Transcript Slide 1

CAMPROSA
8-11 November 2011
Theo Venter
Outline
1. On change
2. Mind sets
3. Globalization
4. Revolutions changing the Higher
Education environment
5. Sensemaking
The dynamics of change
Inevitable change
Uncertain
change
Mechanistic change
• Understanding the
dynamics of change
• Having the environment
under control
• Predictability
• Stability
Where we are going
Where we are now
Organismic change
• Change more complex - only the
parameters of change knowable
• System in dynamic equilibrium
• Little control over external
environment
• Cyclical process
Where we are going
Where we are now
Paradigmatic change
• Very complex systems
• Periods of stability and
periods of chaos
• System in dynamic
disequilibrium
• Multiple outcomes
possible
Where we are now
Where are
we going?
Where are
we going?
Mind sets
Mind set’s
1. While many things change, most things remain
constant; avoid getting carried away with seeing
temporary trends as permanent changes.
2. The future is embedded in the present; The future
already exists: you only need to extrapolate from it.
3. Focus on the score of the game; Politicians and
newsmakers try to bend our perspectives away from
what's happening.
4. Understanding how powerful it is, not to have to be
right; massive failures follow those who blindly
follow a doctrine
John Naisbett, 2007, Mind Set!
Mind set’s
5. See the future as a picture puzzle; Don't rely on any
one source to answer the whole question.
6. Don’t go so far ahead of the parade that people
don’t know your in it; Don't project ahead of what
people can appreciate.
7. Resistance to change falls if benefits are real; It's
easy to overestimate resistance, in particular, to new
technology.
8. Things that we expect to happen, always happen
more slowly; Remember the forecasts of everyone
owning a car-plane in the 1950s?
John Naisbett, 2007, Mind Set!
Mind set’s
9. You don’t get results by solving problems, but
by exploiting opportunities; Breakthrough
change comes only when someone can exploit
an unusual opening.
10. Don’t add unless you subtract; Don't overload
people with perspectives and details.
11. Don’t forget the ecology of technology. Evaluate
technology in terms of the nontechnical
constraints.
John Naisbett, 2007, Mind Set!
Pictures of the future..
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Culture: A visual culture is taking over the world;
Videos, attractive designs, use of colour, and visual
imagery are replacing the written word as a key
influence.
Economy: From nation-states to economic domains;
Industries are organizing globally for supply,
distribution, and production rather than by nation.
China: The periphery is the centre; China's economic
growth will continue, to be followed by political
freedom. The nation will become a global design and
branding base, rather than just a source of low-cost
production labour.
John Naisbett, 2007, Mind Set!
Pictures of the future..
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Europe: Mutually assured decline; Europe will
experience slow growth, burdened with belowreplacement birth rates, tough policies against
immigration, and high social welfare costs.
Our evolutionary era: Reservoir of innovation. The
importance of new technologies will slow down while
the application of technologies developed in recent
years will accelerate. Biotechnology and
nanotechnology are immensely slow methods of
invention. Generally, technology takes forever to move
into mainstream application.
John Naisbett, 2007, Mind Set!
Global Challenges
The global dynamics of change
 Global demography 7bn people
 Environmental Crisis
 Food and Water Security
 Globalisation of the economic and
financial world
 ICT dominates the world
 Changing conflict patterns
 Greater focus on Governance
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Volatility
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Paradigm
shifts
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Discontinuities
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Uncertainty
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Complexity
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Obsolescence
Global challenges (WEF 2011)
Prioritised challenges
The most important trends shaping our
world out to the year 2030.
What effects will population growth,
migration and urbanization have on our
future world?
Source: CSIS
Context
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Over the next twenty years, the vast majority of the world's population
growth will occur in the developing world, in nations least capable of
supporting it politically, environmentally, or economically.
The developed world will face its own set of challenges, including
declining populations, rising aging segments, and changing migration
patterns.
When Columbus reached the New World, global population had
reached about 500 million.
By November 1, 2011, total population had increased to 7.0 billion - the
majority of this growth occurring between the end of the Second
World War and the present.
By 2025, global population will likely reach eight billion; and by 2050
there will be around 9.15 billion people on Earth.
The addition of some 2.4 billion people (7.0 billion to nearly 9.2 billion
from July 2009 to 2050) to the global family will strain economic and
social systems and put unprecedented pressure on the allocation of
scarce resources.
World population 1950-2050
Population growth rates by region
Developing Countries
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Eight countries are expected to account for the majority (52.3%) of the
world's population in 2050.
