Transcript SA475: Trends in Technology - Computer Science

SA475: Trends in Technology
Presented for
BlueCross BlueShield of South Carolina
By
The Rushing Center
Furman University
1
Key Learning Outcomes
When you complete this course you will be able to:
1)
Contrast the evolutionary versus the revolutionary approach to
technological innovation.
2)
Distinguish between sustaining and disruptive technologies and
innovations
3)
Discuss the elements of an innovation strategy.
4)
Give a brief description of the following emerging
technologies/innovations:
Grid (distributed/utility) computing
Virtualization
The Cloud
Crowdsourcing
Social Networking and Social Analytics
Context Aware Computing
Data mining
Nanotechnology
Quantum computing
Bio Technology in computing
3-D Printing
Google’s Project Loon
Advanced Robotics
Big Data and Hadoop
The Internet of Things
2
CONTENTS
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Module 1: Evolutionary vs. Revolutionary Change
Module 2: Sustaining vs. Disruptive Innovations
Module 3: Some Emerging Technologies/Innovations
Module 4: The Innovators Dilemma
Module 5: Elements of an Innovation Strategy
References
3
MODULE 1
Evolutionary vs. Revolutionary Change
BlueCross and BlueShield
of South Carolina
The Rushing Center
Furman University
4
Organizational Agility
Kathy Harris, Vice President and Distinguished Analyst in Gartner's
Executive Leadership and Innovation team, recently made the
following observation:
“Agility is an organization’s ability to sense changes and to
respond efficiently and effectively to them. In 2009, if there’s
one thing that organizations need, it’s agility. Our economy and the
business environment are a steady stream of ups, downs and rapid
change; in such an environment, the ability to sense, respond and
react are true survival skills! … Aim to make your organization agile
throughout – this means ensuring that people, processes and
technology are flexible and adaptable to change.”
5
Being a Change Leader
Peter Drucker, who has written extensively about innovation and
change, declares that it is “a central 21st-century challenge that
[organizations] become change leaders.”
He further asserts that change leader organizations will see change
as opportunity, and hence will actively seek out the right kind of
change for the organization.
While we might be tempted to assume that such organizations
would embrace bold and daring steps to establish themselves as
change leaders, the process Drucker describes for doing this is
an evolutionary as opposed to a revolutionary one. He
advocates an analytical and systematic approach focused on
creating continuous improvement as the primary basis for becoming
a change leader.
6
Good to Great
In his book, Good to Great, Jim Collins also finds evidence of the
value of an evolutionary approach to change. In his study of
companies that rose from good to great he found no pattern of
singularly identifiable, transforming moments to which they could
attribute their remarkable success.
He writes, “revolutionary leaps in (company) results were
evident, but not by revolutionary process.” In other words, he
found that, consistent with Drucker’s assertions, evolutionary, not
revolutionary, processes were at work.
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Revolutionary Results
Total I/S Staffing Levels: 1993-2008
8
Revolutionary Results
Total Online Transactions: 1993-2008
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Evolution, Not Revolution in I/S
The BCBSSC Information System Division has
taken a unique, evolutionary, and systematic
approach in the development and
implementation of its administrative and
operational practices over the past 20 years.
I/S Management Practices Manual
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I/S Organizational Architecture: OSD-IT Model
External Influencing
Factors
Client Business
Environment
• Customers
• Client Business Definition
• Client
Choices
Mission
Guiding Principles
Strategies to Influence
External Environment
• User
Goals & Objectives
IT Industry
• IT Skill Sets
• Computer Technology
• Best Practices
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A model-based evolutionary and
systematic approach in the
development and implementation
of an IT Organization’s
administrative and operational
practices.
Organizational
Culture
Outcomes
Advantages of the Evolutionary Approach
- Balancing Change and Continuity 
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This approach has resulted in the creation of innovative, functionrich, and award-winning healthcare administrative systems based
on a standard, yet flexible systems architecture which
incorporates current and future business requirements that can be
leveraged across various business segments.
It has also provided the benefits of increased technological
economies of scale by leveraging technical capabilities within an
effective IT Service Management framework across various
business segments to efficiently handle increased operational
volumes.
And most importantly, it has provided the ability to integrate IT
staff as required while ensuring management philosophies and
administrative and operational practices remain intact.
I/S Management Practices Manual
12
The Nature of Innovation
Sustained improvements over time lead naturally to process and
product innovations.
Drucker has advocated that innovation is much more the product of
systematic hard work – what he calls the practice of innovation –
than of flashes of insight and genius.
He expresses it as follows. “To be effective, an innovation has to
be simple, and it has to be focused. The greatest praise an
innovation can receive is for people to say, ‘This is obvious!
Why didn’t I think of it? It’s so simple!’ By contrast, grandiose
ideas for things that will ‘revolutionize an industry’ are unlikely
to work.”
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The Practice of Innovation
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The process of systematically anticipating and proactively responding to change is very closely aligned
with the practice of innovation.
An innovation is more than a brilliant new idea.
An innovation is accomplished by creating something
new that also proves to be appropriate and useful for
some purpose.
14
Technology Brokering
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Andrew Hargadon explores the idea of innovation as
systematic work in his book How Breakthroughs Happen.
Based on ten years of study into the origins of historic
inventions and modern innovations the book’s findings
reinforce that innovations do not usually result from
flashes of brilliance.
Instead, innovations are much more likely to come about
from the creative combination of ideas, concepts, and
products from existing technologies in ways that
spark new technological initiatives.
Hargadon calls this process technology brokering.
15
Hargadon’s “Rules”

The future is already here
 In other words, organizations that seek to anticipate
and exploit change will do well to consider carefully
the activities, products, and services they and others
are focused on in the present.
 It is almost always the baseline of present activities
that allows organizations to make the insightful moves
that position them as change leaders in their industry.
16
Hargadon’s “Rules”

