Transcript ภาพนิ่ง 1 - Palang Thai

Thailand’s experiences in
the power sector
Chuenchom Sangarasri Greacen
Chris Greacen, Ph.D.
Palang Thai
International Seminar on
Dams and Sustainable Energy
24 March 2005
Melia Hotel, Hanoi, Vietnam
Overview
• Energy consumption and economic development
• Thai government’s energy strategies
• Current practices and consequences of Thai power
sector planning
– Load growth forecast
– Power development plan (PDP)
– GMS Grid
• An alternative to the supply-driven power sector planning
• Thailand’s abundant clean energy opportunities
– 8% target
– Potential
– Examples
Thailand compared with Vietnam
Thailand
65 million
Population
GDP per capita
$7,400
(PPP)
GDP growth (2003 6.7%
est.)
GDP by sector
Electricity
consumption
Agriculture: 10%
Industry: 44%
Services: 46%
90 billion kWh
Vietnam
83 million
$2,500
7.2%
Agriculture: 22%
Industry: 40%
Services: 38%
28 billion kWh
Thailand’s power consumption growth
outstrips economic growth
Electric Power Generation per GDP
Canada
1,000
kWh/US$, 1995 Price
United States
900
United Kingdom
800
Germany
700
Taiwan
600
Singapore
500
Thailand
400
Australia
300
Malaysia
200
South Korea
100
Japan
1971
1973
1980
1985
1990
1995
1999
Peru
Thai government has set a target
for energy elasticity
1.0 (2008)
Ratio of GDP growth to electricity
demand growth in Thailand
Thailand
GDP
growth
Electricity Ratio of GDP
to power
consumption
demand
growth
growth
1992-2002 1.45 times 2.02 times
2003-2016 1.84 times 2.39 times
1.4
1.3
* Source : EGAT’s Power Development Plan 2003
** Source : Electricity Demand Forecast Report, January 2004
January 2004 Demand Forecast
Demand Growth
increase/year
MW
MW
%
Year
GDP (%)
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
6.5%
6.5%
6.5%
6.5%
6.4%
6.4%
6.6%
6.5%
6.5%
6.5%
6.4%
6.5%
6.4%
Average
(2547-2549)
6.5%
A
Avg. past 10 yrs
(2537-2546)
Avg. past 15 yrs
(2532-2546)
Avg. past 20 yrs
(2527-2546)
1,479
1,543
1,595
1,606
1,704
1,804
1,956
2,036
2,101
2,228
2,342
2,463
2,580
8.2
7.9
7.5
7.1
7.0
6.9
7.0
6.8
6.6
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.3
-
1,957
7.0
3.6%
-
839
6.6
5.6%
-
845
8.5
6.2%
-
767
9.1
c
t
19,600
21,143
22,738
24,344
26,048
27,852
29,808
31,844
33,945
36,173
38,515
40,978
43,558
u
a
% of
Villages
electrified
l
98% 
99%
89% 
99%
65% 
99%
Past peak demand projections tended to
over-estimate
55,000
50,000
Jun-93
Dec-94
45,000
Oct-95
40,000
Apr-96
Oct-96
MW
35,000
Jun-97
Sep-97
30,000
Sep-98(RER)
25,000
Sep-98(MER)
Sep-98(LER)
20,000
Feb-01
Aug-02
15,000
Jan-04(LEG)
Jan-04(MEG)
10,000
Jan-04(TEG)
5,000
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
ACTUAL
Power Development Plan
(Planned installed capacity = peak demand + 15% reserve)
Regional Power Grid
• Main agenda of regional cooperation
• Claimed benefits:
– Increased reliability, shared power reserves
– Energy transfer among member countries
with different peak periods, resources
– Savings of 1,377 – 2,554 MW new capacity
avoided (Source: ADB’s GMS Grid Master Plan)
2020 Peak
Demand in
GMS Countries
Source: Norconsult, Indicative Master Plan on Power
Interconnection in GMS Countries, June 2002
ADB’s
Interconnection
Master Plan for
GMS countries
Source: Norconsult, Indicative Master
Plan on Power Interconnection in GMS
Countries, June 2002
Reality of GMS Power Grid:
expensive, risky investment
US$billion
Project cost 43.50 - 44.96
Cost
savings*
0.45 - 0.91
% benefit of
total cost
1.0 – 2.1%
*Cost savings of extended power
cooperation scenarios over base case
• Costs excluded in
analysis:
– Control center
– Water usage
– Regulator & reliability
coordination
– Transitional costs
• Increased vulnerability:
events in Laos/Cambodia
determine reliability of Thai
Grid
Source: Comments on Indicative Master Plan on Power Interconnection in GMS Countries
by Bretton W. Garrett, P.Eng., Ph.D.