Seven of these countries (India, China, Pakistan, Nigeria, Indonesia,
Bangladesh, and Brazil) are from what we now call the developing
world.
Over the next twenty years, eighty percent of population growth will
occur in countries in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
The negative effects of disease only confound the numbers problem.
The HIV/AIDS pandemic has plucked working adults out of their prime,
leaving behind millions of orphaned children, and torn a hole in the
social fabric of these nations.
Countries in the Middle East and Africa also have extremely high
youth dependency ratios.
History alerts us to the dangers of a teeming youth population.
Countries that experience instability, terrorism, and violence often
have some of the youngest populations on the planet.
Population age composition (2009)
Migration and Urbanization
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People will move into urban centres in higher numbers in pursuit of
higher paying jobs and better access to services.
By 2050, nearly seventy percent of the world's population will live in
cities, representing an influx of 3.1 billion people over the next forty
years.
While urbanization presents an opportunity for rural workers to
modernize their skills and improve their lives, if governments are unable
to support such growth, rampant urban poverty could result.
Migration from the countryside may also threaten food security, as a
smaller number of farmers will be producing agricultural goods for a
larger number of urbanites incapable of growing their own food.
The poor will continue to immigrate to richer countries, though they may
do so in higher numbers as developed countries become more
desperate for working aged adults.
Urban population as % of total population
The most important trends shaping our
world out to the year 2030.
What changes will we see in food, water &
energy consumption/production?
Source: CSIS
Food
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The world is nearing a point of diminishing returns. Poor land
management and the overuse of fertilizers are causing land degradation,
soil erosion, and desertification on a massive scale in agricultural areas
from the Amazon to the Yangtze.
Degradation, on top of sharp increases in food prices over the past
decade, has left many in the developing world without the land to grow
their own food or the means to purchase it at market.
The dual forces of rising oil prices and increased production of biofuels
have exacerbated this problem by increasing the supply-side cost to
farmers, in addition to diverting staple crops away from kitchen tables.
Water availability—agricultural use accounts for 70% of freshwater
withdrawals—as well as biotechnology will play key roles in our ability
to expand food production.
Food demand is projected to grow 70-90% by 2050.
Water
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What is now a global water challenge will soon become a global water
crisis.
Almost four billion people will live in areas of high water stress by
2030 if governments and individuals do not change their habits and
use this finite resource more responsibly.
Currently, over 880 million people, or one out of every eight
individuals, live without safe or reliable access to water.
Inadequate access to water is linked to malnutrition,
underdevelopment, and geopolitical instability.
The scarcity problem is only compounded by the predicted rise of the
rest—developing nations like China and India—and their growing
appetites for consumption.
The affluent use upwards of 2500 litres of water per day, for their
personal use and in the production of the products they buy, when
only 50 litres per person are required for survival.
Future water shortages could significantly hinder economic
development and precipitate serious conflicts across the world.
Energy
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Volatile oil prices and supply disruptions have led to international
spats verging on geopolitical crises in recent years.
World energy demand is anticipated to grow by 45% by 2030.
By that time, fossil fuels will account for 80% of our energy
consumption.
Modest progress made in terms of renewable energy.
Aggregate increases in alternative sources of energy will be offset by
high consumption of coal, oil, and natural gas driven by the
astronomical rise of China and India.
Together, these two countries will be responsible for over half of the
increase in energy demand by 2050.
Governments and private companies across the world are pouring
money into energy development projects in order to keep up with
domestic demand and to capitalize on burgeoning industries.
The most important trends shaping our
world out to the year 2030.
How does the vast amount of data
change how we learn and govern in
the future?
Source: CSIS
Context
 Wireless laptops, media players, and cell phones are just a few
examples of how technology has become an integral part of our
everyday lives.
 An astounding 464 million cell phone subscribers live in China.
 As materials become smaller, lighter, and less expensive and
platforms more user-friendly, computers will become even
greater fixtures of our daily lives.
 Our world is defined more than ever before by its information
economy.
 Communication technologies are fuelling this evolution by
spreading new ideas and innovations to even greater numbers
of people each day.
 As information technology continues to reach these
individuals, they will be able to compete more directly with
those in the developed world.
Ideas
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We are witnessing the growth of the "weightless economy"—an
economy in which knowledge and technical capacity are contributing
an ever greater share to GDP.
Historically, GDP was inextricably tied to manufacturing, however,
developed countries today are witnessing the contraction of their
manufacturing sector at the same time that their GDP is expanding.
