Transcript [중국경제연보] 판매증진 마케팅방안

Economic Effects of Trade
Facilitation in APEC:
Policy Implications by Scenarios
2006. 3. 14
APEC International Symposium
Organized and Sponsored by
APEC
Chiba University, Japan
Sangkyom Kim
Senior Research Fellow, KIEP
University of Michigan
[email protected]
Busan Roadmap and Bogor Goal
 Evolving International Trade Environment
 Globalization accelerates the movement of goods,
services and capital flows in the region
 Deepening of trade and investment integration and
rapid spread of FTAs/RTAs require more focus on
behind the border issues
 Additional challenges posed by changing
international security environment
 Wide spread of ICT
Busan Roadmap and Bogor Goal
 Dynamic Nature of Bogor Goals
 APEC does not interpret the Bogor Goal in a finite
and static manner
• Behind the border issues, including customs procedures,
standard and conformance, business mobility and
ecommerce have become an important agenda
• APEC should recognize the evolving nature of trade
environment
 While recognizing that the Bogor Goals are
dynamic, our Leader’s commitment in 1994 must
be maintained
Busan Roadmap and Bogor Goal
 Trade Facilitation: Main Vehicle to Bogor
 Busan Business Agenda
• Build on the 2001 Shanghai target which is currently on
track to be met by 2006, by further cutting transaction
costs by another five percent by 2010 and identifying a
list of collective actions that all 21 APEC economies
will take to facilitate trade
Gains From Trade Facilitation
 Overall Gains from Trade Facilitation
 Supplement tariff reduction and results in increase
in world trade volume
 Reduce the opportunity cost of international
specialization
 Improve administrative efficiency and enhance
transparency
 Reduce transaction cost by automation and
paperless trading and etc.
Trade Facilitation: Korean Case
 Overview of Selected Achievement
 Customs Procedures
• Reduced clearance time 9.6 to 5.5 days
 Standard and Conformance
• 99.6% of Korean Industrial Standards are harmonized
with ISO or IEC standards
 Business Mobility
• API became effective in 2005
• Active participants of ABTC
 Trade Facilitation Action Plan
 Among 85 items committed, 39 measures under customs
procedures have been reported to be complemented
Economic Effects : Modalities
 Modalities
 Trade Facilitation Index
• APEC wide survey conducted in 2002 is utilized
• Trade facilitation index is constructed based on survey
 Scenarios
• Realistic and feasible scenarios are suggested
 CGE Analysis
• CGE model analysis, by scenario, is conducted to seek
most effective ways to achieving the Bogor Goal
Economic Effects: Scenario by Trade
Facilitation
 Scenario Number 1: Trade Facilitation
 50 percent increase in trade facilitation in the
following four areas;
•
•
•
•
Customs procedures
Standard and conformity
Business mobility
E-commerce
 Target date: developed (2010)/developing (2020)
Economic Effects: Scenarios by Tariff
Reduction
 Scenario Number 2: Tariff Reduction
 85.2 percent tariff reduction producing same
amount of transaction cost reduction generated by
50 percent increase in trade facilitation
 Target date: developed (2010)/developing (2020)
Economic Effects: Scenarios by Tariff
Reduction
Scenario Number 3: Tariff Reduction by Linear
 30 percent tariff reduction by linear cut
 Target date: developed (2010)/developing (2020)
Scenario Number 4: Tariff Reduction by Linear
 50 percent tariff reduction by linear cut for developed
 25 percent tariff reduction by linear cut for developing
 Target date: developed (2010)/developing (2010)
Economic Effects: Scenarios by Tariff
Reduction
Scenario Number 5: Tariff Reduction by Swiss
 a=16 for both developed and developing economies
 Target date: developed (2010)/developing (2020)
Scenario Number 6: Tariff Reduction by Swiss
 a=16 for developed economies
 a= 35 for developing economies
 Target date: developed (2010)/developing (2010)
Economic Effects: Scenarios by Trade
Facilitation and Swiss Formula
Scenario Number 7: Scenario 1 and 5
 50 percent increase in trade facilitation in the four
priority areas
 Tariff Reduction by Swiss Formula
• a=16 for both developed and developing economies
 Target date: developed (2010)/developing (2020)
Economic Effects: Scenarios by Trade
Facilitation and Swiss Formula
Scenario Number 8: Scenario 1 and 6
 50 percent increase in trade facilitation in the four
priority areas
 Tariff Reduction by Swiss Formula
• a=16 for developed economies
• A=35 for developing economies
 Target date: developed (2010)/developing (2010)
Scenarios: Types and Specific Measures
Scenario
Type
Specific Measures
Target Date
1
Trade Facilitation
- 50 percent increase in trade facilitation in the following four areas: Customs
procedures, Standard and conformity, Business mobility, E-commerce
Developed(2010)/developing(2020)
2
Tariff Reduction
- 85.2 percent (rate reducing same transaction cost by scenario 1) tariff reduction
Developed(2010)/developing(2020)
3
Tariff Reduction
by Linear Cut
- 30 percent tariff reduction by linear cut
Developed(2010)/developing(2020)
- 50 percent tariff reduction by linear cut developed economies
- 25 percent tariff reduction by linear cut for developing economies
Developed(2010)/developing(2010)
- a=16 for both developed and developing economies
Developed(2010)/developing(2020)
- a=16 for developed/a=35 for developing economies
Developed(2010)/developing(2010)
- Combination of Scenario number 1 and 5
Developed(2010)/developing(2020)
- Combination of Scenario number 1 and 6
Developed(2010)/developing(2010)
4
5
Tariff Reduction
by Swiss Formula
6
7
8
Trade
Facilitation/
Tariff Reduction
Economic Impacts by Scenarios:
Methodology
Model
 “Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was
employed to measure each strategy quantitatively
 Gravity model to construct “Trade Facilitation Index”
Data Set
 GTAB (Global Analysis Trade Project) Version 6
 Survey Data (APEC 2001)
Forecasting Outcome:
Economic Impacts by Scenarios
 Major Outcome of Simulation
 First, more than 85% of tariffs need to be reduced in order to achieve a
transaction cost reduction equivalent to a 50% increase in trade
facilitation.
 Second, trade liberalization through both trade facilitation and the
Swiss Formula will result in the greatest increases in GDP overall in the
APEC economies.
 Third, trade liberalization through the Swiss Formula surpassed the one
through a linear cut in terms of potential GDP increases.
 Fourth, all of our strategies indicate that developing economies,
especially those in Northeast Asia, will gain more profits through
promoting trade liberalization and trade facilitation than industrialized
economies.
Policy Implications
Policy Implication Number 1
 In terms of GDP and welfare growth, our
quantitative measurements suggest that trade
facilitation based on open regionalism and deeper
integration principles will result in more positive
effects in the APEC economies than tariff
reduction.
.
Policy Implications
 Policy Implications Number 2
 Provided that APEC member economies come to
an agreement on tariff reduction, concrete action
plans should include trade liberalization through
the Swiss Formula, which will bring greater
economic benefits than the one through a linear cut.
Policy Implications
 Policy Implications Number 3
 Our research outcome well supports the current
agreed timetable to achieving free trade and
investment in the APEC region, with the
industrialized economies by 2010, and the
developing economies by 2020.
Policy Implications
 Policy Implications Number 4
 As suggested before, trade liberalization and
facilitation efforts should be simultaneously
applied in order to effectively reach the Bogor
Goals.
Policy Implications

Policy Implications Number 5
 Our research outcome demonstrates that if
developing economy, i.e. Korea achieves free trade
and investment by 2010, the economy will
experience greater GDP increases