US$10 billion overinvestment
The public is bearing high electricity costs as a
result of THB 400 billion (US$10 billion) overinvestment of in power generation.
-- Thai Prime Minister
Thaksin Shinawatra
Source: The Nation (2003). “PM Pressing for Egat IPO this
year’. The Nation. March 14.
There is an alternative to the
supply-driven, capital-intensive
power sector planning
Revised Peak Demand Forecast
Jan 04 Forecast
Year
Assumed
per
annum
GDP
growth
rate
Peak
Demand
(MW)
Forecast
(revised)
Adjustments to Jan 04 forecast (MW)
Use
actual
2004
peak as
base
(19,326)
GDP
Growth
= 5.6%
(average
past 15
yrs)
Demand
: GDP =
1:1
Peak Cut
(according
to EGAT’s
PDP
2004)
Total
Adjustment
(MW)
Peak
Demand
(MW)
2547
6.5%
19,600
-274
0
0
0
-274
19,326
2548
6.5%
21,143
-296
-35
-259
0
-590
20,553
2549
6.5%
22,738
-318
-110
-482
-500
-1411
21,327
2550
6.5%
24,344
-340
-227
-629
-500
-1696
22,648
2551
6.4%
26,048
-364
-373
-797
-500
-2034
24,014
2552
6.4%
27,852
-389
-577
-962
-500
-2429
25,423
2553
6.6%
29,808
-417
-903
-1113
-500
-2933
26,875
2554
6.5%
31,844
-445
-1280
-1252
-500
-3477
28,367
2555
6.5%
33,945
-475
-1731
-1343
-500
-4048
29,897
2556
6.5%
36,173
-506
-2277
-1428
-500
-4711
31,462
2557
6.4%
38,515
-538
-2897
-1519
-500
-5454
33,061
2558
6.5%
40,978
-573
-3652
-1565
-500
-6290
34,688
Projects under construction/negotiation
Alternative PDP
EGAT’s PDP 2004
Thermal Kra Bi #1
340.0
MW
Thermal Kra Bi #1
340.0
MW
Gas Turbine Lan Kra Bue
122.0
MW
Gas Turbine Lan Kra Bue
122.0
MW
Lum Ta Kong hyfro dam #1-2
500.0
MW
Lum Ta Kong hyfro dam #1-2
500.0
MW
1,346.5
MW
BLCP Power #1-2
1,346.5
MW
700.0
MW
Gulf Power Generation
700.0
MW
1,400.0
MW
Ratchaburi Power #1-2
1,400.0
MW
151.1
MW
SPP (renewable)
151.1
MW
60.0
MW
SPP (old power purchase declaration) 60.0
MW
920.0
MW
BLCP Power #1-2
Gulf Power Generation
Ratchaburi Power #1-2
SPP (renewable)
SPP (old power purchase declaration)
Nam Thuen 2 in Laos
total
5539.6 MW
total
4619.6
MW
New Projects
EGAT’s PDP 2004
Alternative PDP
Non industrial
4 Repowering plants
2,485
MW
-DSM
-Renewable Energy
20 New power plants
RPS
total
13,770
MW
770
MW
17,025
total
500
MW
1,800
MW
2,300 MW
Industrial
-DSM
1,000
MW
390
MW
-Cogeneration
2,500
MW
-Repowering
4,310
MW
-Renewable energy (RPS 5%)
MW
total
total
8,200 MW
10,500
MW
Cleaner, more economic, more efficient
sources of supply are not given due
consideration despite high potential
Cogeneration
COGEN
Demand-side
Management
and energy
efficiency
Wind, solar,
microhydropower,
biogas,
biomass, etc.
