Transcript Document

Ordem e Progresso or
nem ordem, nem progresso?
Brazil Random Facts
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Portuguese Empire
Almost 200 million
Bigger than the lower 48 of the US
Invented the airplane?
Early Brazil
• Brazilian independence
• Imperial Brazil
• First Republic
Getulio Vargas
• 1930-1945
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Gaucho
Centralizes Brazilian poltics
Increase state intervention in economy
Estado Novo
First mass-based politics
Second Republic, 1945-1964
• Democratic politics
• ISI policies and related crises
• Juscelino Kubitschek, President 1956-1960.
The Brazilian Political System
in the Second Republic
• Weak President
– Majority veto override
– No decree power
• Complex Legislative System
– Multiparty, high fragmentation.
– Party-Switching
– Open-list proportional representation
Political System, Cont
• Net Result:
– Executive leadership difficult
– Pork and Vote-buying an essential part of
legislative coalitions.
Growing tensions
• Economic problems associated with ISI
• Stabilization program would alienate
workers and left.
• Polarization
• Military Thinking: ESG
– US helped to set up in 1949
Janio Quadros
• Janio Quadros
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Elected 1960
V-P Joao Goulart
Brilliant or crazy?
Resigns hoping for more power
Joao Goulart, V-P
• Will he become President?
– In communist China at the time of the coup
– Military despises him
– He flies home indirectly (China-Paris-RS)
• Solution: Parliamentary system?
– Weak President (Goulart)
– Tancredo Neves, Prime Minister
Goulart
• Regains full Presidential powers via
plebiscite, 1963
• Challenges
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Economic
Military Politics
Rural mobilization
Stalemate
• Coup d’Etat, 1964
– Was it really a coup?
New form of Authoritarianism
• Military Governments in Brazil
– Previously - clean house and leave
– This time…. they stayed until 1985
• “Bureaucratic Authoritarian” Regimes
– Authoritarian
– Bureaucratic - apolitical technocrats given
control.
Brazil’s military government
• Pseudo-Democracy
• Brutal - but not Argentina, not Chile?
• Castello Branco 64-67
– 1966 Elections and political parties
– ARENA and the MDB
• Costa e Silva 67-69 (hard-liner)
– Repression of labor and politicians
– AI-5
– Insurrection, crushed by 1973
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Year
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ar
82
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79
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69
68
67
66
65
64
Ye
Change in GDP
Brazilian GDP Change
20
15
10
5
0
Military Government, Cont
1970
1974
Inflation
18.2
31.5
Economic
Growth
8.8
9.8
World Cup
Brazil
West Germany
Election Results ARENA
MDB Gains
Seats
Central Features of the New
Republic
• The Party System
– Open-List Proportional Representation with
low barriers to entry.
• Inequality, clientelism, and patronage
politics.
• A Strong Presidency
• Federalism?
1. Brazil’s Party System
• Mass partisanship is extremely low, in contrast to
other countries.
• Many parties earn seats in Congress – usually more
than 20.
• Politician’s success has little relation to their
partisanship.
• Correlation between President and Deputy vote
shares is ….. 0
• Why?
Open List Proportional
Representation
X
Y
Z
Joao
25
Miriam
11
Dilma
14
Marta
3
Wigold
10
Gisela
13
Gabriela
2
Maria
7
Roberto
5
Sebastian
1
Jose
6
World Peace
2
Fernando
1
Itamar
2
Ulysses
1
32
36
31
Typical campaign ad, OLPR
Another OLPR Ad
Impact of the Party System
• President’s party never has a majority.
Lucky to get 20% of the seats in Congress.
• The other 80% of the seats are held by the
other 20 or so parties.
• So how does anyone get anything done in
Brazil?
• Presidency + $
2. Strong Presidency
• Executive has central role in budget, and
expenditures are “optional”.
• Executive has “decree authority” – can
write “medidas provisorias”, with
temporary force of law.
• Result: executive forms large multi-party
coalitions for governing, and uses decree
authority when necessary.
3. Inequality/Poverty a
prerequisite?
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Why do parties “sell out” so easily?
Greed
Poverty
“When it gets dark out there, it get’s really
dark”.
• Voters in many places don’t care about your
stand on world peace. They just want you to
get things done.
Some Perspective
• The legislature is fragmented, lacks
accountability – and is largely for sale.
• The executive uses pork and decree authority to
govern.
• In this sense, representation “works”. The most
important votes anyone casts are for the
Presidency.
• Key difference from 1946-1964: the legislature
is weaker.
4. Federalism?
• Brazil is divided into 27 states plus a federal
district
• Historically, state politics have spilled over
into national politics
• Those influences are still present for
legislators but much weaker for presidents.
• Evidence: roll-call votes, presidential tickets,
and reforms.
Recent Political History
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1985-1989: Jose Sarney (ARENA)
1989-1992: Fernando Collor (PRN)
1992-1994: Itamar Franco (PMDB)
1995-2002: Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)
2003-2010: Luiz “Lula” da Silva (PT)
2011- : Dilma Rousseff (PT)
Lula: Change or more of the same?
• Founding member of the Worker’s Party, 2nd grade
education, metal worker.
• As President:
– Multiple corruption scandals.
– Expands CCT’s to poor.
– Economic boom.
• Extremely popular with poor, extremely unpopular
with middle/upper
• New class cleavage or “rouba mais faz”?
New
Directions in
Research on
Brazil
• A worrisome
increase in
judicial
politicization.
New Directions
• The enduring problem of race
• The racial myth in Brazil is one of equality color
blind attitudes, and shared heritage.
• Brazil is more than 50% “black”
• Most of the afro-brazilians are poor. Most of the
elites are white
An Experiment
Not a Racial Myth?
No picture
White
Mixed
Black
Japanese
Treatment
.28
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.22
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Control
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.82
.78
.79
.79
n
151
160
145
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155
But with more choices…
White Subjects
Mixed Subjects
Black Subjects
C.
Race
White
Black
Diff
White
Black
Diff
White
Black
Diff
3
.20
.183
+.02
.20
.22
-.02
.11
.40
-.29
6
.22
.26
-.04
.23
.24
-.02
.30
.42
-.13
12
.21
.11
+.14
.19
.25
-.05
.17
.46
-.29
New Directions:
Brazil’s International Future
• Still struggles with a perverse combination
of pride and shame
• Desires a seat at the table (UN Sercurity
Council)
• But will struggle with conflicting themes:
nonalignment, anti-American, and
democracy.
My favorite punchline
• Everyone would love to have Brazil’s
problems.