Analogy trumps invention
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Instead of searching for insights and flashes of brilliance that no
one else has thought about or considered, a more promising
approach is to look for successful ideas and inventions in other
areas and think creatively about how to combine them, modify
them, and apply them to the opportunity or problem you have at
hand.
This approach has more promise simply because it is much
easier to recognize the similarities between two situations than to
come up with something neither you nor anyone else has ever
thought of before.
In this approach, you attempt to think inside other boxes, to use
Hargadon’s phrase, instead of trying to follow the more common
advice of thinking “outside the box.”
17
I/S Guiding Principles
Technology itself is never a primary cause of either greatness or
decline in a business. Avoid technology fads and bandwagons.
Recognize that you cannot make good use of technology until you
know which technology is relevant to the business it supports.
Technology can accelerate business momentum, but not create it.
Therefore, you need the discipline to say no to the use of technology.
Crawl, walk, run is a very effective approach to technology
change!
18
I/S Guiding Principles
Keep your eye on the goal. Inventing the “Next Big Thing” is not the
goal. Building the “Current Big Thing” better than anyone else is the
goal. We are not Alpha inventors, we are Beta improvers!
19
I/S Guiding Principles
If you start with a blank sheet of paper, you’re dead. “Thinking outside
the box” has come to mean thinking of a solution that is somehow
outside of what you already know and do, and coming up with
something wholly new. Pushing people to think outside the box doesn’t
work. Instead, our approach to innovation is to take an idea or
solution that has been used somewhere else, combine a number of
existing ideas or solutions, and introduce them as a solution never
seen before.
20
I/S Guiding Principles
Maintain an attitude of healthy discontent. Sound management requires
a probing, inquiring mind. Satisfaction with the status quo should be
avoided. As you carry out your responsibilities as a manager,
intelligently question existing practices and procedures. Ensure the
most effective, up-to-date methods are being used. Actions based on
the rationale, “that's the way we've always done it" should be examined
closely. As a manager, you must not be afraid to challenge precedent.
Be alert for antiquated or improper practices, which must be changed.
21
Team Exercise
1)
2)
Can you identify some examples of evolutionary
innovations that the I/S Division has implemented?
Can you identify some examples of attempted
revolutionary change in the IT industry that didn’t
work out so well?
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MODULE 2
Sustaining vs. Disruptive Innovations
BlueCross and BlueShield
of South Carolina
The Rushing Center
Furman University
23
Group Exercise: Case Study of DEC
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Listen to the first part of the lecture by Clayton
Christensen.
What happened to DEC?
How did this happen?
Could it have been avoided?
What would it have taken to do this?
24
Sustaining Technology/Innovation
A sustaining technology/innovation is a
technology or innovation employed to improve a
company’s product or service to better meet their
customers’ needs.
Sustaining innovations can be:
• evolutionary
• revolutionary
• incremental and gradual
• discontinuous and dramatic
The distinction is not about the innovation
itself but rather what it is used to do.
25
Disruptive Technology/Innovation
A disruptive technology/innovation is a technology or
innovation employed to appeal to or even create a new
market.
Disruptive technologies and innovations
are often characterized (at least at first) by:
-
• inferior performance
• lack of appeal to established
customer base
• lower profit margins
+
• convenience
• appeal to a select group of potential customers
• lower cost
26
Sustaining or Disruptive?
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Microsoft’s development of Internet Explorer
Open-source software (like Linux)
More fuel-efficient cars
Sustaining vs.
Electric cars
disruptive can
depend on your
The personal computer
perspective
Selling computers via the Internet
Selling stocks via the Internet
Education via the Internet
Online banking
Insurance claims processing via the Internet
27
Market for Disruptive Innovations?
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The personal computer (in the early 1980s)
PDAs
Electric cars
Buying computers via the Internet
Buying stocks via the Internet
Open-source software (like Linux)
Online banking
Digital goods (books, music, movies, newspapers) via the
Internet
Books & travel via the Internet
How can such markets
change over time?
How might the rate of
potential change differ
for these examples?
28
Markets and Technology Innovations
sustaining
performance that
market can absorb
disruptive
time
Adapted from The Innovator’s Dilemma, Clayton Christensen
29
Group Exercise
1)
2)
3)
Identify some sustaining technologies or
innovations that BCBS of SC has implemented.
Would you classify any of these as potentially
disruptive technologies/innovations for others?
Can you identify potential future disruptive
technologies or innovations for the company?
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MODULE 3
Some Emerging Technologies/Innovations
BlueCross and BlueShield
of South Carolina
The Rushing Center
Furman University
31
Some Emerging Technologies
Grid (distributed/utility) computing
 Virtualization
 The Cloud
 Crowdsourcing
 Social Networking and Social Analytics
 Context Aware Computing
 Data mining
 Nanotechnology
 Quantum computing
 Ambient Devices
 Bio Technology in computing
 3-D Printing
 Google’s Project Loon
 Advanced Robotics
 Big Data and Hadoop
 The Internet of Things

Photo by Randall Schwanke
Emerging Technologies, MIT Technology Review
32
The Cloud
What is Cloud Computing
Why Cloud Computing
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The latest state of grid computing commercialization is often referred to
as cloud computing, or simply the cloud.
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The name derives from the fact that cloud computing involves software
that resides in the “clouds” of the Internet.

According to Vinton Cerf (one of the creators of the Internet and VP
and Chief Internet Evangelist at Google):
“At Google we operate a number of data centers around the world,
each of which contains a large number of computers linked to one
another in clusters. In turn, the data centers are linked through a highspeed private network. The data centers support applications and
services that users can access over the Internet to tap into virtually
unlimited computing power on demand, a process known as cloud
computing.”
33
The Cloud (cont’d)
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Conceptually a cloud operates by creating virtual
machines (VMs) on servers. These VMs can be
created and configured in an instant, and
disappear just as fast when no longer needed.

These dynamically allocated VMs give users
access to essentially as much computing power
as they need for a very low price, compared to
what it would cost for them to provide the same
computing power on their own.
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In addition to a low price, the user is relieved of all
maintenance issues.

The analogy with the electric grid captures the
concept very closely.
34
The Cloud (cont’d)
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For example, Gmail, Twitter and Facebook are all
cloud applications.
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The load and performance demands of each of
these are unpredictable and vary considerably
over time.