The reason for this apparent contradiction is that ideas are
increasingly becoming commodities in and of themselves.
The ability to use the Internet and networking tools, a receptiveness to
customer demands and new ideas, and all around creativity.
The "knowledge-based" economy is also turning traditional economic
and legal models on their heads.
While the Internet has lowered the barriers for well-meaning
entrepreneurs around the globe to enter the market, it has also
enabled more nefarious behaviour ranging from piracy to cyberwarfare.
It is estimated that up to 95% of music downloads are made illegally.
Connectivity
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Communication technologies are decentralizing information, allowing
individuals and companies on opposite sides of the planet to collaborate
and share ideas.
As Thomas Friedman put it, "thirty years ago, if you had a choice of
being born a B student in Boston or a genius in Bangalore, you probably
would have chosen Boston.
Thirty years ago it was unlikely that anyone in the developing world, even
a genius, could overcome poverty and rise to prominence in the West.
Nowadays, according to Friedman, "anyone with smartphone, access to
Google, and a cheap wireless laptop can join the innovation fray.“
As information technologies reach these workers, they will be able to
compete more directly with those in the developed world.
Unfortunately greater connectivity also exposes organizations,
governments, and citizens to the risks of fraud and even terrorism.
We have yet to see how democratic governments will regulate this new
online environment to insure national security and protect freedom of
expression.
Lifelong Learning
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It is estimated that young people currently entering the workforce
will experience ten to fourteen major career changes in their
professional lives.
As the information economy takes root, workers will be required to
refine their skills and learn new ones to remain competitive.
In short, they must become life-long learners.
Workers will acquire new skills at cyber-universities through
distance-learning courses tailored to meet their individual needs.
Today, only a minority of the population enjoys access to higher
education with less than a third of Americans over twenty-five
holding bachelors degrees.
Even though matriculation and graduation rates have improved
over the past few decades, colleges and universities will need to
embrace new technologies and promote vocational training to meet
the economic needs and to keep workforce competitive.
The Arabian Spring: an e-Revolution?
Tunisia was fertile ground for an internet-enabled uprising. Despite a well educated
population
(with aSpring...
median age of 24), the country had not created enough jobs for
The Arabian
the vast number of young people obtaining secondary and college degrees.
Tunisia’s
10 million
residents
and two million expatriate citizens are avid users of
Political
change
in:
technology, however: 85% of the population has cell phones (5% smart phones),
and roughly two million of them are on Facebook. At the time of the Revolution
Egypt;
Twitter had a far smaller footprint, with perhaps 500 active users within the country’s
Tunisia:
borders,
but who was tweeting mattered more than how many people were doing it.
Yemen:
Syria;
Jordan:
Actually,
the events in December and January were preceded by a spontaneous
campaign
against government repression in May of 2010, in which people reacted
Libya and
to Sudan.
an opposition leader’s attempt to start a protest march by posting supportive
photographs on Facebook. But the Revolution really began in mid-December, as
civil
unrestArabia
broke out in the interior of the country after a young street vendor named
Saudi
Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire — to protest mistreatment by a government
the ultimate prize?
functionary, but also likely as a deep expression of helplessness in the face of a
lack of opportunity.
e-Revolution: Rules of politics on the net
1. Think about the ends before you think about the means;
2. Brilliance almost always takes second place to
persistence;
3. Showing you’re right matters more than knowing you’re
right;
4. Look at every channel, but go where your audience is;
5. Content is key;
6. Integrate, integrate, integrate;
7. The tools don’t care who uses them; and
8. Selling an idea is very much like selling soap. Knowing
when to break the rules is half the fun.
e-Revolution: Internet as a political tool
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Ease of use
Access
Speed.
Reach.
Interconnection.
During the tumult, vast African
populations were just bystanders. The
State and its paraphernalia – or rebel
militias – might descend on your district
every few years but, otherwise, things
went on as they had. There was a
single TV station to tell you what
happened, and the world went by. The
internet has changed all that.
This year, in most parts of Africa, statistically, there will be one mobile
phone per adult. In Kenya, that equates to 20 million mobile phones
where just ten years ago there were 15,000. It is an extraordinary curve
when you plot it. More Africans have a mobile phone than access to a
clean toilet (Aly-Khan Satchu, 2011) .
Internet Usage: June 2010
Internet Users
Tunisia
Morocco
Nigeria
World
Egypt
Algeria
Zimbabwe
Africa
South Africa
Kenya
Uganda
Zambia
Namibia
Botswana
Libya
Ghana
Angola
Lesotho
Cameroon
Tanzania
Congo, Dem. Rep.
