Transcript Parallel Session B_Presentation4_Yemen Urban Water

Yemen Urban Water
Extreme challenges, practical solutions and lessons for
the future – learning from the case of Taiz
Presentation by James Firebrace to ODI event
Groundwater, Poverty and Development
28 Nov 2014
Research financed by UK’s Conflict Prevention Pool
James Firebrace Associates Ltd
[email protected]
+44 1473 735430 / +44 7866 495523
+967 713 149 741
ODI Presentation Contents
•
•
•
•
Scene setting: Taiz and extreme water scarcity
Water and the Taiz economy
Water options looking ahead
Greater Taiz survey results
– Affordability of new water, water demand projections
– Situation of poorer households
• Transition issues, city distribution options
• Beyond Taiz:
– Pipeline communities
– Hinterland issues, Groundwater Protection Zones
2
Scene Setting
An overview of the Taiz situation
3
Taiz location at c.1000m, nearest port at Mokha
4
5
Increasing problems, increasing urgency
• Taiz now the greatest urban water challenge in the world
– “the iconic water scarce big city: too little water, too high, growing too
fast, with insufficient tax-revenues to finance new infrastructure and
much needed reforms” (Prof Tony Allan)
• City and hinterland conflicts
– Fresh flare ups in Haima
– Utility unable to enter new areas for drilling (insufficient potential
anyway)
– Delaying addressing the problem means increased conflict and a risk
of collapse of the city’s ever-deteriorating piped supply
• All key water indicators show alarming deterioration
6
– Price of water (tankers and kawthers) strongly rising (even before fuel
price rises)
– Per capita consumption declining
– Quality deteriorating
– Frequency of LC delivery declining
The situation in Taiz has been continually deteriorating
but most seriously since 2010
Taiz Data
Population Greater Taiz ‘000
LC (piped water)
LC Water Sold Mm3/yr
Pop Served by LC ‘000
% Population of Greater Taiz served
1996
320
2004
570
2010
750
2013
840
2.4
255
80%
4.1
317
56%
4.5
336
45%
2.9
365
43%
LC Served Population l/c/d
(LC water over whole population l/c/d)
LC Water Quality EC uS/cm
LC Water Delivery Interval
Tankers
Tanker users (% households)
Tanker price YR / 3m3 (av over year)
Tanker Water price $/m3
Tanker l/c/d
Dabbas (Kawther water)
Dabba users (% households)
Dabba Water price YR / 10litres
Dabba Water price $/m3
Dabba l/c/d
LC + Tankers + Kawther water
7l/c/d over whole population
26
20.5
2000
3 weeks
35
19.7
3000
2 weeks
37
16.4
4000
4 weeks
22
9.5
5600
1 to 2 months
1412
2.2
1605
2.5
58%
1990
3.1
80%
2825
4.4
4
5.5
6
8.8
35
16
1.3
35
16
1.5
85%
40
19
1.9
84%
50
23
1.9
25.8
26.7
24.3
20.2
Greater Taiz – growing fast, out along the main roads
where no mains connections and dependent on tankers
8
Taiz coping strategies to extreme water scarcity
• Pumping from the annual rainfall recharge
– Problem of successive dry years (exacerbated by climate change)
• Utility only able to provide water every 1 to 2 months
– and then to less than half the population of Greater Taiz
• The Taiz population has adapted with ingenuity and
enterprise. For water:
–
–
–
–
Storage of utility water (when it comes) in drums, baths, tanks...