The almost-immediate expansion capabilities of
the cloud makes applications like these robust at
a reasonable cost.
35
The Cloud (cont’d)
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Amazon, IBM, Microsoft, Sun, Salesforce and others are
implementing and experimenting with systems similar to
the one that Google has developed.
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Currently, all these clouds operate in isolation
communicating only with their users.

Cerf suggests that one of the great challenges for cloud
computing is to create ways for the clouds to
communicate with each other, giving users the option of
moving data form one cloud to another without first
downloading it and then uploading it again to another
cloud.

Cloud computing service providers offer server space and
processing and often operate these servers for many
businesses
36
Computing in the Cloud
The 3 Ways to Cloud Compute
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Cloud computing includes three main areas of
service:
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Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS)
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Platform as a Service (PaaS)
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Delivery of a computing platform over the Internet
Software as a Service (SaaS)
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Delivery of a networked computing structure over the
Internet
Delivery of software applications over the Internet
Cloud computing is more cost-effective
37
Infrastructure as a Service: Virtualization
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Using virtualization, one host machine can operate as if it
were several smaller servers
Video
Virtualization can
generate huge savings.
Some studies have
shown that on average,
conventional data centers
run at 15 percent or less
of their maximum
capacity. Data centers
using virtualization
software have increased
utilization to 80 percent or
more
38
Software-as-a-Service
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Software-as-a-service (SaaS) – delivery model
for software in which you pay for software on a
pay-per-use basis instead of buying the software
outright
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Use any device anywhere to do anything
Pay a small fee and store files on the Web
Access those files later with your “regular” computer
Makes use of an application service provider
Force.com video dashboards
9-39
Consumer Applications in the Cloud
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Cloud computing makes it possible for companies to
offer Web-based versions of popular personal
computer programs
•
Top Free Cloud Computing Software
40
Creating New Applications from Data in the Cloud
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Mashups are Web applications that combine content or data from
multiple online sources into new Web applications
Contents are continually updated
Content for mashups often comes from Web feeds and Web services
Amazon uses mashup technologies to aggregate product descriptions with
partner sites and user profiles, commentaries, and images.
Travel sites, such as Travelocity, Kayak, Matador, and Travature, integrate
standard content (such as airfare search engines, travel guides, maps,
and hotel reviews) with comments, ratings, and images from users.
Creating mashups usually requires significant Web development
experience
Mapping mashups are the most popular type of mashup
HousingMaps.com
SpotCrime.com

SpotCrime displays the locations of criminal incident reports on a Google Map to
illustrate where crime takes place in a neighborhood.
41
The Cloud – Security Issues
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In cloud computing, thousands of different clients use the
same hardware on a large scale – the key to the efficiency
of the cloud in providing such low cost services.
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However, security researchers have demonstrated that
when two programs are running simultaneously on the same
operating system, an attacker can steal data by using an
eavesdropping program to analyze the way those programs
share memory space.

