Transcript 1．本調査の意義

International Workshop
for Interactive Analysis on Economy and Environment
Cabinet Office, Government of Japan, 4 March 2006
Long-term, Multi-sectoral Model
for Interaction on Economy and
Environment of Japan
Masaru Aoki
(Japan Research Institute)
1. Model
（1） Overview of the Long-term, Multi-sectoral Model
It’s the Dynamic utility optimization model (basically linear
model). In this model, people get the utility from
consumption only.
Economy has the multi-sector, and is also possible to
have the several activities (substitutive activity) in each
sector. Economy has the multi-sector, and is also possible
to have the several activities (substitutive activity) in each
sector.
It can be described the future technology as the change of
the capital, labor input and intermediate inputs coefficients.
It’s assumed to be the perfect-foresight.
1
（1） Overview of the Long-term, Multi-sectoral Model
The several constraints can be introduced to this model,
including the environmental ones. Thus, we can analyze
the interaction between economy and environment.
We can analyze several cases of different environmental
constraints and compare the results (GDP path and
industrial structure etc) by using this model.
The results of the simulation are not characterized as
forecast. They are to be regarded as possible and desirable
states of economy which satisfy the economic constraints.
2
（2）Structure of the Model
See “List of Equations Long-term Multi-sectoral Model”
in detail.
Production function
each sector and
activity
・labor
・capital
(classified by goods)
・intermediate inputs
(classified by goods)
optimal allocation
・sectors
・activities
・intertemporal
upper limit to CO2
Labor supply
CO2 emissions
Intermediate
inputs
Domestic
products
capital
formulation
Supply=demand
(each goods)
imports
final consumption
exports
discount rate
Balance of international
payments
Rate of change in the
upper limit to imports
utility
(each term)
Total Utility
Imports price
exports price
Rate of change in the
upper limit to exports
Maximization
profit for net external assets
Net external assets
：exogenous variables
Ｒeal profit ratio for net
external assets
Final value for net
external assets
3
（3）Classification of Industrial Sectors and Goods
4
（4）Initial Data
The most of the data is based on Input-Output
Matrix(2000).
Capital stock data is based on JIP（Japan Industry
Productivity ） Database created by Economic and Social
Research Institute (ESRI).
See Table1 – Table 9 in detail.
5
（5）Common setting
1 term = 5 years. We make the simulation through the 10
terms(2001-2050).
We assume the only labor productivity is increasing in the
future (ie. rate of labor inputs coefficient is decreasing.) See
Table 8. Intermediate inputs and capital coefficient are nochanged.
Total CO2 emissions = emissions from final consumption +
emissions from the intermediate input of fuels
CO(t): N(t) = ALFA(t) × ΣD(t,k) + Σ Σ Σ BETA(t,j,i) × A(t,j,i) × VU(t,k,j,i)
k=1
k=1 i=1 j=1
(20)
ALFA(t) and BETA(t,j,i) are CO2 intensity, which are calculated from
Japanese NAMEA’s Data(2000). See table 9. Both are constant over
term.
6
（6）Business As Usual (BAU) setting
All sectors have only one activity.
No CO2 constraint.
The emissions trading system does not exist.
7
（7）Extensions
Based on the BAU case, we consider the following
extensions.
1) CO2 emissions constraint
i) imposing the normal CO2 constraint each term
ii) introducing the borrowing system
2) Substitutive activities
i) introducing the energy‐saving activities to all the
sectors
ii) Electricity sector is divided into five activities which
have a different technology of power generation
iii) introducing the popularization of “the electric cars”
with “ the hydrogen stations”
8
1) CO2 emissions constraint
i) imposing the normal CO2 constraint each term
CT(t): N(t)  TM × CO2(t)
Domestic emissions  Upper limit to emissions
(21-1)
CO2(t): Upper limit to CO2 emissions (1,000 tons of CO2/year)
TM: Number of years for one period ; five years
Upper limit CO2(t) is the target emissions level 1,126,000
thousand tons-CO2 (energy related CO2 plus CO2 from
non energy sources) in 2010 from the Kyoto protocol .
It’s constant over term.
9
1) CO2 emissions constraint
ii) introducing the borrowing system
Under the borrowing system, if the CO2 emissions exceed
each term limit of it, it’s no problem. In that case, it will be
charged as penalty against excess amounts, and will be
counted as next term CO2 emissions.
For example, under the normal CO2 emissions constraint,
even if there exists the technology which could reduce
large amounts of CO2 emissions, it would often be
impossible to invest for the technology because investment
will increase the CO2 emissions, and it would go beyond
the limit.
