Transcript Coteminas
Non-oil export business in Nigeria
Impact of Incentives on Agribiz
Presented by
Creating Value is our business
Olam Nigeria Ltd.
November 2012
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Contents
1
Introduction
2
Prospects
3
Impact of EEG
4
Need for incentives
5
Challenges faced by Nigerian exporters
6
Way forward
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1
Introduction
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Introduction
This presentation highlights the potential of developing the non-oil export sector in
Nigeria and challenges faced by the non-oil sector
The focus areas of this presentation are:
Review of recent surveys by international development agencies
Need for diversification of the economy
Significance of the agro-allied sector
Growth of non-oil exports in last 10 years
Policy somersaults faced by the private sector
Realisation of the Transformation Agenda hinges on economic diversification
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2
Prospects
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Nigeria‘s long-term economic potential
Agribusiness has tremendous growth potential given right policy framework
According to a widely read study by Mckinsey,only 1/3rd of Africa’s arable land is
cultivated. Africa needs to create jobs at a faster pace to absorb its growing labour force
The same study identifies 3 key sectors with highest employment potential
a) Agriculture
b) Manufacturing
c) Retail & hospitality
Agriculture accounts for 40 % of Nigeria’s GDP and 2/3rd of employment
Existing low agri productivity provides huge headroom to grow
Federal government Agriculture Transformation Agenda provides an impetus to
realization of Nigerian growth potential in food and cash crops
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Nigeria‘s long-term economic potential
Agribusiness has tremendous growth potential given right policy framework
Nigeria – richly endowed with fertile land
Long history of cash crops cultivation – cocoa, cotton, cashew
Agricultural production more difficult to migrate than manufacturing
Agricultural products – demand is relatively stable and resilient even in recessions and
financial crisis
Supply chain and infrastructure deficiency – can be mitigated with policy intervention
Huge job/livelihood creation and wealth creation potential
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Nigeria‘s long-term economic potential
There are several transformation opportunities in agric sector
Oil-Palm – large domestic market, good soil and climate challenge of security, long
gestation
Cotton : provide jute bags to farmers better quality and higher farm realisations
Bio-fuel: Potential to replace imports and be an export base. Policy framework
required
Rice : import substitution as well export into regional ECOWAS markets over the long
term clearly articulated long term policy on tariff and investment incentives
Sugar: development of industrial scale sugarcane farming to address local
consumption Sugar masterplan – a way forward !
Farm Yield and Quality: Nigeria lags behind other West African countries. WA
countries lag behind Asian/Latin American region. Bridging this gap can create
transformational growth in the sector.
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3
Impact of EEG
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EEG Impact - Agric sector
Growth in crop size( 10%- 25% per year) – Sesame, Cocoa , Cashew
Growth in Farmer Incomes- across almost all products
Farm-gate prices as % age of FOB values are highest in West Africa for
agricultural-crops like cocoa, sesame, cashew etc.