Could this same technique be used in clouds when different
virtual machines (VMs) run on the same server?
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Several researchers recently demonstrated that this could in
fact happen utilizing Amazon’s Elastic Compute Cloud.
42
The Cloud – Security Issues (cont’d)
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In 2008, a single corrupted bit in messages between servers
used by Amazon’s Simple Storage Service which provides
online data storage by the gigabyte, forced the system to
shut down for several hours.
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In 2009, a hacker who correctly guessed the answer to a
Twitter employee’s email security question was able to grab
all the documents in the Google Apps account the employee
used.
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Also in 2009, a bug comprised the sharing restrictions
placed on some users’ documents in Google Docs.
Distinctions were erased: anyone with whom you shared
document access could also see documents you shared
with anyone else.
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Late in 2009, a million T-Mobile Sidekick smart phones lost
data after a server failure at Danger, a subsidiary of
Microsoft that provided the storage.
43
The Future of the Cloud
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According to the Gartner Group:
 “By 2011, early technology adopters will forgo capital expenditures and
instead purchase 40 percent of their IT infrastructure as a service,”
 “Increased high-speed bandwidth makes it practical to locate
infrastructure at other sites and still receive the same response times."
69 % of America’s Internet users are using some form of Internet-based
computing, such as web-based e-mail or photo storage, according to a study
by Pew Research Center.
By 2013, 12 % of the world software market will be Internet based forms of
SaaS and cloud computing, according to Merrill Lynch.
What impact will a long-term, global recession have on cloud computing?
 A survey by ScanSafe, a SaaS provider of security services, revealed that
78% of IT managers believe economic uncertainty makes SaaS more
appealing.
"A move towards clouds signals a fundamental shift in how we handle
information," writes Stephen Baker in Business Week. "At the most basic
level, it's the computing equivalent of the evolution in electricity a century ago
when farms and businesses shut down their own generators and bought
power instead from efficient. industrial utilities."
44
The Future of the Cloud (cont’d)
The focus of IT innovation has shifted from hardware to software
applications. Many of these applications are going on at a blistering pace,
and cloud computing is going to be a great facilitative technology for a lot
of these people.
Dale Jorgenson, Harvard Economist and
expert on the role of IT in national productivity
Clouds are systems. And with systems, you have to think hard and know
how to deal with issues in that environment. The scale is so much bigger,
and you don’t have the physical control. But we think people should be
optimistic about what we can do here. If we are clever about deploying
cloud computing with a clear-eyed notion of what the risk models are,
maybe we can actually save the economy through technology.
Peter Mell, Leader Cloud Security Team
National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)
45
Crowdsourcing
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Crowdsourcing organizations (involve their users in the
design and marketing of their products.
Shoe startup company RYZ (see next slide) sponsors
shoe design contests to help it understand which shoes
to create and how to market those designs.
Example: Netflix announcement of reward for
technology solution to its movie recommendation
Crowdsourcing combines social networking, viral
marketing, and open-source design, saving considerable
cost while cultivating customers.
With crowdsourcing, the crowd performs classic in-house
market research and development and does so in such a
way that customers are being set up to buy.
Video
Design by Crowdsourcing
The Future of Social Technology
 Gartner predicts that by 2016, social
technologies will be integrated with most
business applications.
 Companies should bring together their social
CRM, internal communications and
collaboration, and public social site initiatives
into a coordinated strategy.
48
Social Networking in Business
• Businesses can use these tools to reach out and market to
potential new customers.
• Many businesses have Facebook sites to market their
product to specific groups on Facebook.
• They can use these tools to support and give added
value to existing customers.
• A software company could have a blog that discusses indepth use of a software product.
• Businesses can use these tools within their company to
communicate between departments and share knowledge.
• Wiki – allows you (as a visitor) to create, edit, change, and
often eliminate content
• A company wiki could be set up as a repository of
expert information.
How Can Businesses Utilize Social
Networking Applications?
Social networking application
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A computer program that interacts with and
processes information in a social network
Examples:
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Survey Hurricane, a Facebook application created by
Infinistorm (www.infinistorm.com).
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Users who install that application on their page can survey their
friends on topics of interest.
Applications for buying and selling items, comparing movies,
and so on
Social Analytics
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 Social analytics describes the process of
measuring, analyzing and interpreting the results of
interactions and associations among people, topics
and ideas
These interactions may occur on social software applications used in the
workplace, or on the social Web.
Social analytics is an umbrella term that includes a number of specialized
analysis techniques such as:
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social filtering,
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techniques that identify information a user might be interested in
used to create "recommendation systems" that can, for example, enhance your
experience on a Web site by suggesting music or movies that you might like
social-network analysis,
sentiment analysis
social-media analytics.
Social network analysis tools are useful for examining social structure
and interdependencies as well as the work patterns of individuals, groups
or organizations.
Social network analysis involves collecting data from multiple sources,
identifying relationships, and evaluating the impact, quality or
effectiveness of a relationship.
Sentiment Analysis
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Web Site
Video
Wikipedia defines sentiment analysis as the process that “aims to
determine the attitude of a speaker or a writer with respect to
some topic.”
Automated sentiment analysis is the process of training a
computer to identify sentiment within content through Natural
Language Processing (NLP). (Google Translate)
Various sentiment measurement platforms employ different
techniques and statistical methodologies to evaluate sentiment
across the web. Some rely 100% on automated sentiment, some
employ humans to analyze sentiment, and some use a hybrid
system.
The social media health of a brand is how it’s public sentiment
compares to that of its competitors.
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If your sentiment is 20% negative, is that bad? The answer is, it
depends.
However, if you see your competitors with a roughly 50% positive and
10% negative sentiment, while yours is 20% negative, that probably
merits investigation to understand the drivers of these opinions.
Context Aware Computing
Video
 Using information about an end user’s
environment, activities, connections and
preferences to improve the quality of interaction
with that end user.
 The end user may be a customer, business partner or
employee.
 A contextually aware system anticipates the user's needs and
proactively serves up the most appropriate and customized
content, product or service.
 Gartner predicts that by 2013, more than half of Fortune 500
companies will have context-aware computing initiatives, and
by 2016, one-third of worldwide mobile consumer marketing
will be context-awareness-based
Context aware computing discussion
Context aware computing in the future
For instance, sensors attached to a TV remote control can collect data on how the
remote is held by different users and build profiles based on that. Such a remote, of
which Intel showed a prototype at the conference, could identify who’s holding the
remote and offer recommendations for TV shows based on that
Web 3.0
•Web 3.0 is the vision of the next generation of the Web in
which all of the information available on the Web is woven
together into a single experience.
•The related movement called the Semantic Web is a
collaborative effort to add a layer of meaning to existing
information to reduce the amount of human time spent in
searching and processing that information.
•This potentially could have huge effects on businesses as
simple analysis becomes mechanized, requiring fewer
humans to perform this basic task.
Linking Data in Context:
A Prelude to Web 3.0 and Beyond
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Web 3.0 is the name that is being used to
describe emerging trends that allow people and
machines to link information in new way
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Personal Web assistants called Agents can make
decisions and take actions based on a user’s
preferences
Many describe Web 3.0 as the rise of the
Semantic Web

Intelligent software tools can read Web pages and
discern useful information from them.
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Linking Data in Context:
A Prelude to Web 3.0 and Beyond
56
Linking Data in Context:
A Prelude to Web 3.0 and Beyond
57
Advancing Rates of Technology
(Moore’s Law)
5-58
Get Out Your Crystal Ball
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When technology gets cheap, price elasticity
kicks in
The five waves of computing over the previous
five decades:
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1960s – Mainframe computers
1970s – Minicomputers
1980s – PCs
1990s – Internet computing
Present – Ubiquitous computing
5-59
Ambient Devices and the Fifth Wave
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Ambient Devices is a “fifth wave” firm that’s
embedding computing and communications devices
into everyday products to make them more useful and
smarter
Ambient’s ability to pull off this miracle is evidence
of how quickly new markets, spawned by Moore’s
Law, can come into being
Ambient has expanded the product line to several
low-cost appliances designed to provide information
at a glance
Their products include:
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An umbrella that checks the weather and warns the owner,
via a blinking handle, of impending rain conditions.
The Orb, a lamp that changes color in response to changes
in factors including pollen count
A refrigerator that offers reminders of important events
5-60
Moore’s Law in Medicine

The GlowCap from Vitality, Inc. is a “smart” pill bottle
that will flash when you’re supposed to take your
medicine and alert the pharmacy when it’s time to refill

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Tests show that GlowCap users reported a 98 % medication
adherence rate.
Proteus, a Novartis- backed venture, has developed a
sensor made of food and vitamin material that can be
swallowed in medicine.
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Once inside you, the chip sends a signal with vitals such as
heart rate, body angle, temperature, sleep, and more.
Proteus then compiles a report from the data and sends it to
your mobile device, email account, or your doctor.
Can help people guard against counterfeit drugs – serious
worldwide concern
Help in bringing health care to hard to reach rural populations
Genomic Diagnostics
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Using DNA sequencing to help doctors and
pharmaceutical companies personalize treatments
for disease has netted a South Carolina startup a
small seed round of capital.
Translating genomic data into meaningful
information is a cutting edge technology in medicine
right now
Read more: http://medcitynews.com/2013/06/molecular-genomic-diagnosticservice-lab-raising-900k-to-enable-personalized-medicine/#ixzz2W9Nonpu4
Read more: http://medcitynews.com/2013/06/molecular-genomic-diagnosticservice-lab-raising-900k-to-enable-personalized-medicine/#ixzz2W9Mz7Z3o
62
Bytes Defined
5-63
The Death of Moore’s Law?

