Transcript Changes in Fuel Mix for Power Generation & Impacts on

Future Changes in Fuel Mix of
Electricity Generation in Hong Kong
and Implications
By
Larry Chuen-ho Chow
Professor, Department of Geography
Director, Hong Kong Energy Studies Centre
Hong Kong Baptist University
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1.
Hong Kong 2009 population 7.004 million
per capita GDP U.S. $29,401
-- Hong Kong does not produce any energy
-- 2009 Total Primary Energy Requirements (PER):
577,073 TJ (19.690 million tce)
Coal
Oil & Natural Gas
Nuclear Power
51.9%
43.2%
4.9%
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2. Dominant Role of Electricity in HK
Energy Economy
-- 2009 amount of coal, natural gas and oil products used
for power generation: 389,030 Tj
-- Total amount of coal, natural gas and oil products
consumed in HK: 548,780 Tj
Share of power generation: 70.9%
Fuel Mix of Final Energy Requirements (%)
Coal
Oil Products
Electricity
Towngas
---
42.4
48.7
8.9
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3. Maximum installed capacity
Peak demand
Local generation
Imports
Exports
Net Imports
Local consumption
12,624 MW
10,153 MW
139,420 Tj
41,725 Tj
13,432 Tj
28,293 Tj
149,366 Tj
Net imports as share of local consumption
20.3%
Sectoral Consumption of Electricity (%)
Domestic
26.1%
Commercial
66.4%
Industrial
7.5%
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4. Six Major Types of GHG
1.
2.
3.
4.-6.
CO2 most important
CH4
NOX
Synthetic Gases like HFC
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5.GHG Emissions by Sector, 2008
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6. Reduction in GHG Emissions, 2005-2020
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7. Fuel Mix for Power Generation
(%)
2009
2020
Coal
54
<10
Natural Gas
23
40
Nuclear
23
50
--
3-4
Renewable Energy
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8.


Two power companies in Hong Kong
CLP
Hong Kong Electric
Governed by a scheme of control for 10 years up to 2018
-- permitted return based on 9.99% of net fixed assets
-- 11.0% for investments in renewable energy
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9. Current Prices of Electricity (cents/kwh)
Nuclear
Coal-fired
Gas-fired
50
40-60
70-90
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10. Factors Affecting Future Electricity Tariff
A. Future Price of Different Fuels
-- Nuclear expected to be cheaper than gas-fired
power
-- Price of natural gas expected to rise and be volatile
B. Investments in new power plants and other infrastructures
-- New combined cycle plants
-- Transmission facilities
-- LNG terminal in Guangdong
(and nuclear power plant ?)
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11. Impacts on Energy Security
A. Security of nuclear power supply
i) Inability to store electricity
ii) Dedicated transmission line to Hong Kong
B. How much generation capacity to be
maintained in Hong Kong
C. Natural gas supply: No problem
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12. Use of Nuclear Power in World

2010 (Jan) 436 reactors in 30 states
-- Total installed capacity: 372 000MW
-- Provided 15% of world electricity

3/4 electricity nuclear: France
1/2 electricity nuclear: Belgium, Sweden
1/3 electricity nuclear: Finland, Germany, S. Korea,
Switzerland
1/4 electricity nuclear: Japan
1/5 electricity nuclear: Russia, Spain, USA
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12. Use of Nuclear Power in World (cont’)

53 reactors under construction
≈14% present installed capacity
141 reactors in planning stage
≈ 41% present installed capacity
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13. Use of Nuclear Power in HK
Daya Bay Plant

2 reactors plus Conghua pumped storage plant
-- total capacity 1968 MW
-- started in 1994
-- produced 14 billion kwh per year, 70% supplied to
HK
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14. Nuclear: No Air Pollution & GHG

Use of nuclear from Daya Bay reduced emission of
i) 7.5 million tons of CO2
ii) tens of thousand tons of SOx & NOx
iii) hundreds of tons of particulates
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15.Past GHG Emissions and Carbon Intensity, 1990-2008
Year
Total GHG emissions
(kilotonnes CO2-e)
Per capita emissions
(tonnes CO2-e)
Carbon Intensity
(kg CO2-e per HKD GDP)
1990
35 300
6.2
0.044
1991
38 800
6.7
0.046
1992
43 000
7.4
0.048
1993
43 400
7.4
0.046
1994
35 900
5.9
0.036
1995
36 900
6.0
0.036
1996
35 600
5.5
0.033
1997
34 100
5.3
0.030
1998
35 500
5.4
0.033
1999
33 300
5.0
0.031
2000
34 600
5.2
0.029
2001
34 700
5.2
0.029
2002
36 200
5.4
0.030
2003
39 600
5.9
0.032
2004
39 800
5.9
0.030
2005
42 000
6.2
0.029
2006
42 300
6.2
0.027
2007
43 300
6.3
0.026
2008
42 000
6.0
0.025
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16. Resurgence in Use of Nuclear Since 1990s

Concern about Global Warming

USA: New Plants began to be ordered since ThreeMile-Island Accident

U.K.: Building new plants

Germany: Decided to extend life of existing ones
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17. Safety of Nuclear Power

Apart from Windscale, Three-mile-Island &
Chernobyl, no serious accidents

Exceptionally stringent operational procedures &
well trained staff

Each important control has a back-up system

Strong concrete structure
Pressure vessel in stainless steel
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18. Costs of Nuclear Power

Affected by many factors
i) safety coefficient needed
ii) interest costs
iii) insurance costs
iv) waste disposal costs
v) decommissioning costs
vi) price of uranium
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END
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