Transcript CPR - Federchimica

The European Chemical Industry:
Cefic Economic Outlook June 2014
Dr Moncef HADHRI (Chief Economist)
Economic Affairs Manager
[email protected]
June 20, 2014
1
The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI)
rises further in the EU
•
•
The (ESI) is calculated as a
weighted average of five
confidence indicators, industry
(40%), services (30%),
consumers (20%),
construction (5%) and retail
trade (5%).
The ESI in May 2014 was well
above its long term average
(1990-2013) for the eighth
successive months since
September 2013
Source: European Commission survey and cefic analysis
Still the highest ESI value since 3 years (May 2011)
2
A non-stop improvement of EU consumer
confidence
•
•
EU consumers’ views on
future general economic
situation, the level of future
unemployment, and their
savings expectations
improved further
Consumer confidence was
far above its long term
average (1990-2013) for the
sixth consecutive months
since November 2013
Source: European Commission survey and cefic analysis
Confidence closed to the pre-crisis peak level (2007)
3
Confidence improved significantly in the EU chemicals
industry (blue line)
Assessment of order books and stock showed
favourable developments
4
EU capacity utilisation registered the
highest level since almost 3 years
Still only 0.5% below the long term average (1995-2012)
5
EU chemicals production rose for the
fourth successive quarter
But still 6% below the peak level of Q1-2008
6
Apart from petrochemicals, all EU chemicals sectors are
closed to their long term average
Consumer chemicals is far above its long term average
7
Apart from petrochemicals, all sectors experienced
output growth (y-o-y)
Source: Cefic EOTF (Economic Outlook Task Force) May 2014
8
Where will we be tomorrow?
“He who speaks about the future lies,
even when he tells the truth.”
(Proverb from Middle East)
World
Economic
Activity
Oil prices and
Energy costs
Trade
EX-Rates
European
Chemicals
Growth
Consumer
Confidence
Industrial
Development
Business
Climate
9
GDP outlook: 2014-2015
Source: Cefic EOTF (Economic Outlook Task Force) May 2014
10
Global industrial production showed more
dynamics than world economy
Production rose in the industrial countries, and all
major sectors contributed to growth
11
Where will we be tomorrow?
2013: - 0.2%, 2014: 2.0%, 2015: 1.5%
Outlook revised upward compared to October 2013
12