Combined
power and
heat (CHP) or
co-generation
DSM & Cogeneration: big potential
• DSM
– 2000 to 3000 MW: “Achievable and cost
effective DSM” in 1991 (Utility study)
•
IIEC (International Institute for Energy Conservation). 1991. Demand Side Management for Thailand’s
Electric Power System: Five-Year Master Plan. Submitted to Electricity Generating Authority of
Thailand, Metropolitan Electricity Authority and Provincial Electricity Authority, Bangkok, Thailand.
Bangkok, Thailand. November.
• Cogeneration
– 8610 MW cogen installed as of 2001
•
http://www.jxj.com/magsandj/cospp/2002_05/cogen_southeast_asia.html
– Since 1998, utilities accepting no new cogen.
At least 3,000 MW of additional cogen had
applied and have not been accepted.
Hourly electricity load duration curve (year 2002)
MW
> 1,000 MW in
66 hours
16300
16100
16000
15900
14000
15700
12000
15500
15300
10000
2001 PEAK = 16,126 MW
60
48
36
24
0
8000
12
15100
6000
4000
2000
0
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
hours
Renewables account for very little of
Thailands’ installed generating capacity
Imported coal
0.6% grid-connected renewables
Big
hydro
lignite
พลังน้ ำ
ก๊ำซธรรมชำติ
Fuel oil
น้ ำมันเตำ
ดีเซล
Natural gas
ลิกไนต์
ถ่ำนหินนำเข ้ำ
พลังงำนหมุนเวียน
ื่ มไทย-มำเลเซย
ี
สำยสง่ เชอ
TOTAL: 26,000 MW
Source: EGAT (2003). Power Development Plan
Thai government target: 8%
renewable energy by year 2011
Conventional
energy 81%
TE
16.5%
TE = Traditional Energy
NRE = New & Renewable Energy
2002
52,939 KTOE
NRE
0.5%
(265 ktoe)
TE
11%
Conventional
energy 81%
2011
83,354 KTOE
NRE
8%
(6,668 KTOE)
Electricity
1,170 KTOE
Thai government target &
strategy for renewable energy
RPS 437 MW
- Solar 200 MW
- Wind 100 MW
- MSW 100 MW
- Biomass
37 MW
- Hydro
INCENTIVE
Electricity
Solar
6 MW
Wind
0.2 MW
Biomass 560 MW
Heat
~ 0.00 KTOE
RPS
Incentive
1,093 MW
-Biomass
-Hydro
RE
8%
RE
0.5%
Heat
(Incentive)
3,900 KTOE
Bio fuel
~ 0.00 KTOE
Bio Fuel (Incentive)
R&D
1,600
KTOE
Ethanol 3.0 M liter/day
Bio diesel 2.4 M liter/day
Facilitator
2002
2011
Replacement of imported oil 48 mill. barrels values 96,537 Mill. Baht
Estimate of installed grid-connected
renewables in Thailand (2004)
Resource
Capacity (MW)
Biogas
7
Biomass
215 (to grid)
(not including 419 MW self-gen)
Small & micro-hydro
139
Solar PV
1.2
Wind
0.7
TOTAL
363
Source: 2003 Thai government figures + updates for biogas & PV based on
recent installations
Estimated renewable energy
potential in Thailand
Resource
Technical
potential
(MW)
Commerical
Potential*
(MW)
Year 2011
Government
targets (MW)
Biomass (includes biogas)
Solar PV
Wind
Micro- & Mini- hydro
7,000
>5,000
1,600
700
>4,300
?