Private tankers (‘wyatt’) deliver from private wells
Corner desalination shops (‘kawther’) to purify for drinking
Private networks in non-utility areas where there is still accessible
groundwater
– Rainwater collection and storage
– Free water for the poorest from mosques and wellheads
• For sanitation:
9
– Household sanitation - outside utility served areas (38% for
sanitation) households must construct their own tanks
Cartoon in Al-Jumhuriya Nov 2013, showing
dependence on tankered water
10
Water scarcity hits the poorest households hardest
• Some 15% of the households of Greater Taiz have an
income below 25,000YR/month ($120)
– i.e. less than $4/day for an average household of over seven
• Low income households are further disadvantaged by
their inability to store water from the utility supply – if
connected
– The lack of storage potential for poor households also means
they cannot benefit from collecting rainwater during the rainy
seasons
– Poor often get utility water last, and have to pay for at least 5m3
whatever they actually receive
• The % of household income spent on water is much
higher for the lower income groups
– Unless they rely of free water from mosques or wellheads
11
12
Water and the Taiz economy
13
Industry: water is key to the future economy of Taiz
• Water will be critical to the future growth prospects of industry in Taiz
– Revitalisation or relocation elsewhere
– Key issues are water reliability, water quality as components of the investment
climate (not so much price)
• Industrial growth will mean increased demand for desalinated water
– potential unit cost savings with higher volumes
– A revitalised industry in Taiz (7% growth) could require some 4x current water usage
by 2030
25.0
000m3/day 2010 baseline
of 6,000 m3/day
20.0
Relocation (-5%)
15.0
Stagnation (0%)
Past growth sustained (4.5%)
10.0
Revitalised Taiz (7%)
5.0
0.0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
How better water supply
affects industry
Water sector
(better quality, more
reliable, cheaper water)
(Dr C. Coles, JFA)
INDUCED
EFFECTS
Supply
chains
DIRECT
EFFECTS
Industrial
sectors
INDIRECT
EFFECTS
DYNAMIC EFFECTS:
Infrastructure development;
innovation; skills upgrades
etc.
Consumers
The Future of Taiz – Urbanisation and prosperity
Two potential drivers for urbanisation, one stabilising, one destabilising:
i) Urban economic revitalisation draws in a needed workforce
ii) Rural economic collapse throws out population it can no longer support
16
Reproduced from Economist 2.10.12
Options for increasing water supply
Note: little opportunity for reducing demand
(which is already way below international standards)
17
Integrated Water Resource Management
• Existing and alternative inland sources need
to be used as far as possible
• But each of these potential sources faces
constraints and volumes are limited
• Only desalination offers long term potential
at the volumes (and quality) needed
18
Integrated water: the main options for Taiz (1)
(illustrative, broad estimates only)
1
Potential
Project
Mokha - Taiz
desalination
2
New dams in
Wadi Rasyan
catchment
3
Hawban /
Hawgala
desal of
brackish /
polluted
groundwater
Burayhi
sewage
treatment
4
19
Major Issues
Major capital support necessary to deliver affordable water.
Distribution in Taiz needs careful reform. Support for water
supply projects of pipeline communities should be
integrated within the overall scheme
Only suitable location (Al-Amira) already constructed (and
silted up).Wet season only. Potential problems of silting,
leakage and evaporation. Poor history of success for such
projects. Viability unverified. Potential conflict problems
with downstream riparians
Already extensively used by the city (LKC + takers +
irrigation) and local villages, and highly stressed. Major
environmental challenge of how to manage the waste water
(ultimately polluted salt residues). Volumes will increase if
coupled with new water supply and project then becomes
more economically attractive. Conflict / management
issues. Aquifer will not recharge as these are increasingly
urban areas.
Currently waste water does not reach Burayhi as used for
irrigation. This could change with greater volumes used in
the city following desalination scheme. However output
only acceptable for agriculture (but this does support the
groundwater recharge). Needs satisfactory sewerage
infrastructure in Greater Taiz. Potential for compensating
extraction communities
000
m3/day
Yrs met
demand
unlimited
unlimited
in season
only
<1
0.5+
additional as
part used
already
<1
5+
Depending
on extent of
new water
4
Integrated water: the main options for Taiz (2)
(illustrative, broad estimates only)
5
6
Potential
Project
Three wadis
(new LC
drilling)
Run-off
management
7
Roof-top
rainwater
harvesting
8
Fixing leaks
in LC supply
20
Major Issues
No agreement with rural communities. High potential for
conflict. Small quantities only, far away (45 to 60 km) from
Taiz and uphill pumping. Even less if local communities also
supplied as occurs in existing rural-urban transfers.
The water captured presently ends up in the HawbanHawgala-Amira area where it is already captured. Road
surfacing with material allowing water penetration is capital
intensive - especially if necessary to replace existing
surfaces. Household recharge pits are expensive, silt up, fill
with garbage, promote malaria and rainwater catchment
will be preferred if household can afford such costs
Most of the houses that have the space to implement this
and the finances to do it already have this in place. Only the
better off are be able to afford it. High cost - the total cost
would be $137M (Gayth/ACE). Cheaper to collected
downstream in the areas in the Hawban-Hawgala-Amira
catchment, but without the advantage that it would be less
polluted if collected at source
LC already invested in reducing leaks from 40% to 25%.