3 600 000
10 442 500
43 982 200
1 966 514 816
17 060 000
4 700 000
1 422 000
110 931 700
5 300 000
3 995 500
3 200 000
816 700
127 500
120 000
353 900
1 297 000
607 400
76 800
750 000
676 000
365 000
User Growth (20002010)
3500.0
10342.5
21891.1
444.6
3691.1
9300.0
2744.0
2357.3
120.8
1897.8
7900.0
3983.5
325.0
700.0
3439.0
4223.3
1924.7
1820.0
3650.0
487.8
72900.0
Penetration
(% of Popu)
34.0
33.0
28.9
28.7
21.2
13.6
12.2
10.9
10.8
10.0
9.6
6.8
6.0
5.9
5.5
5.3
4.6
4.0
3.9
1.6
0.5
Source: Internet World Stats
Cellphone penetration in Africa
The most important trends shaping our
world out to the year 2030.
How is our economic landscape
changing?
Source: CSIS
General
 Despite the international debate surrounding economic
liberalization — one that is given fodder by the current global
recession - it is likely that by 2025 the world will be more
economically interdependent than it is today.
 The "BRIC(S)" countries—Brazil, Russia, India, and China (and
South Africa) —will increasingly become the world's major
economic players with respect to both production and
consumption.
The March of Globalization
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Globalization has forced the integration of emerging and developing
markets into the global economy and increased the flow of goods and
human capital through trade and investment.
The benefits of integration, to both developed and developing
countries have become clear in recent decades.
The Eurozone's GDP is now higher than that of the United States, a
development that has encouraged European nations to join the EU
and countries in other parts of the world to form competing trading
blocs.
The Southern African Development Community and the Eurasian
Economic Community serve as some notable examples.
Worldwide exports have increased dramatically- they now represent
30% of GDP, up from 17% in the 1970s.
International bank lending grew from $265 billion to $4.2 trillion over a
19 year period from 1975 to 1994.
People are even traveling more, with 846 million individuals trekking
internationally in 2006, a 7% increase from 1980.
The March of Globalization
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Despite any short-term hiccups, the global market, with the help of
new technologies and proactive financial institutions, is expanding to
include new groups of people each day.
The true effects of globalization are a mixed bag. Our world is split
largely between those who have benefitted from integration and those
who have not.
Concerns over national identity, heritage, and culture have come to
the fore as more people, resources, and ideas are exchanged across
borders.
In countries as diverse as Italy, South Africa, Indonesia, India, and
Turkey, restrictions on immigration enjoy the support of over 80% of
the population.
This can be viewed as a negative reaction to the effects of
globalization.
In this era of porous borders and complex information flows,
governments are becoming more aware of security threats and
strategic weaknesses..
BRIC(S) Economies
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If they can consolidate the conditions necessary for structural growth,
by 2025 the sum of the GDPs of the BRICS economies could equal half
the equivalent of the G-6 countries (United States, Japan, Germany,
United Kingdom, France, and Italy).
By 2040, assuming strong and sustained growth rates, they could
overtake the G-6 altogether.
China is leading in this race to the top because of its high levels of
foreign direct investment and double digit growth.
Furthermore, in spite of this tremendous progress, in 2050 per capita
income in China will still be around $30,000, roughly what it is today in
the West.
The divisions between the haves and have-nots in the BRICS
countries are stark, with millions of Indians, Chinese, Brazilians,
Russians and South Africans excluded from the benefits of economic
integration.
Eventually, resource scarcities, demographic shifts, price fluctuations,
and political strife may prevent some or all of these countries from
enjoying the prosperous future experts once predicted for them.
Poverty & Inequality
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Globalization has failed to pull the poorest out of poverty, while in other
parts of the world it has enabled the development of a middle class.
Disparities exist not only between countries but within them as well. The
fact remains that a staggering 2.8 billion people live on less than $2 a
day and the richest 10% of the population accounts for 55% of total
global income.
High levels of income inequality are bad for growth and are associated
with many of the negative side effects of globalization, including infant
mortality and illiteracy.
When citizens are starving it can threaten social stability.
At the same time, we are witnessing the expansion of the global
bourgeoisie. When countries plug into the international system, their
citizens are often able to attain better jobs with better pay.
In order to find these jobs, farmers move from small towns and villages
into bustling cities.
This bourgeoning middle class could be the driving force behind the
democratic movements of the future.
