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Community-Based Market
Monitoring and Trade Analysis
(MMTA) in Darfur
Youssif El Tayeb
Outline
• Background: the importance of trade and purpose of
market monitoring
• The MMTA project: approach and methodology
• Examples of findings from DDRA’s market monitoring
• In-depth studies by Tufts/ DDRA of the impact of conflict
on the livestock, cash crop and cereal trade in Darfur
• Emerging economic opportunities
• Opportunities for peace-building?
• Challenges and plans for the future
Why is it important to understand
trade
in
Darfur?
• Trade – the ‘lifeblood’ of Darfur’s economy and of livelihoods
• includes long-distance trade, and trade within Darfur
• Trade – a key point of connection between different livelihood groups, and
an important factor in building social ties
• National significance of Darfur’s livestock and cash crop economy:
• Darfur accounts for estimated ¼ to 1/3 of Sudan’s livestock resources postsecession
• Darfur produces around 1/3 of the national groundnut harvest (very little
exported)
• Lack of knowledge and information of
how trade & markets affected during
the conflict: yet importance of
understanding the wider economy/
the bigger picture in a protracted crisis
to inform policy and programming
What are we trying to achieve?
• To deepen analysis and understanding of the shifting patterns
of trade and markets in Darfur on an ongoing basis for key
agricultural and livestock commodities, in order to:
• inform and influence programming to support livelihoods
• identify opportunities for peace-building through trade
• prepare for the eventual recovery of Darfur’s economy, for which trade
will be a crucial engine
• DDRA, in partnership with Tufts, tracking how trade has been
impacted by the conflict and by other factors, through:
• Ongoing market monitoring by DDRA, in 3 Darfur states. Soon to be
expanded to 5 Darfur states
• Periodic in-depth studies: livestock, cash crops (groundnuts, sesame, gum
arabic, tombac and oranges), vegetables, and cereals
What are our methods?
Methodology: designed in partnership with Tufts/ FIC:
• Weekly market monitoring by CBOs in 37 markets across 3 Darfur
states:
• in North Darfur since early 2011 – 15 markets
• in West Darfur since early 2012 – 12 markets
• in Central Darfur since early 2013 – 10 markets
NB later in 2014, will cover South and East Darfur
• Collecting both quantitative data (eg prices, transport costs) and
qualitative data (eg changing trade routes, sources of supply)
• Collective quarterly analysis workshops in each state, involving all
CBO enumerators
• Production and dissemination of:
• Quarterly headlines – one page, shortly after analysis workshops
• Quarterly bulletins for each state
• Supplemented with one-off in-depth trade studies
• Dissemination activities, at locality, state and federal level
Darfur Markets at a glance
Vegetable Market – Kutum,
ND
Cereal Market - Kerainik, WD
Unique features of the
approach
• Access to markets through CBOs, that is often difficult/
impossible for international agencies
• Access to local knowledge through CBO enumerators
• Relationship between DDRA and state-level authorities, which
enhances influencing opportunities
• Partnership between national NGO (DDRA) and Tufts
University which provides technical advisory support and
quality control, supported by international NGO (SOS Sahel
International UK):
• facilitates dissemination at all levels
• Building the capacity of DDRA and the CBOs is central to the
approach, and key to building a cost-effective and sustainable
monitoring system
Capacity-building of CBO
enumerators
ND enumerators
WD enumerators
Examples of our findings: the
current situation
• Cereal prices at a record high due to poor 2013/14 harvest –
see graph on next slide
• Impact of recent insecurity in North Darfur:
• Millet prices rose by 40% in El Lait between February and May
2014
• Major disruption to trade routes out of Saraf Omra, a major
source of supply of cereals to many towns in Darfur
• Dramatic increase in dried okra prices: prices in North Darfur
400 to 600% higher in May 2014 compared with June 2013
• Extreme price hikes in basic staples putting pressure on
household food security
Impact of poor harvest (2013/14) on
cereal prices in El Fasher
•
Other examples of our findings: impact of insecurity
in neighbouring countries on export trade in camels
• Tracking the camel trade from North Darfur and the impact of
the Libya conflict:
• Early 2011: slump in trade, then recovered
• 2013: decline in trade with insecurity
6000
Price of Camel Export in Saraf Omra market , February 2011 to May 2012
5000
4000
3000
Price per a head in SDG
2000
1000
0
Februar March
y 2011 2011
Prices
1583
1583
April
2011