Further investment expensive for relatively little increase in
supply. However leak fixing and LC reform will be key if
desal water is supplied through LC network. History of Taiz
water to date indicates that for various reasons leak
development exceeds leak fixing
Yrs met
000
m3/day demand
1
<1
0.5
additional
over 3
above
<1
1
additional
over 3
above
<1
<1
additional
over 3
above
<1
Options being proposed
• New well drilling further into the hinterland, but
– Would need to be enforced by military zones
– Limited water anyway, already used in agriculture
• Relocate city to the coast, but
– Lack of infrastructure and services are major
constraints on new business
– Water vs energy trade-off at domestic level
– Limitations to ground water (saline intrusion)
• Desalinated water
– Cost of desalination + cost of pumping
21
Greater Taiz Survey 2013
Key Results
22
Greater Taiz income distribution
x
Total no of households
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
Total no of households
15,000
10,000
5,000
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
Taiz population
now c. 800,000, growing at 3-4%pa in older areas, c.7% in outer suburbs
23
% Income spent on water by income band
• Poorest households spend a lot higher proportion of
household income than richer households
– Band I is spending some 20% of household income on water
– Middle income bands (III and IV) around 10%
– Highest bands (VI and VII) only around 3 to 4%
• Kawther use is relatively constant across the bands
– As you’d expect for essential drinking water for which it is difficult to
economise
– For lower bands this accounts for around half of water expenditure
• Expenditure on LC water declines from some 3% for lowest
bands to around 1% for highest bands
• Water use per capita (litres per capita per day) highly
constrained in poorest band
– with high income groups using close to twice this amount
24
Affordability of New Water
25
The three components of desalination costs and
hence consumer price (indicative figures only)
Taiz
A. Desal plant
c.$1.25 - $2.0/m3
Mokha
B. Transmission
c.90¢ - $1.5/m3,
assuming capital
costs by grant
C. City distribution
c. $0.4 to$1.5/m3, depending
on pipe or tanker, (assuming
numerous quick filling stations
near to population)
A. Desal cost at the plant on the coast at Mokha. Depends critically on cost of
energy, and water volumes supplied
B. Pumping costs to Taiz reservoirs at c.1100-1400m. Depends on nature of
capital financing for pipeline and pumps, and energy costs (coal vs HFO vs
Diesel, subsidies)
C.
Urban distribution costs. Depend critically on method of distribution.
Tankers are considerably more expensive than piped water, with fuel (and
length of trip) critical to costs.
Affordability of new water – poorest households as
the main beneficiaries
• Using the prices generated by our consumer price modelling
(with assumptions on capital grants and energy costs)
– $2.3/m3 for LC water with mixing
– $3.9/m3 new clean water wyatts
– $3.7/m3 private networks
• Those able to benefit from LC water would benefit from desal
(assuming mix with best of existing supplies means drinkable
water), except top band
• Those using only the new water wyatts, the poorest would
benefit, middle bands would be spending largely the same as
now, the top two bands about a quarter more rather more
• Those using private networks, the poorest would benefit,
middle bands would be spending largely the same as now, the
top two bands about 15% more
27
Distribution options for desalinated water in Taiz:
A Revitalised Utility
Tanker Franchises
Private / Community Network Franchises
Mitigating distribution risks in Greater Taiz:
Franchising Tankers – Phase I
The initial step of franchising is to move from the existing informal poor quality
System (above), to a trained and quality monitored approach for the distribution of
the potable and relatively expensive New Water. This could build for example on the
present ‘kawther’ water provision(below), which operate to a higher standard than
tankers distributing untreated water.