Moore’s Law is possible because the distance
between the pathways inside silicon chips gets
smaller with each successive generation



Since the pathways are closer together, electrons travel
shorter distances
If electrons travel half the distance to make a calculation,
that means the chip is twice as fast
This shrinking can’t go on forever



Three interrelated forces—size, heat, and power—threaten
to slow down Moore’s Law’s advance
As chips get smaller and more powerful, they get hotter
and present power-management challenges
At some point Moore’s Law will stop because we will no
longer be able to shrink the spaces between components
on a chip.
5-64
The Death of Moore’s Law?

Microsoft, Yahoo!, and Google have all built
massive data centers in the Pacific Northwest in
order to benefit from cheap hydroelectric power



The chief eco officer at Sun Microsystems has claimed
that computers draw four to five percent of the world’s
power
Google’s chief technology officer has said that the firm
spends more to power its servers than the cost of the
servers themselves
Chips can’t get smaller forever because chip
pathways can’t be shorter than a single molecule
and actual physical limit may be higher
5-65
Buying Time

Multicore microprocessors: Microprocessors
with two or more (typically lower power)
calculating processor cores on the same piece
of silicon


For many applications, the multicore chips will
outperform a single speedy chip, while running
cooler and drawing less power
Multicore processors are now mainstream


Today, most PCs and laptops sold have at least a two-core (dual-core)
processor
Intel has demonstrated chips with upwards of fifty cores
5-66
Buying Time

Multicore processors can run older software written
for single-brain chips



They usually do this by using only one core at a time
In order to take full advantage of multicore chips,
applications need to be rewritten to split up tasks
so that smaller portions of a problem are executed
simultaneously inside each core
Writing code for execution in a multicore
environment is challenging
5-67
Buying Time


Another approach moves chips from being
paper-flat devices to built-up 3-D affairs
By building up as well as out, firms are radically
boosting speed and efficiency of chips
5-68
Bringing Brains Together: Supercomputing
and Grid Computing



Supercomputers: Computers that are among the
fastest of any in the world at the time of their
introduction
Supercomputing was once the domain of
governments and high-end research labs
Modern supercomputing is done via massively
parallel processing

Massively parallel: Computers designed with many
microprocessors that work together, simultaneously, to
solve problems
5-69
Bringing Brains Together:
Supercomputing and Grid Computing


Grid computing: A type of computing that uses
special software to enable several computers to
work together on a common problem as if they
were a massively parallel supercomputer
Multicore, massively parallel, and grid
computing are all related in that each attempts
to lash together multiple computing devices so
that they can work together to solve problems
5-70
Grid (Distributed/Utility) Computing continued



Computing grids pool together and manage resources
from isolated systems to form a new type of low-cost
supercomputer
Makes supercomputing available where economics
would otherwise prevent this
Grids remained a bit of an oddity in the domain of
researchers for many years
Sustaining or disruptive?
71
Grid Computing: Non-commercial Uses




Most well-known example is the SETI@home
project (more than 5,000,000 volunteers and
more than 2,000,000 computing-years of CPU
time volunteered)
Oxford and Intel-United Devices cancer research
Photo by Jenny Rollo
project is another example (over 3,000,000 volunteers)
IBM sponsors an effort called World Community Grid that
connects volunteers with worthy scientific projects that could
benefit humankind (relatively new, 50,000+ members thus
far)
All of these involve:
 Volunteer efforts
 You sign up your computer and download a screensaver
which runs background processing whenever the
computer is idle
72
Grid Computing: Commercialization

Sun President, Jonathan Schwartz,
compared grid computing to history
of the electric power industry:
“The world does not need 5,000 different
custom electrical generators with 5 million
electricians customizing the distribution of
electricity. ... The industry around IT will likely
go through the same transformation that the
electric industry did about a hundred years ago.“

Bill Gates told InformationWeek six years
ago that grid computing is “the holy grail of
computing.”
73
Grid Computing: An Example
Video
Burlington Coat Factory Warehouse Corporation has deployed an enterprise
Grid computing infrastructure utilizing Oracle 10g software. The retailer's
adoption of an Oracle Grid computing solution has begun the enablement to
deliver higher application service levels, improve Information Technology (IT)
resource utilization, and allow for scalability of IT systems to support future
growth.
"Grid computing is viable with Oracle 10g," said Michael Prince, CTO, Burlington
Coat Factory. "Oracle 10g does away with the complexity related to deploying
and managing a grid. Our grid is automated, redundant, and delivers a pool
of IT resources large enough to deal with the spikes in demand that occur."
"Our Grid infrastructure allows us to maximize the use of our hardware and
software infrastructure which is key to our ability to support mixed
workloads," said Brad Friedman, CIO, Burlington Coat Factory. "With a grid at
our disposal, we can run transactional, decision support and administrative
operations simultaneously while maintaining high levels of system availability
and performance."
74
Data Mining

We hear a lot about information overload

Information overload is often more accurately data
overload

Utilizing vast amounts of data requires smarter
methods for extracting information from data

Bioinformatics and the human genome project is a
prime example

Data mining is the technology
developed to attack such
problems
Photo by Elvis Santana
75
Data Mining

Data mining relies on advances in machine learning

The goal is to create a program that can
automatically analyze large data sets and decide
what information is most relevant for a particular
problem domain
This distilled information can then be used to
automatically make predictions or to help people
make decisions faster and more accurately

76
Data Mining: Two Models

Predictive models can be used to forecast unknown or
unseen values, based on patterns determined from known
results