However, under the borrowing system, it is possible to
invest for the CO2 reducing technology, because the CO2
emissions constraint would be abated by the introduction of
10
the borrowing.
1) CO2 emissions constraint
ii) introducing the borrowing system
The formulations of the borrowing system are as follows:
EQFL: FL(T) = N(T) - TM×CO2(T) ＋(FL(T-1)+ Max(FL(T-1),0) × ξ)
Except for t = 1.
(21-2-1)
BR: FL(T) = 0
only t = Final period applies.
(21-2-2)
ξis penalty 30% for 5 years (from COP 11 on December 2005).
We assume that it’s constant over term.
Compared to (21-1), this case restricts to only the final term
but allowed exhaustion of total CO2 emissions are equal
to both case.
The model is changed from linear to nonlinear by this
constraint, so that it’s harder to solve the problem
technically.
11
2) Substitutive activities
i) introducing the energy‐saving activities to all the sectors
The Energy‐saving activity (second activity) has the 10%
smaller intermediate inputs coefficient of “Petroleum
products” , “Coal product” and “Electricity”, compared to
the first activity.
It also has the 10% smaller CO2 intensity, compared to
first activity.
Capital and labor input coefficients of the second activity
are the same as the first activity’s.
Second activity has no initial capital stock.
12
2) Substitutive activities
ii) Electricity sector is divided into five activities which
have a different technology of power generation
The five activities are “Coal”, “Crude oil”, “Natural gas”,
“Nuclear power” and “Water and wind power”.
These also have the different intermediate inputs
coefficient and CO2 intensity. The power generation of
“Nuclear power” and “Water and wind power” don’t
exhaust the CO2. See Table10 and 11.
Water and wind power generation have capacity
constraints (refer to “Technology strategic map” Ministry of
Economy, Trade and Industry, 2005)
Nuclear power’s share is given by the scenario (refer to “A
Survey of the Energy Balance in 2030” Sogo Shigen
Energy Chosakai, 2005). The share is the 0.32 until 2015,
13
0.47 after then.
2) Substitutive activities
iii) introducing the popularization of “the electric cars”
with “ the hydrogen stations”
The third activity of the “Road transport” sector is
“the electric cars”, which does not exhaust the CO2.
The intermediate inputs of them are the same as normal
cars (first activity), except for the fuel to run. They need the
hydrogen and hydrogen stations, instead of the petroleum
products and the gas stations (adds the “hydrogen”
and “hydrogen stations” to sector and goods).
We assume that the electric cars are not used until 2015
because it takes a long time to popularize such the
innovative technology.
14
２．Simulation Analysis
(1) Cases
Case
Name
Note
1
Business as usual (BAU)
No CO2 constraint and
Substitutive activities
2
Normal CO2 constraint
Case1
+ normal CO2 constraint
3
Energy‐saving activities
Case2
+ energy‐saving activities
4
The electric cars
Case3
+ the electric cars with the
hydrogen stations
5
Borrowing system
Case4
+borrowing system instead of
the normal CO2 constraint
15
（2） The Results
i） Macro indicators
Figure1　G D P
BAU
1,000,000
1 B illion Yen
900,000
N orm alC O 2
constraint
800,000
700,000
Energy‐
saving
activities
600,000
The electric
cars
500,000
400,000
1
2
3
4
5
6
Term
7
8
9
10
B orrow ing
16
（2） The Results
i） Macro indicators
Figure2 D eviation from norm alC O 2 constraint case
140,000
120,000
100,000
GDP
80,000
+T he electric cars
saving activities
+Energy‐
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-20,000
Term
17
（2） The Results
i） Macro indicators
Figure3　C O 2 Em issions
1 thousand ｔ
on-C O 2
BAU
2,400,000
2,200,000
2,000,000
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
N orm alC O 2
constraint
Energy‐saving
activities
The electric
cars
B orrow ing
1
2
3
4
5
6
Term
7
8
9
10
18
（2） The Results
i） Macro indicators
Total Utility
BAU
Normal CO2 constraint
Energy‐saving activities
The electric cars
Borrowing
58.54
46.69
51.30
52.22
47.96
19
（2） The Results
ii） GDP classified by industrial sectors
P ulp,paper and paper products
A griculture,forestry and fishing
2.00%
BAU
1.90%
1.80%
N orm alC O 2
constraint
Energy‐
saving
activities
The electric
cars
B orrow ing
1.70%
1.60%
1.50%
1.40%
1.30%
1.20%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1.00%
0.90%
0.80%
0.70%
0.60%
0.50%
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
10
BAU
N orm alC O 2
constraint
Energy‐saving
activities
The electric
cars
B orrow ing
1
2
3
4
3.50%
BAU
3.00%
2.50%
N orm alC O 2
constraint
2.00%
Energy‐
saving
activities
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
The electric
cars
0.00%
B orrow ing
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