?
>200
1140
250
100
350
Total
>14,000
>4,500
1840
* Commercial potential based on actual prices paid to renewable energy generators currently on-line
Source: Technical potential and Targets from Thai Ministry of Energy. (2003).“Energy Strategy for
Competitiveness” http://www.eppo.go.th/admin/moe-workshop1/index.html. Commercial potential from
from Black & Veatch 2000 and NEPO/DANCED 1998 as well as interviews with power plant
managers.
Breakdown of economically viable
biomass resource
Biomass resource
Economic potential (MW)
Bagasse
1900
Biogas (cassava, pig, food waste)
1185
Wood residues
950
Rice husk
100
Corncob
54
Distillery slop
49
Coconut
43
Palm oil residues
43
TOTAL
4,324
Source: Black and Veatch (2000). Final Report: Thailand Biomass-Based Power Generation and Cogeneration Within Small Rural Industries. Bangkok, NEPO;
NEPO/DANCED (1998). Investigation of Pricing Incentive in a Renewable Energy Strategy -- Main report. Bangkok. Bagasse figure from interview with interview
with Sirisak Tatong, power plant manager at Mitr Phol sugar factory. Biogas from interviews with biogas developers
Technology is available…
• Steam turbines for direct combustion of biomass
–
–
–
–
Rice husk, wood chip, palm husk, bagasse, coconut husk, etc.
Size >1 MW
Capital cost $1200/kW
Commercially available in Thailand
• Bio-digestors & engines for biogas
– Pig manure, cassava, palm oil, municipal wastes, distillery slop
– Size > 30 kW
– Problems with SO2 resolvable
• Gasifiers
–
–
–
–
Rice husk, wood chip
Size > 50 kW.
Problems with tar in some fuels
Commercially available for wood chip
Reduces air and water pollution
Biogas from
Pig Farms
Produces fertilizer
Produces electricity
Biogas from Pig
Farms
Community
micro-hydro
• Mae Kam Pong village,
Chiang Mai
• 40 kW
• Community cooperative
• Expected gross
revenues: 30,000
baht/month
40 kW micro-hydro generator at
Mae Kam Pong
Korat Waste to Energy - biogas
• Uses waste water from cassava to make methane
• Produces gas for all factory heat (30 MW thermal) + 3
MW of electricity
• Earns high market returns
• Developer estimates 300 MW from waste water + 800
MW from wet cake
Korat Waste to Energy - biogas
• 3 x 1 MW Jenbacher gas generators
Thank you
For more information, please contact
[email protected]
[email protected]
Independent Regulatory Body
Proposed reform for Thailand’s power sector
EGAT (Thermal
Generation)
Power Purchase
~ 15,000 MW
~ 10,000 MW
IPP/Egco/Ratch/SPP
New generation
(distributed
generation/
community-owned/
renewables)
New
Generation
(Private sector)
Transmission Utility (EGAT Transmission)
Transmission
System Operation
Hydropower
Distribution Utilities (MEA/PEA)
Distribution
Existing
demand
~ 19,000 MW
Supply/Retail *
New demand
New demand
(residential/smal
l businesses/
others)
(large users)
* Communities and local bodies have the right to manage and procure their own power supply if
they wish. MEA/PEA provide distribution services but do not monopolize the system use.
The “alternative PDP”: a response to the
problems of supply-driven planning process
EGAT PDP
• Excessive electricity
demand prediction
• Little consideration of
clean/cost-effective
alternatives
Alternative PDP
• Correct errors; revise
demand based on
historic growth
• Incorporate DSM,
cogeneration, and
renewable energy