Also called supervised data mining

Model developed before analysis

For example, from a database of customers who have
already responded to a particular offer, a model can be
built that predicts which prospects are likeliest to respond
to the same offer

Statistical techniques used to estimate parameters

Examples


Regression analysis – measures impact of set of variables on one
another
Used for making predictions
77
Data Mining: Two Models


Descriptive models describe patterns or
underlying processes in existing data, and are
generally used to create meaningful subgroups
such as demographic clusters
Also called unsupervised data mining


Apply data mining techniques and observe results
Analysts create hypotheses after analysis to explain patterns
found


No prior model about the patterns and relationships that might
exist
Common statistical technique used:

Cluster analysis to find groups of similar customers from
customer order and demographic data.
78
Data Mining: Sampling of Business Applications
Video













Market segmentation
Error detection
Evaluation of sales patterns
Credit risk analysis
Ad revenue forecasting
Claims processing
Credit risk analysis
Cross-marketing
Customer profiling
Customer retention
Electronic commerce
Exception reports
Food-service menu analysis













Fraud detection
Government policy setting
Hiring profiles
Market basket analysis
Medical management
Member enrollment
New product development
Pharmaceutical research
Process control
Quality control
Shelf management
Targeted marketing
Warranty analysis
79
Data Mining and Privacy/Ethics
Data Mining for Terrorists and Innocents
Big Brother (NSA) is Copying Everything on the Internet




Through data mining, companies, known as “data
aggregators”, will know more about your purchasing psyche
than you, your mother, or your analyst.
If you use your card to purchase “secondhand clothing,
retread tires, bail bond services, massages, casino gambling
or betting” you alert the credit card company of potential
financial problems and, as a result, it may cancel your card or
reduce your credit limit.
Absent laws to the contrary, by 2020 your credit card data will
be fully integrated with personal and family data maintained
by the data aggregators (like Acxiom and ChoicePoint).
By 2020, some online retailers will know a lot more about
you, data aggregators, and most consumer’s purchases than
we’ll know ourselves.
Neural Networks
NN Video
Neural networks



Popular supervised data-mining technique used to
predict values and make classifications such as
“good prospect” or “poor prospect” customers
Complicated set of nonlinear equations
See kdnuggets.com to learn more
Nanotechnology




Ability to manufacture extremely small devices
“Smart” nanodust may be combined with wireless
technologies to provide new environmental monitoring
systems
Current approach – start big and squeeze, press, slice, and
dice to make things small
Nanotechnology approach – start with the smallest element
possible (i.e., atom) and build up
This nanomechanical structure fabricated by a
team of physicists at Boston University consists of
a central silicon beam, 10.7 microns long and 400
nm wide, that bears a paddle-array 500 nm long
and 200 nm wide along each side. This antennalike structure oscillated at 1.49 gigahertz or 1.49
billion times per second, making it the fastest
moving nanostructure yet created.
82
Nanotechnology Impact
Video

Pharmaceuticals


Drug delivery encapsulated in “nano-spheres”
Electronics



Video2
Faster, smaller processors
Immense storage capacities
Material Science


Stronger materials
Super conductivity
Buckyball from Wikipedia
83
Quantum Computing


Many believe that quantum computing systems represent the
next major revolution in computing
Quantum computers will be exponentially faster than today’s
fastest supercomputers
84
Quantum Computing
Video - CNN
Video

Quantum computing uses qubits instead of transistors (bits)

A single qubit (utilizing particle spin) stores and processes twice
as much information as a regular bit.

Combining qubits delivers exponential improvement
Two qubits are four times more powerful than two bits
 A 64-qubit computer would theoretically be 264 (=18 billion trillion)
times more powerful than the latest 64-bit computers!
The first prototype quantum computer (with two qubits) was created in
1998



In 2001, Almaden Research Center demonstrated a 7-qubit machine
(using 10 billion billion atoms) that could factor the number 15

In early February 2007, D-Wave Systems, Inc., a privately-held Canadian
firm headquartered near Vancouver, announced: “the world’s first
commercially viable quantum computer”
85
Quantum Computing and Security

RSA (public key) encryption is the basis for
securing data across networks today

The integrity of RSA encryption systems depends
on the practical difficulty of factoring the product
of two large primes

The incredible speed of quantum computers could
render this defense against unauthorized
decryption useless

But the news isn’t all bad, some researchers
believe new encryption methods depending on
characteristics of quantum computing could
provide the solution
86
Biometric Security

Best security is 3-step
1.
2.
3.


What you know (password)
What you have (card of some sort)
Who you are (biometric)
Today’s systems (ATMs for example) use only
the first two
One reason why identity theft is so high
9-87
Integrating Biometrics with Transaction
Processing


TPS – captures events of a transaction Video
Biometric processing system – captures
information about you, perhaps…





Weight loss
Pregnancy
Use of drugs
Alcohol level
Vitamin deficiencies
9-88
Integrating Biometrics with Transaction
Processing
9-89
Integrating Biometrics with Transaction
Processing



Is this ethical?
Can banks use ATMs and determine if you’ve
been drinking?
How will businesses of the future use biometric
information?


Ethically?
Or otherwise?
9-90
Biometric Self Tracking Tools


Monitoring tools now used in hospital ICU’s will
be wearable gadgets
Automatically send data to wearer’s cell phone
or computer around the clock.




Compared to doctor office visit .