Multiplier Effect of 2.36 as per USDA on agricultural exports –> 70% of
non-oil exports is agric high knock-on +ve impact in GDP and
employment
Farming is turning from subsistence to commercial in export led sectors
(cocoa/cashew/sesame etc,)
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EEG Impact – Case Study - Sesame
Crop volumes have grown almost 3 times in 5 years
65000 MT (2005-06 ) to 180,000 MT (2011-12)
Farmer incomes have trebled
Average Naira 50000 / MT (2005) to 165000 / MT (2010)
Farmer realization ~ 85% of CNF price( higher than Ethiopia and Sudan etc)
Export profile shifting from natural seeds to de-hulled sesame seeds – greater
export revenue, greater local value addition, more investments, more local jobs,
Diversifying markets – Far East , Middle East, Europe & USA
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Nigeria‘s non-oil export growth
Nigeria’s non-oil exports have grown 300% in the last 6 years(2005-11)
growing at a CAGR of 25%
Nigeria's Non-oil Exports(US$ billion)
3
2.8
2.5
2.3
2
1.8
1.5
1.9
Exports ($ mn)
Bn)
Exports($
1.3
1
1
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
1999
2000
2001
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source :Cobalt/NEPC shipment statistics
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Nigeria‘s non-oil export growth
Agro-allied products drive Nigeria’s non-oil exports with Cocoa and leather
contributing about 50% of total exports
Product wise market share of non-oil exports: 2011 (%)
Leather
Cocoa
Cocoa
Cotton
Series1, Plastic footwear,
55, 2%
Series1, Aluminium, 76, 3%
Series1, Others, 516,
19%
Cashew
Rubber
Series1, Cocoa, 832,
30%
Series1, Tobacco, 76, 3%
Leather
Shrimps
Sesame seed
Tobacco
Series1, Sesame seed,
200, 7%
Series1, Cotton, 71, 2% Aluminium
Plastic footwear
Series1, Shrimps, 54, 2%
Series1, Leather, 500,
18%
Series1,
Rubber,
285, 10%
Series1, Cashew, 100, 4%
Others
Source: Cobalt/NEPC
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4
Need for incentives
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Incentives are needed to offset competitive cost disadvantages
faced by Nigerian exporters
Nigerian cocoa exporters face a disadvantage even after taking EEG
into account(1/2)
Factors
USD/MT
Power cost disadvantage in processing
30
Additional port charges
10
Additional freight charges
10
Additional finance cost @ 8% p.a.
200
Disadvantage on account of low
productivity(yield/ha)
350
Import duty imposed in EU due to nonsigning of EPA by Nigeria
180
(A) Total disadvantage
(B)
EEG Benefit at full rate
(C)
Net benefit to exporter (A-B)
USD/MT
780
900
120
Subsidy available in Ivory Coast
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USD/MT
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Incentives are needed to offset competitive cost disadvantages
faced by Nigerian exporters
Nigerian cocoa and cashew exporters face a distinct cost disadvantage
Cost disadvantage faced by Nigerian cashew processors
Cost/MT (US$)
Ivory Coast
Tanzania
Nigeria
FOB charges
21
17
30
Fuel & Energy
3
3
10
205
190
370
Wages
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5
Challenges faced by
Nigerian exporters
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Constraints faced by Nigerian exporters
• The government policy encourages diversification of the economy by boosting
non-oil exports. Incentives in the form of export grant are given to cushion the
impact of infrastructural disadvantages and high cost of doing business in Nigeria
• However, there is a need to improve the implementation of the policy to realize the
full potential of the non-oil sector
• Major challenges facing the non-oil export sector are
• Inconsistency in implementation of export incentive policy – frequent interruptions
• restrictions by customs to accept NDCCs
• Lack of appreciation of the contribution of the non-oil export sector to the economy
• Loss of preferential market access to EU due to non-signing of EPA
• Present system only allows payment after 1 year of export – causes delays
• Erosion of the benefit due to climbing discounts of NDCCs
• Nigeria was ranked 127 among 142 countries in terms of competitiveness (2012)
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Constraints faced by Nigerian exporters
Policy instability and discontinuity have weakened the non-oil export sector and
is affecting Nigeria’s image as a reliable international trading partner
The value of non-oil exports increased by 37.1% attributed to
„
improvement in production,processing and packaging of Nigeria‘s
products...........
Despite this development the non-oil export subsector performed
dismally accounting for only 3.6% of the total exports due to poor
Infrastructure,policy slippages and volatility of commodity prices.“
CBN Annual Report 2010 (P 146)
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6
Way forward
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Conclusions
Non-oil export promotion by way of incentives (EEG) should be sustained
1 Realization of government’s Transformation Agenda depends on
diversification of the economy
2 Non-oil exports have increased by 300% during 2005-11 investments, job
creation – growth much higher than Nig GDP growth rate
3 EEG is required to cushion the effect of infrastructural and other
disadvantages faced by Nigerian exporters
Need to have more effective inter-ministerial coordination on implementation
4
of policies by relevant agencies
5
Affirm clear and strong commitment to the incentive policy(no policy can be
perfect) for 5-7 years and review every 5 years to refine/improve – to attract
long term and big ticket investments
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Thank You
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