initially provided by the Bretton Woods system
• The US dollar as anchor and the IMF as conductor
• Gold convertibility of US-$: 35 US-$ per ounce
• Once Bretton Woods collapsed, the Europeans were left on
their own
• The timid Snake arrangement
• The European Monetary System
• The European Monetary Union
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
European postwar arrangements (cont.)
 The Bretton Wood collapse
• Financing the Vietnam war by public debt which fueled
inflation and created large current account deficits
• Diverging inflation rates and real appreciation pressures
of many currencies (e.g. DM)
• Suspension of gold convertibility and realignment 1971
(devaluation of 10 %)
• Collapse 1973
• The Snake arrangement
• Agreeing on stabilizing intra-European bilateral parities
• No enforcement mechanism: too fragile to survive
• Diverging inflation rates across European countries
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
The EMS: Super Snake
 Complements bilateral exchange rate commitments with a
•
•
•
•
support mechanism
Allows for prompt realignments to avoid misalignments
Emergence of the DM as the system’s anchor
But, still inflation divergence and misalignments kept
growing
1992-93 speculative attacks alsmost destroyed EMS, IT and
UK left, realignments of IR, ESP, PT
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
From EMS to EMU (EURO)
 EMS de facto doomed
• Convergence to Bundesbank standards means that all other
countries lost monetary independence
• Delors report prepared European Monetary and Financial
Union, plan for common currency
• EMU plan adopted at Maastricht Summit 1989
• 1999 exchange rates were irrevocably frozen, 2002 Euro
notes and coins were circulatred
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Lessons from history
Gold
standard
Interwar
Bretton
Woods
EMS
EMU
Long-lasting
misalignments must
be avoided
Yes
(automatic)
Yes
Yes
(not
possible)
Systems need to be
built coherently
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Policy misbehaviour is
ruled out
(largely)
Yes
Systems must able to
cope with shocks
Conductor existing
Yes
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
The choice of an exchange rate regime
An question and the answer
• The question: what to do with the exchange rates: fixed or
flexible?
• Viewpoint of an individual country, in contrast to systems
• Underlines the principles to evaluate the merits of a
monetary union
• The answer: there is no best arrangement
• A matter of trade-offs
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
What’s on the menu?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Free floating (e.g. US, Eurozone)
Managed floating (e.g. Japan)
Target zones (e.g. ‘snake’)
Crawling pegs (e.g. Poland under transition)
Fixed and adjustable (e.g. Bretton Woods +-1%)
Currency boards (e.g. Estonia, Lithuania in 1990s)
Dollarization/Euroization
Monetary union
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
The choice of an exchange rate regime
• The monetary policy instrument
• Can be useful to deal with cyclical disturbances
• Can be misused (inflation)
• The fiscal policy instrument
• Can also deal with cycles but is often politicized
• Can be misused (public debts, political cycles)
• Exchange rate stability
• Freely floating exchange rates move “too much”
• Fixed exchange rates eventually become misaligned
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
The old debate: fixed vs. float
• The case for flexible rates
• With sticky prices, need exchange rate flexibility to deal
with shocks
• Remove the exchange rate from politicization
• Monetary policy is too useful to be jettisoned
• The case for fixed rates
• Flexible rates move too much (financial markets are often
hectic)
• Exchange rate volatility: a source of uncertainty
• A way of disciplining monetary policy
• In presence of shocks, always possible to realign
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
The new debate: the two-corners solution
• Only pure floats or hard pegs are robust
• Intermediate arrangements (soft pegs) invite government
manipulations, over or undervaluations and speculative
attacks
• Pure floats remove the exchange rate from the policy
domain
• Hard pegs are unassailable (well, until Argentina’s currency
board collapsed…)
• In line with theory
• Soft pegs are half-hearted monetary policy commitments,
so they ultimately fail
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
The two-corners solution and the real world
• Fear of floating
• Many countries officially float but in fact
intervene quite a bit
• Fear of fixing
• Many countries declare a peg but let the
exchange rate move out of official bounds
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Fear of floating
140.00
130.00
Denmark (vis a vis €)
Sweden (vis a vis €)
Switzerland (vis a vis €)
Korea (vis a vis $)
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
1999M1 1999M7 2000M1 2000M7 2001M1 2001M7 2002M1 2002M7 2003M1 2003M7
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
The two-corners solution and the real world
• Fear of floating is deeply ingrained in many
European countries
• Fear of fixing partly explains the disenchantment
with the EMS and some reluctance towards
monetary union
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
Conclusions
• A menu hard to pick from: trade-offs are
everywhere
• All of this takes the view from a single country
• Systems involve many countries and rest on agreed
upon rules, including mutual support
• Since the end of Bretton Woods, there is no world
monetary system
• This leaves room for regional monetary systems.
Enters Europe’s experience
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker
Theory and Politics of European Integration
A Monetary History of Europe
NEXT LECTURE
January 15, 2015
•
Optimum Currency Areas
•
The European Fiscal and Growth Pact
Merry X-mas and happy new year 2015!
Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte
Universität Bamberg | [email protected] | www.uni-bamberg.de/sowi/bruecker