Blood pressure
Hear rhythms
Mood
Could reveal a person’s health in context
Currently available to track


REM sleep patterns
Diet - diabetes
91
3-D Printing


This emerging technique, also referred to as
additive manufacturing, will change the way
many consumers acquire goods, and where they
are made.
Economic impact: $230 billion to $550 billion
annually by 2025, mainly from consumer uses
and direct manufacturing
Video Video2
3-D Printing in Medicine
• 3-D printers are being tested for medical applications
creating artificial ears, vaccines, feet and hearts.
• A skull produced with a 3-D printer cleared by the US Food
and Drug Administration was used in a surgical procedure
to replace 75 percent of a man’s skull earlier this year.
• That technology has the potential to transform the
orthopedics industry.
The skulls are produced layer by layer directly from
a digital CAD file without the aid of tooling. This
surgery was performed on March 4 2013. The
developing company envisions its 3-D printer
generated skulls will be used for cranial implants in
which each skull can be customized for each
patient’s anatomy.
Slices, Not Dices






If you can slice an object
You can glue the slices back together
3D printing builds 3D objects layer by layer
100-200 layers per inch
And it is slow--a Lego block can take an hour to
make
But it’s getting better—rapidly!
Basic Technique #1
Lower the platform,
add new layer
of powder,
and repeat
Platform with
layer of powder
Fuse powder
with laser or
by adding binder
(with ink-jet
printer)
Basic Technique #2

Fused Deposition
Modeling (FDM): Squirt
semiliquid material
(heated plastic for
RepRap, below, or
plaster, wax)
Basic Technique #3



Stereolithography
Tank of liquid polymer
Polymerize (harden) with
laser beam
Art
There is a collection of printable files at
http://www.3dprintables.org
What is the Future?
For many products the
standard conveyors can be
greatly reduced or
completely replaced by
3D-printer, because the
end product - for example,
a car - will not be collected
from hundreds or
thousands of individual
parts but will be produced
in one process
Google’s Project Loon



Google announced the first test of Project Loon, an effort
to build a balloon-based network that would beam the
Internet down like sunshine, making it available to
anyone, anywhere.
“Project Loon is the idea that we can could create a
network of high-altitude balloons that float about twenty
kilometers up, and through this network, we can give the
Internet to the entire world,” Rich DeVaul, the chief
technical architect, explains in this video
The launch of balloon-based Internet access is a classic
move from the playbook of disruptive technologies. Skybased Internet will be cheaper and slower than the highspeed broadband, but it will be plenty powerful enough for
plain vanilla Internet Protocol-based communications.
Advanced Robotics


iRobot Corporation and Cisco introduced the
first autonomous telepresence robot, the Ava™
500
The Ava 500 was designed to enable mobile
visual access to manufacturing facilities,
laboratories, customer experience centers and
other remote facilitates in a supply chain.
Advanced Robotics continued





The Ava 500 can move in any direction, like a human.
She can safely self-navigate real-world enterprise
environments on her way to a meeting (having already
mapped out the floor plan of the building).
She can adjust her height to accommodate who she is
meeting with (seated or standing)
She thinks on the spot and can moderate her speed and
alter her path if she senses humans in the environment
(to get to the meeting on time) and return to her charging
station after the meeting is over.
The Ava 500 also requires very little training to operate
which is key because the primary focus here is the
communications, not the technology.
Video
Big Data, Data Analytics and Hadoop

What is Big Data

What is Hadoop
More about Hadoop

104
Business Intelligence and Analytics
Which tools are in use by
BCBSSC?
105
Benefits of Using Analytics
Video
106
The nature of the industry:
Online Retailers
BI Applications
Analysis of clickstream data
• Customer profitability analysis
• Customer segmentation analysis
• Product recommendations
• Campaign management
• Pricing
• Forecasting
•
•
Dashboards
Online retailers like Amazon.com and Overstock.com are examples of high volume operations who
rely on analytics to compete. As soon as you enter, their sites a cookie is placed on your PC and
all clicks are recorded. Based on your clicks and any search terms, recommendation engines
decide what products to display. After you purchase an item, they have additional information that
is used in marketing campaigns. Customer segmentation analysis is used in deciding what
promotions to send you. How profitable you are influences how the customer care center treats
you. A pricing team helps set prices and decides what prices are needed to clear out merchandise.
Forecasting models are used to decide how many items to order for inventory. Dashboards
monitor all aspects of organizational performance
The Internet of Things (IoT)
What is the Internet of Things?
 Definition
(1) The Internet of Things, also called The Internet of
Objects, refers to a wireless network between objects,
usually the network will be wireless and selfconfiguring, such as household appliances.
------Wikipedia
(2) By embedding short-range mobile transceivers
into a wide array of additional gadgets and everyday
items, enabling new forms of communication between
people and things, and between things themselves.
------World Summit on the Information Society 2005
What is the Internet of Things? continued
 Definition
(3) The term "Internet of Things" has come to describe
a number of technologies and research disciplines
that enable the Internet to reach out into the real world
of physical objects.
------IoT 2008
(4) “Things having identities and virtual personalities
operating in smart spaces using intelligent interfaces
to connect and communicate within social,
environmental, and user contexts”.
-------IoT in 2020
Predictions for The Internet of Things