6
7
8
9
10
N on-m etalic m ineralproducts
C hem icals
1
5
9
10
1.00%
0.90%
0.80%
0.70%
0.60%
0.50%
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
BAU
N orm alC O 2
constraint
Energy‐
saving
activities
The electric
cars
B orrow ing
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
20
（2） The Results
ii） GDP classified by industrial sectors
M ining
P etroleum products
1.00%
0.90%
0.80%
0.70%
0.60%
0.50%
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
BAU
N orm alC O 2
constraint
Energy‐
saving
activities
The electric
cars
B orrow ing
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1.30%
1.20%
1.10%
1.00%
0.90%
0.80%
0.70%
0.60%
0.50%
0.40%
0.30%
10
BAU
N orm alC O 2
constraint
Energy‐
saving
activities
The electric
cars
B orrow ing
1
2
3
4
5
0.10%
0.09%
0.08%
0.07%
0.06%
0.05%
0.04%
0.03%
0.02%
0.01%
0.00%
BAU
N orm alC O 2
constraint
3
4
5
6
7
8
8
9
10
9
10
3.00%
BAU
2.50%
N orm alC O 2
constraint
2.00%
Energy‐
saving
activities
1.50%
Energy‐
saving
activities
The electric
cars
1.00%
The electric
cars
B orrow ing
2
7
B asic m etal
C oalproducts
1
6
B orrow ing
0.50%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
21
（2） The Results
ii） GDP classified by industrial sectors
Electricalm achinery,
equipm ent and supplies
M achinery
4.00%
BAU
3.50%
N orm alC O 2
constraint
3.00%
2.50%
Energy‐
saving
activities
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
5.00%
BAU
4.50%
N orm alC O 2
constraint
4.00%
3.50%
Energy‐
saving
activities
3.00%
The electric
cars
2.50%
B orrow ing
1.50%
The electric
cars
2.00%
B orrow ing
1
10
2
3
4
2.00%
1.80%
1.60%
1.40%
1.20%
1.00%
0.80%
0.60%
0.40%
0.20%
0.00%
BAU
N orm alC O 2
constraint
Energy‐
saving
activities
The electric
cars
B orrow ing
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
6
7
8
9
10
P recision instrum ent
Transport equipm ent
1
5
10
1.00%
0.90%
0.80%
0.70%
0.60%
0.50%
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
BAU
N orm alC O 2
constraint
Energy‐saving
activities
The electric
cars
B orrow ing
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
22
（2） The Results
ii） GDP classified by industrial sectors
Food products and beverages
Textiles
0.50%
BAU
0.40%
4.00%
BAU
3.50%
0.30%
N orm alC O 2
constraint
Energy‐saving
activities
3.00%
0.20%
Energy‐
saving
activities
0.10%
The electric
cars
2.50%
The electric
cars
B orrow ing
0.00%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
N orm alC O 2
constraint
B orrow ing
2.00%
10
1
2
3
4
5
4.00%
BAU
3.50%
Energy‐saving
activities
7.00%
2.00%
The electric
cars
5.00%
B orrow ing
1.50%
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
BAU
9.00%
2.50%
4
9
10.00%
3.00%
3
8
11.00%
N orm alC O 2
constraint
2
7
C onstruction
O thers m anufacturing
1
6
N orm alC O 2
constraint
8.00%
Energy‐
saving
activities
6.00%
The electric
cars
4.00%
B orrow ing
3.00%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
23
（2） The Results
ii） GDP classified by industrial sectors
G as and w ater supply
Electricity
2.00%
BAU
1.80%
N orm alC O 2
constraint
1.60%
1.40%
1.20%
1.00%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
BAU
1.10%
1.00%
N orm alC O 2
constraint
0.90%
Energy‐
saving
activities
0.80%
The electric
cars
0.60%
B orrow ing
0.80%
1.20%
Energy‐
saving
activities
0.70%
The electric
cars
0.50%
B orrow ing
0.40%
1
10
2
3
4
5
Finance and insurance
BAU
6.00%
5.00%
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
8
9
10
10
13.00%
BAU
N orm alC O 2
constraint
12.00%
Energy‐saving
activities
11.00%
Energy‐saving
activities
The electric
cars
10.00%
The electric
cars
B orrow ing
4.00%
2
7
R ealestate
7.00%
1
6
N orm alC O 2
constraint
B orrow ing
9.00%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
24
（2） The Results
ii） GDP classified by industrial sectors
R oad transport
Transport and com m unications
2.20%
9.00%
BAU
8.00%
N orm alC O 2
constraint
7.00%
6.00%
5.00%
4.00%
3.00%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2.00%
N orm alC O 2
constraint
1.90%
Energy‐
saving
activities
1.80%
The electric
cars
1.60%
B orrow ing
BAU
2.10%
Energy‐saving
activities
1.70%
The electric
cars
1.50%
B orrow ing
1.40%
1
10
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Service activities
W holesale and retailtrade
18.00%
22.00%
BAU
17.00%
N orm alC O 2
constraint
16.00%
Energy‐saving
activities
15.00%
The electric
cars
B orrow ing
14.00%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
BAU
21.00%
20.00%
N orm alC O 2
constraint
19.00%
Energy‐saving
activities
18.00%
17.00%
The electric
cars
16.00%
B orrow ing
15.00%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
25
（2） The Results
ii） GDP classified by industrial sectors
P ublic adm inistration,education,m edicalcare etc.