May
2011
June
2011
July
2011
August
2011
1674
1584
1638
1831
2575
Septem
Decemb
Otober Novemb
January Februar March
be
ber
2011 er 2011
2012 y 2012 2012
r2011
2011
1941
2050
1950
3800
3525
3625
3700
April
2012
May
2012
4725
4925
Other examples of our findings: impact of
wider conflict on the tombac trade
• Tombac economy in North Darfur affected by wider conflict in
Sudan
Price of Dry Tombac in El Fashir Market, June 2011 to May 2012
800
Prices per Guntar in SDG
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Prices
June 2011
July 2011
August
2011
September
2011
October
2011
371
400
494
668
730
November December
2011
2011
638
490
January
2012
February
2012
March
2012
563
513
475
April 2012 May 2012
440
358
How DRA market monitoring has
been used
• Active and effective information dissemination in El Fasher, El
Geneina and Zalingei for government programme managers
and decision makers
• Examples of how the analysis has been used:
• In 2012 to trigger a response to acute food insecurity
• By government: strategic grain reserve distribution in many locations
in North Darfur
• By WFP: free food distribution in key food insecure locationsin North
Darfur brought forward to May 2012 from June/ July 2012
• In the absence of government data collection, ‘unofficial’ use of
DRA data at state level
Findings from in-depth livestock trade
study: the impact of conflict
INCREASING RISK
•Early on:
• looting of livestock and distress sales: livestock a liability
• many livestock traders left the business: bankruptcy or switching to less
risky trade eg groundnut trade
•Shift in market activity from insecure secondary markets
to more secure markets:
• eg Seraf Omra – now centre of
camel trade in N Darfur
•Overall contraction in the livestock
trade – of 40 to 50%?
•Deteriorating quality of livestock
How have trade routes and trekking
‘on the hoof’ changed?
BUT ALSO RESILIENCE
• Indirect and circuitous trade routes replacing direct routes because of
insecurity
• eg Geneina to Omdurman, used to take
45 to 60 days, can now take up to four months
• Reducing the number of animals moving in
one herd to reduce risks
• Employing armed guards to protect the herd
• All adaptations have increased
transport costs
In-depth trade studies (livestock, cash
crops & cereals) reveal common trends
during a decade of conflict
• Impact of urbanisation and high transport costs -> shift from
long-distance trade to meeting demand within Darfur’s urban
areas eg sheep trade, trade in groundnuts and groundnut oil
• High levels of taxation, levies and fees
• Deteriorating quality (eg livestock, groundnuts)
• Yet economic opportunities associated with shifting
settlement pattern
Examples of economic opportunities related to
cash crops: a new market for groundnut byproducts
• Consequence of urbanisation:
• Groundnut cake: for livestock and poultry fodder:
• rise in price in Nyala of 300% during last 10 years
• Groundnut leaves for fodder
• Groundnut shells: for poultry
feed, in brick-making & as fuel
• rise in price in Nyala of 800%
during last 10 years
Economic opportunities: livestock-related
• An emerging meat industry within Darfur:
• a consequence of rapid urbanisation during the conflict years
• growing demand for meat, rising prices to Khartoum levels
• BUT Darfur has only one abattoir, functioning
intermittently in Nyala…
• Trade in hides & skins:
• increased during the conflict years, esp to West Afrcia
• rapidly rising prices in last 5 years
Economic opportunities: processing of
fresh vegetables
• Price difference for fresh tomatoes can be 1000% between the
production season and off-season, and 500% for onions,
negatively affecting producers and consumers
• Seasonality of availability and price could be addressed
through:
• improvement of storage facilities
(eg cold stores)
• investment in agro-processing
eg canning tomatoes, making paste,
drying onions
Building bridges through trade
• Examples of increased local cooperation to maintain
trade eg camels from Seraf Omra to Libya and to Egypt
• Surprisingly, thriving orange trade
from Jebel Marra across conflict lines:
• trade agreements to maintain
livelihood strategies
• Opportunities for peacebuilding?
Challenges and future of the
project
Challenges
• Dynamic and unpredictable nature of the conflict, impacts on
the project as well as on markets
• Expanding into new states: can take time
• Capacity development is a long-term process: requires longterm commitment
Future plans and opportunities
• In the long-term, to institutionalise the project within Darfur,
to inform and support state-level planning
• Continued involvement of local communities and local
organisations: best chance for project sustainability
• BUT needs international funding on an ongoing basis