29
Mitigating distribution risks in Greater Taiz
Franchising local networks – Phase II
Tankered water supply
Piped water supply
As soon as possible, commencement of pipe network to nearest houses with
continuing tankering to more distant housing
30
• Existing community
network
• Expanding but now a dry
borehole so no additional
water resources
• “Yes, 600YR, yes
800 if that is the
cost – it is
cheaper than
the tankers”
31
Mitigating risks for the lowest income
communities
• Prepaid Meters
32
Beyond Taiz: addressing the needs of:
Pipeline communities
Nearby towns
Nearby agricultural settlements
34
Secure water for Pipeline Communities
• Following concerns from donors that the pipeline could
become a point of vulnerability
• One solution is to ensure that pipeline communities explicitly
benefit from the overall project
• But providing desal water makes little sense for communities
that have relatively plentiful good quality water at low cost
• What they don’t always have is a local project that can deliver
piped water into the home
• The JFA study has now identified a number of such projects
• The proposal is that they should be financed and
implemented as part of the transition phase preparing Taiz,
other nearby towns in need of water (such as Al-Qaida) for
new water
35
Groundwater
Protection
Zone
Indicative location of recently
Completed 8 lane outer ring-road
Potential route of pipeline to Ibb ?
Groundwater
Protection
Zone
Franchisee
Distributor
Franchisee
Distributor
Franchisee
Distributor
Groundwater
Protection
Zone
Franchisee
Distributor
Franchisee
Distributor
Groundwater
Protection
Zone
Groundwater
Protection
Zone
Groundwater Protection Zones
to include the entirety of the city and its environs
36
Groundwater protection around Taiz
•
•
To ensure the viability of new water franchisees
To protect the public health of the people
– Protect consumers from shallow abstraction of polluted water
•
To allow increased sewage flow to recharge areas
– And later potentially treatment and re-use
But also
• To support the sustainability of the hinterland for
agriculture (and thereby mitigate the conflicts)
– Protect surrounding areas which are currently heavily overabstracted
– Potential enforcement supported by local water user groups
– Note encouraging evidence of local cooperation in defence of
groundwater protection
37
Backup slides
38
Links to ‘Future of Yemen’ Themes
• Role of the state and private sector
– Regulatory framework (‘top down in support of bottom up’)
– Reforming parastatal institutions
– Some issues can be addressed without a fully functioning and effective state:
Yemeni enterprise and investment, community initiatives, SME solutions
• Water and the local economy
– Industrialisation, economic diversification
– Urbanisation and future jobs, potential growth areas
• Conflict, stability and security
– City vs hinterland conflicts; Pipeline protection; ‘Two dry years’; fuel subsidies
and the price of (non-utility) water
• Innovation opportunities
• Population shift to the coast
• Aid (grants / concessionary loans) vs Private sector investment
– Saudi support in context of regional politics
– Extent of Yemeni contributions within investment (public and private) + aid mix
• Yemen may be an ‘extreme’ case but is by no means alone
39 – Lessons from elsewhere and for elsewhere
“The Population's Habit is to Grow
In every Region where the Water's low”
A P Herbert (1890-1971), legal reformer and humourist
“Taiz is globally the iconic water scarce big city: too little water,
too high, growing too fast, with insufficient tax-revenues.
Yemen’s national and local governments are too poor to mobilise the
mitigating solutions installed by much bigger and even less well waterendowed cities at sea level, such as the rich cities in the Gulf or
Singapore. But with international goodwill, tapping into the major funds
already committed, new water can be delivered even at this altitude at an
affordable price while helping kick-start a faltering local economy.”