According to Gartner there will be nearly 26 billion
devices on the Internet of Things by 2020
According to ABI Research more than 30 billion
devices will be wirelessly connected to the Internet
of Things (Internet of Everything) by 2020
Cisco created a dynamic "connections counter" to
track the estimated number of connected things
from July 2013 until July 2020
The Application of IoT: Shopping
(2) When shopping in the market,
the products will introduce
themselves.
(1) When entering the doors, scanners
will identify the tags on her clothing.
(4) When paying for the products, the
microchip in the credit card will
communicate with checkout reader.
(3) When selling the products, the reader
will tell the staff to restock the item.
The Application of IoT: Health Care
• New efficient diagnostics combined with nanotechnology
enabled lab-on-a-chip technologies open a complete range
of novel opportunities for new treatments and prevention of
serious diseases.
• In-vivo equipment will assist in drug dosage closer to the
affected organs thus reducing the amount of reagents
needed and diminish the risk of adverse effects.
• Several serious common illnesses such as breast cancer,
cardio-vascular diseases and Alzheimer's disease have
genetic components.
• It is also known that successful treatment depends on early
detection.
The Application of IoT: Health Care - continued
• Biodegradable materials will offer the possibility to place temporary
sensors and lab-on-a-chip equipment on the patient, or in the
patient.
• Temperature and humidity can be measured inside a cast to
prevent skin problems. Antigens may be detected on transplanted
organs to help prevent rejection.
• Intelligent micro-robots may be guided to bring drugs to the
infected areas by ex-vivo remote guidance, and assist in the
diagnosis providing located measurements of vital parameters.
• This new type of personal medical equipment will enable the
patient to stay longer and more safely at home since the
equipment itself can alarm the hospital in case of critical situations
• The patient can be relieved from the annoyance of routine
checks when there is nothing wrong.
• Medical research will advance on data from patients living normal
lives- not like guinea pigs in hospitals.
• Telemedicine may replace costly travel and reduce patient stress.
The Application of IoT: Intelligent Home
• Maintaining a comfortable temperature and heating water are the most
energy consuming tasks in the house with huge potentials for energy
conservation, and as a consequence a significant positive impact on the
environment.
• These activities will be controlled autonomously by house sensors
• There will be robots taking care of the house, performing routine works
such as cleaning or maintenance.
• These will collaborate autonomously with the house sensors, and
the house control.
• The intelligent appliances will collaborate to conserve energy, and
signal need for new supplies of food, detergents, maintenance, etc.
• Some of which may be satisfied automatically by the maintenance
robot.
• This will eliminate some of today’s tedious housekeeping activities.
The Application of IoT: Transportation
• When there is a logjam, the first cars may tell the cars behind that
there is an accident or just too much traffic.
• This will eventually make intelligent navigation systems re-plan
the route of cars programmed to travel already saturated roads.
• The car may help the driver keep a safe distance from the car in front,
and may refuse dangerous actions such as speeding if the weather
conditions are unsafe or overtaking if the oncoming car travels too
fast.
• Cars will travel by autopilot on highways reducing the risk of fatigue
related accidents.
• The car will also be able to maintain itself, calling for the appropriate
service based on the self diagnosis of the problem and ensuring that
the right replacement parts are in stock.
• The car will plan the time of service according to the diaries and
preferences of the usual driver and ensure that there is a substitute
car available if there would be a need for it.
Challenges in the Future of IoT





IoT will inherit the drawbacks of the current Internet
on an infinitely larger, but more invisible scale
Privacy – will be a huge issue when implementing
IoT
Identity - Online Fragmentation of Identity
Efficiency – speed - person loses identity and is an
IP address
Decisions – do we want to delegate our decision
making and freedom of choice to things and
machines?
Will IoT Benefit the World? (or NOT)

“A world where ‘things’ can automatically communicate
to computers and each other, providing services for the
benefit of human kind”
 Ian Smith (President AIM [formerly the Alternative Investment Market]
UK)

Peter-Paul Verbeek, professor of philosophy of
technology at the University of Twente, Netherlands,
writes that technology already influences our moral
decision making, which in turns affects human agency,
privacy and autonomy

He cautions against viewing technology merely as a human tool
and advocates instead to consider it as an active agent.
MODULE 4
The Innovators Dilemma
BlueCross and BlueShield
of South Carolina
The Rushing Center
Furman University
119
View the Lecture
The Opportunity and Threat of
Disruptive Technologies
Professor Clayton Christensen
Harvard Business School
120
Group Exercise
1.
Do you see disruptive technologies looming in
your industry?
2.
Are these threats or opportunities?
3.
What are the key characteristics of the
disruptive technologies that your company
faces?
4.
Are the technologies strategically significant?
5.
What are their initial markets?
6.
How could your company address these disruptive
technologies?
121
MODULE 5
Innovation Strategy
BlueCross and BlueShield
of South Carolina
The Rushing Center
Furman University
122
Elements of an Innovation Strategy I

Look for growth outside of, but not too far from, your
core business
 What jobs can existing customers not do?
 Who are your worst customers?
 Where are the barriers that constrain consumption?
123
Elements of an Innovation Strategy II

How can we serve this market?
 Existing solutions are too expensive, too complicated
or do not quite do the job
 The solution is good enough along traditional
dimensions, but superior in dimensions that matter
more to the customer
 The business model has low overhead and high asset
utilization, and therefore allows lower prices or smaller
markets
 Powerful incumbents are not interested in pursuing the
strategy initially
124
Elements of an Innovation Strategy III

Pursue innovative opportunities
 Create specific opportunities
 Focus on patterns rather than numbers


Make “number of zeros” estimates – Guess at impact
Execute and adapt
 Good enough can be great
 Step, don’t leap
 The right kind of failure is success.
Video
125
Group Exercise: Innovation and Organization
1.
Does having an organization that utilizes
specialists contribute to innovation?
2.
Do you think a company could better promote
innovation if it had a group specifically devoted
to innovation?
3.
What are some of the pros and cons of having
such a group?
126
Key Learning Outcomes
When you complete this course you will be able to:
1)
Contrast the evolutionary versus the revolutionary approach to technological
innovation.
2)
Distinguish between sustaining and disruptive technologies and innovations
3)
Discuss the elements of an innovation strategy.
4)
Give a brief description of the following emerging technologies/innovations:















Grid (distributed/utility) computing
Virtualization
The Cloud
Crowdsourcing
Social Networking and Social Analytics
Context Aware Computing
Data mining
Nanotechnology
Quantum computing
Bio Technology in computing
3-D Printing
Google’s Project Loon
Advanced Robotics
Big Data and Hadoop
The Internet of Things
127
WRAPPING UP!


Review of our original key
learning outcomes
Questions?
128
References
129



How Breakthroughs Happen, Andrew Hargadon,
Harvard Business School Press, 2003.
“The Change Leader,” Chapter 3 in Management
Challenges for the 21st Century, Peter Drucker,
Harper Business, New York, 2001.
Andrew Hargadon, an interview with the ACM online
journal Ubiquity, at
http://www.acm.org/ubiquity/interviews/v4i30_hargadon.html

Kathy Harris, Article on Gartner Blog found at:
http://blogs.gartner.com/kathy_harris/2009/04/28/innovation-andagility-two-do%E2%80%99s/

“Security in the Ether," David Talbot, MIT Technology
Review, February 2010.
130




The Innovators Dilemma, Clayton Christensen,
HarperBusiness Essentials, 2002 (originally published
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