15.00%
BAU
14.00%
13.00%
N orm alC O 2
constraint
12.00%
Energy‐
saving
activities
11.00%
The electric
cars
B orrow ing
10.00%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
hydrogen
hydrogen stations
0.10%
0.09%
0.08%
0.07%
0.06%
0.05%
0.04%
0.03%
0.02%
0.01%
0.00%
The electric
cars
B orrow ing
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0.10%
0.09%
0.08%
0.07%
0.06%
0.05%
0.04%
0.03%
0.02%
0.01%
0.00%
The electric
cars
B orrow ing
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
26
（2） The Results
iii） Activities (Case3 and Case4)
Case3(Energy-Saving Activity): Output
Electricity
A llSectors
1,400,000
14,000
1,200,000
12,000
activity1
1,000,000
10,000
800,000
8,000
600,000
6,000
activity2
(enegysaving
activity)
400,000
200,000
C oal
C rude oil
N aturalgas
4,000
N uclear pow er
2,000
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
W ater and w ind
pow er
27
（2） The Results
iii） Activities (Case3 and Case4)
Case4(The electric cars): Output
Electricity
A llsectors
14,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
12,000
activity1
1,000,000
10,000
800,000
8,000
600,000
6,000
activity2(eneg
y-saving
activity)
400,000
200,000
C oal
C rude oil
N aturalgas
4,000
N uclear pow er
2,000
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
W ater and
w ind pow er
R oad transport
30,000
activity1
25,000
20,000
activity2(eneg
y-saving
activity)
15,000
10,000
5,000
activity3(the
electric cars)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
28
3．Other Simulations
(1)The emissions trading with normal CO2
constraint case
MXN
BPP(t): Σ (E(t,k)  M(t,k)) * P(t,k) = IZ(t)  BCON + JZ(t)
(13)
K=1
CT(t): N(t) － CR(t) × J(t)  TM × CO2(t)
(21-1)’
JZ(t): Value of net emission right purchase(\1 billion)
CR(t): Conversion coefficient for the emissions trading (1,000 tons of
CO2/\1 billion)
In this model, if emission right price is not so expensive
(over 300,000yen), the result (GDP path) of this case is the
almost same as BAU’s one by purchasing the emission
right.
29
(1)The emissions trading with normal CO2
constraint case
C O 2 Em issions
GDP
BAU
1,000,000
900,000
2,200,000
800,000
N orm alC O 2
constraint
700,000
600,000
em issions trading
(price=3,000yen)
500,000
1 thousand ｔ
on-C O 2
1 B illion Y en
BAU
2,400,000
2,000,000
N orm alC O 2
constraint
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
em issions trading
(price=3,000yen)
1,200,000
1,000,000
400,000
1
2
3
4
5
6
Term
7
8
9
10
em issions trading
(price=30,000yen)
800,000
1
2
3
4
5 6
Term
7
8
9
10
em issions trading
(price=30,000yen)
30
(1)The emissions trading with normal CO2
constraint case
However, the required value of net emission right purchase
in order to achieve almost same GDP path with BAU's is as
follows:
Case1: Emission right price = 3,000yen/ Case2: Emission right price = 30,000yen/
1ton of CO2
1ton of CO2
31
4．Concluding Remarks
Issue for the future:
Colleting appropriate information about future technology
and reflecting to capital, labor input and intermediate
inputs coefficients.
Introduction to more environmental improved technology.
Try to reflect the energy-saving effects to the consumer
(at this moment, energy saving is only reflecting to the
production sector).
Updating and improving about the borrowing analysis.
32