The most important trends shaping our
world out to the year 2030.
A new security paradigm?
Source: CSIS
Context
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The shift from interstate to intrastate war and the increasing capacity
of non-state actors to commit acts of mega-violence reflect how
patterns of conflict have changed since the end of the Cold War.
Today warfare is increasingly described as "asymmetric." Traditional
military powers, are confronted by increasingly atypical adversaries—
non-state ideologues, transnational criminal syndicates, and rogue
states—that employ unconventional tactics in wars ambiguous in both
place and time.
Today, conflict is more likely to occur between warring factions on
residential streets than between armies on battlefields.
As before, many belligerents still fight for power and/or wealth, but an
increasing number are fighting purely for ideology.
Acts of terrorism have become the major vehicle for their malcontent,
especially for well-organized and well-funded Islamic groups like alQaeda.
The proliferation of nuclear and biological technologies only ups the
ante for future incidences.
Terrorism and Transnational Crime
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Over the past few decades the size and scope of terrorists' abilities have
become truly alarming.
Terrorist organizations have evolved from scrappy bands of dissidents
into well-organized groups with vast human and capital resources.
This situation is forcing governments around the world to develop
strategies to both neutralize these groups where they operate and
maintain security at home.
These individuals, or groups of individuals, operate in poorly organized
cells and as such use internet technologies to spread their message and
share plans of attack.
Perhaps paradoxically, this disorganization and decentralization makes
these groups a greater threat to the military as it is harder to detect and
track them.
Terrorism has also had the effect of heightening tensions between
sovereign nations. After the Mumbai terrorist attacks of 2008, India and
Pakistan neared war after India accused Pakistan of harbouring
terrorists and Pakistan refused to turn over individuals for prosecution.
Force Transformation
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In the face of these new asymmetric threats, militaries around the
world will be forced to adapt to keep pace with the challenges posed
by non-state actors.
In 2008, the US Army admitted that the enemy had changed and that it
was unlikely to change back.
Armed forces needs to prepare for the full spectrum of military
engagements, meaning that the military must grow accustomed to
modern, unconventional warfare.
Military leaders will need to put more emphasis on officer
development and education to better prepare soldiers for modern day
threats.
Today, a soldier capable of speaking the local language is often more
valuable than a soldier that can drive a tank.
All the while, the military must maintain its technological edge. The
proliferation of cheap but sophisticated military technologies to
enemy combatants is making this more difficult. The military will need
to develop new technologies that are not only deadly but precise and
adaptable to different theatre's.
The most important trends shaping our
world out to the year 2030.
The Future of Global Governance
Source: CSIS
Context
We have entered a new period in governance—from the
Westphalian nation-state system, we now live in a world
where true power lies beyond the hands of traditional
government. The previous revolutions will test the mettle of
our leaders as they seek innovative solutions to address
these myriad problems. Strategic coalitions consisting of
governments, corporations, NGOs, and academic
institutions will need to be stood up in order to mount an
effective response and to capitalize on important
opportunities.
Corporate Citizenship
 Corporate citizenship expresses the conviction that companies not only
must be engaged with their stakeholders but are themselves
stakeholders alongside governments and civil society.
 In 2008, the revenue of the largest private company, ExxonMobil,
made it the twenty sixth largest economic entity in the world, right
behind South Africa.
 With such massive profits, consumers will to look to the private sector
to remedy many of the world's ills.
 However, at the end of the day, most CEOs are more concerned with
the bottom line than they are with shaping public discourse and it is
unlikely that private companies would be involved in this work if it
proved unprofitable.
 The financial crisis is forcing businesses to re-evaluate their practices,
and in the end they may find that the most profitable strategy is also
the most socially sustainable.
Civil Society
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With the decentralization of capital, technology, and information, civil
society organizations (CSOs) and non-governmental organizations
(NGOs) have become important actors, filling gaps in the provision of
social services, encouraging participation in local and national
politics.
Each of the revolutions will affect civil society the world over, some
negatively, some positively. For instance, communication technology
may encourage individuals to disengage from formal politics.
Meanwhile, immigration may fundamentally alter the cultural and
religious makeup of political constituencies and force politicians to
reformulate their platforms.
Some governments, confronted by terrorist threats, may implement
new security measures that infringe on civil liberties.
In failed states, like Somalia, where neither the government nor civil
society organizations can provide for citizens, people have come to
rely on international aid organizations for their most basic needs.
Corruption
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Corruption erodes public confidence in government institutions and
encourages individuals to act outside their purview.