Prof Tony Allan (King’s College / SOAS London), Winner of Stockholm Water Prize and
developer of the term Virtual Water)
40
41
A new vision for Taiz
“Taiz has been suffering from terrible water scarcity for far too long, and
must now put in place the steps to break free from past constraints,
transform our future and build the new Taiz as a model for Yemen
Our Vision is to bring plentiful new clean water to Taiz available
throughout the city at affordable rates
We will achieve our vision by bringing modern technology, including
seawater desalination and other water sources, to keep consumer prices
as low as can be achieved while ensuring long term sustainability of
supply
We believe this aim is of prime importance to the future of our city – for
the wellbeing of its citizens, for their health and education, as well as for
business, employment and a vigorous local economy”
42
Shawki Ahmed Hayel, Governor of Taiz, April 2013
Pathways of economic effects of better quality,
cheaper, water in Taiz Cheaper,
(Dr C. Coles, JFA)
Household income
and expenditure
higher
quality
water
Savings to
household
budget leads to
greater
consumer
demand
Reduced
production &
processing costs
Reduced
disease
Competitiveness
Health
Greater
employment,
incomes &
tourism
Increased
competitiveness
Higher
productivity
Industrial
growth
Greater market
share
Transition Issues
and
New Water Demand Projections
44
Transition issues, management of change
•
Demand projections (city, industry and other communities served)
–
•
Estimate total of 25mld after initial settling in period, rising to 56mld 10 years
later
Potential step change for the utility and motivation for reform
–
–
•
Delivering potable water (mix with better existing supplies) + more water + more
frequently
Trigger of first major grant for the desalination project and agreement to
construct the plant
Length of transition
–
–
•
10 years with significant hardware and software inputs
Will take time for society to settle (say 80% in 5 years)
Public acceptance of price and perceptions
–
–
•
Especially re public piped water vs private operators
Awareness campaigns
Key role of leadership and vision
–
–
45
Effective and continuous communication
Carrots, sticks and sermons
TWSLC Transformation (1) x
‘Software’ measures could include:
• TWSLC senior management to map a ‘100 days improvement strategy’
– which would mobilise their staff, and reward them, in an appropriate manner
• Dialogue sessions with stakeholders
– Local professionals / opinion formers
– Awareness raising component to the house to house / industry data collection
• Governor’s communications strategy, Raising the game
– Aspiration of a world class city, brought back from the brink; rebranding of Taiz
• Mobilisation population in support of leak detection / bill collection teams
• Press / poster campaign for raising awareness
• Bill paying
– Underlining the point that taking water illegally, bribing the water meter reader etc is
taking from the community as a whole; supporting good governance
• Exchange visits for city leadership and water utility leadership to
successful cities elsewhere
– National Water and Sewerage Corporation, Uganda
– Phnom Penh Water and Sewerage Authority
46
TWSLC Transformation (2) x
‘Hardware’ technical measures could include
• Enhanced leak detection equipment
– Electronic leak noise correlators for example if not already
available/functioning
• Enhanced leak detection vehicles
– with necessary equipment to deliver both a rapid response mechanism
and visibility in undertaking that service
– with newly branded vehicles similar to ‘emergency services’
(fire/ambulance etc) to demonstrate and highlight the renewed approach
• Guaranteed availability of spares for pipes and pipe fittings
and collars for leak repairs and pumping stations
• ‘Waterwise’ tap and shower fittings plus timers
– to communicate the need to conserve water use
• ‘Smart meters’ at critical locations
– for the utility to measure distribution performance
– and be able to communicate this more directly with consumers
47
‘Smart’ Transformation: the role of innovative
technology and leap-frogging
Smart Payment
Mixed technology
Smart Meters
48
Transformed supply: the case of Algiers (2006-2011)
wastewater
Indicative location of recently
Completed 8 lane outer ring-road
Franchisee
Distributor
Franchisee
Distributor
Franchisee
Distributor
Franchisee
Distributor
Franchisee
Distributor
Distributing water in Greater Taiz
The newly developing service areas of Greater Taiz should be served by ‘New
Water Franchisees’, firstly by tanker, subsequently by pipe network when the
demand/ housing density justifies that investment.
50
• Rapid bulk filling
stations
• ‘Smart’ metered
• Sited to
minimise
journey times
and carbon
cost
Franchise operations Phase I - tankered
Tankered water supply
52
Links to ‘Future of Yemen’ Themes (Discussion Points)
• Aid (grants / concessionary loans) vs Private sector investment
– Now 2nd on Yemeni priority list. Saudi support in context of regional politics
– Extent of Yemeni contributions within investment (public and private) + aid mix
• Impact on consumer price and ease of transition
• Role of the state and private sector
– Regulatory framework (‘top down in support of bottom up’)
– Can Mokha - Taiz desal be constructed / operationalised without a fully
functioning and effective central state apparatus in Sana’a
• Local security
• Yemeni enterprise and investment, community initiatives, SME solutions
• Water and the local economy
– Industrialisation, economic diversification and further import substitution
– Urbanisation and future jobs, potential growth areas
• Conflict, stability and security
– City vs hinterland conflicts; Pipeline protection; ‘Two dry years’
– Fuel subsidies and the price of (non-utility) water (tanker prices already up
further 20% in Taiz)
53
End of presentation slides
For further details on JFA’s work in Yemen contact
James Firebrace
[email protected]
Office: +44 1473 735430
International Mobile: +44 7866 495523
Yemen: +967 713 149 741
54