The continuing high levels of corruption and poverty plaguing many of
the world's societies amount to an on-going humanitarian disaster.
Corruption, including bribery, fraud, and extortion, in low-income
societies keeps people in poverty by dramatically increasing the cost
of providing them with public services.
It is estimated that unchecked levels of corruption would add $50
billion to the cost of achieving the Millennium Development Goals for
water and sanitation alone.
This is equal to half the total amount of foreign assistance paid in one
year.
Corruption does not just affect the developing world, however, and
causes excessive waste even in more advanced countries.
For example, notoriously bad corruption has created stark income
inequalities in Russia
The Millennium Development Goals
1.
Eradication of poverty and malnutrition.
2.
Universal primary education.
3.
Promote gender equality and empower women.
4.
Reduce child mortality.
5.
Enhance the health of pregnant women.
6.
Fight HIV/AIDS, malaria and other illnesses (TB).
7.
Ensure a sustainable environment.
8.
Develop global development partnerships.
The 8 MDG are measured in 21 outcomes through 60 indicators.
The United Nations Millennium Declaration, signed in September 2000
Mega communities
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Dynamic, innovative and strategic partnerships between governments,
civil society, the private sector, and international institutions will be
necessary to address the many challenges ahead.
National governments are no longer the most powerful actors, nor do
traditional international governing institutions hold the clout they once
did.
Likewise, organizations like the UN and NATO are becoming overly
bureaucratic and ineffective and may face extinction if they are unable
to modernize as well.
Recent pledges to expand the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) war
chest may hint at an expanded role for that organization.
International partnerships, like the G8 and, perhaps more importantly,
the G20 should not be overlooked
The problems we face today result from our interdependence. In an
increasingly integrated world, seeing the big picture requires a
daunting breadth and depth of knowledge. Those leaders able to
bridge these gaps will enable the innovative partnerships we need to
build a better future.
Sensemaking
Africa’s “infrastructure deficit”
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


Only 1 in 3 rural Africans has access to an all-season road
Only 5% of Africa’s farmland is irrigated
Only 1 in 4 Africans has access to electricity
Only 5% of Africa’s hydropower has been tapped
30 African countries experience chronic power shortages
Firms pay $0.40 per kilowatt hour for back-up generators
High transportation costs increase prices of goods by 75%
Red tape slows freight movement to less than 10 km an hour
30% of African infrastructure needs rehabilitation
Africa is unlikely to achieve the Millennium Development Goals for
water and sanitation
 Poor infrastructure cuts Africa’s GDP by 2% every year and reduces
business productivity by 40%
Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
Zambia
Mozambique
Tanzania
Angola
Uganda
Kenya
Democratic Republic of Congo
Nigeria
Ghana
Côte d'Ivoire
Botswana
Malawi
Senegal
Zimbabwe
Lesotho
Namibia
Mauritius
South Africa
Swaziland
Source: IMF WEO, Apr & Jun 11
2012-2016
7.7
7.7
7.2
7.1
6.9
6.7
6.4
6.2
6.1
6.0
5.5
5.3
5.2
5.1
4.7
4.4
4.4
4.4
2.3
Global Competition Index 2010-2011
The leader in Africa (2011)?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
Public Institutions:
Infra-structure:
Macro-economic environment:
Primary health & education:
Higher Education:
Market en products:
Labour market efficiency:
Financial market efficiency:
Technological preparedness:
Market size:
Business sophistication:
Innovation:
* Arabian Spring Revolutions
Rwanda (19/139)
Tunisië (46/139)*
Libië (7/139)*
Tunisië (31/139)*
Tunisië (30/139)*
Mauritius (31/139)
Rwanda (9/139)
Suid-Afrika (9/139)
Tunisië (51/139)*
Suid-Afrika (25/139)
Suid-Afrika (38/139)
Tunisië (51/139)*
Problems doing business in Southern Africa
Sensemaking
1.
Our university campuses are the laboratories of the society.
2.
Vulnerabilities of developing government and developing democracies
are often the contours of conflict on campus.
3.
Diversity in society such as race, ethnicity, religion, language and political
persuasion must be carefully monitored.
4.
Socio-political and ideological issues will be reflected on our campuses
together with the emotion and disruption that goes with it.
5.
It is very important to be aware of those issues and trends and to know
the actors on campus and the university environment.
6.
Political progress and economic developments are more often than not
bumpy roads responsible for campus turmoil.
7.
Invest in understanding the electronic revolution, social media and
internet as the new way of communicating.
Thank you