Transcript Poland International Trade

Poland
International Trade
Background History
-Poland is located in the northern
portion of central Europe
-The capital of Poland is Warsaw.
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/pl.html
Background History
 Size: 312,685 km (slightly smaller than New Mexico)
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Land: 304,465 km
Water: 8,220 km
 Coastline: 491 km (Baltic Sea)
 Terrain: Mostly flat, mountainous along southern border
 Major Natural Resources: coal, sulfur, copper, and
silver.
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/pl.html
Background History
 Population: 38,635,144 (2004)
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Age 0-14= 16.7%
Age 15-64= 70.3%
Age 65+= 13%
Population Growth Rate: .03%
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Hungary’s= -.26%, Czech Republic= -.05%, Germany= 0%,
Belarus= -.09, Ukraine= -.63%, Lithuania= -.3, Slovakia= .15%
Life Expectancy: 74.74 years old
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/pl.html
Government
 Type: Republic
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Divided into 16 provinces
President elected by open elections
Bi-cameral legislature
Senate (100 seats)
 Sejm (460 seats)
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http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/pl.html
International Trade
 1945-1970: Communist government restricts trade to only Soviet
countries.
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Poland became very dependent on Soviet Union.
 1971-1980: Government restricts all western European trade.
 1981-1990: Poland becomes the fifth largest ship producer in the
world.
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Was most of Poland’s entire trade
Export mostly to Soviet Union
 1986- Poland amends laws and allows bonds to be sold to
foreign investors.
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State enterprises were allowed to issue bonds and join joint ventures
with foreign investment.
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Did not raise FDI enough to see any change
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/commandingheights/lo/countries/pl/pl_trade.html
International Trade in
Transition
 1989- 2 tier banking system created
 The Law on Economic Activity
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Small step to correct rising inflation
 1990-1991: “Shock Therapy” opens up trade markets.
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Significant increases in FDI and Trade % of GDP
Increased the previously falling real GDP
Corrected the out of control inflation
Laws making it safer for foreign investors were put in place
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Foreign investors mostly only invested if they received management
rights
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/commandingheights/lo/countries/pl/pl_trade.html
Trade Organizations
 PHARE signed in 1989
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Designed to bring aid from European Communities to Poland and
Hungary
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Assist with political change and new markets
First step in eventual admittance to EU
 The Efta-Poland free trade agreement
 Signed in Geneva, Switzerland on 10 December 1992, came into
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effect Sept. 1, 1994.
Main Objective

To enhance the development of world trade by removing international
trade barriers.
http://intl.econ.cuhk.edu.hk/rta/index.php?did=24
Trade Organizations
 World Trade Organization
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
July 1, 1995
Increase of Trade % of GDP after joining
 European Union (2004)
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Poland’s foreign trade policy changed drastically after
joining the EU.
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Poland was in direct connection with the economically successful
western European Countries.
Tightened tariffs and increased customs controls on the eastern
border which is the external border of the European Union.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/commandingheights/lo/countries/pl/pl_trade.html
Economics
Real GDP
300,000,000,000.00
250,000,000,000.00
200,000,000,000.00
Poland GDP
150,000,000,000.00
100,000,000,000.00
50,000,000,000.00
Year
http://devdata.worldbank.org.proxy.lib.ohio-state.edu/dataonline/
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
-
1984
Real GDP Value (US $)
 Poland’s real GDP has steadily
risen in the past 25 years since
fall of Communism.
 Drop between 1988-1990 from
political instability.
 Avg. real GDP growth Rate=
3.5%
 Current real GDP growth
Rate= 5%
Economics
Annual Growth %
GDP per capita growth (annual %)
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
(2.00) 1
9
92 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 000 001 002 003 004
9
9
(4.00)1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
(6.00)
Poland
World
European Union
(8.00)
Year
•Poland’s growth rate negative initially due to political and economic reform.
•Poland has had a higher growth rate annually than the world’s avg. and EU avg.
•Except 2001
•Direct relation with increase in real GDP
http://devdata.worldbank.org.proxy.lib.ohiostate.edu/dataonline/
Total Exports & Imports
 Total Exports (2005)
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$ 92,720,000,000
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31st largest in the world
 Total Imports (2005)
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$95,670,000,000
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28th largest in the world
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/pl.html
Exports
 Main Export Partners
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European Union- 70.5%
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Germany- 30%
Italy- 6.1%
France- 6%
UK- 5.4%
Czech Republic- 4.3%
Netherlands- 4.3%
Rest of World- 29.5%
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Russia, Hong Kong, United States
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/pl.html
http://www.foreigntradeexchange.com/countries/poland.html
Imports
 Main Import Partners
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European Union- 65%
Germany- 24.4%
 France- 6.7%
 Italy- 8.5%
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Rest of World- 35%
Russia- 7.3%
 China- 4.6%
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http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/pl.html
http://www.foreigntradeexchange.com/countries/poland.html
Division of Trade
 Division of Trade (2 major divisions)
 Merchandise Exports/Imports
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Agriculture (raw materials)
 Crude materials except fuels, Livestock
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Food
 Exports- Potatoes, fruit, wheat
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Fuel
 Mostly from Russia
 Oil, natural gas
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Manufactures
 Export- Machinery, transport equipment, other misc. manufactured items
 Import- Chemicals, medicine, cars/motorcycles
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Ores & metals
 Crude fertilizers, minerals, scrap metal, glass
http://devdata.worldbank.org.proxy.lib.ohio-state.edu/dataonline/
Merchandise Exports/Imports
Agricultrue (raw materials)
Food
Fuel
Manufactures
Ores & Metals
Other
% of Merchandise Exports/Imports
% of Exports
$ Amount
% of Imports
2
$ 1,075,237,600.00
2
8
$ 4,300,950,400.00
5
4
$ 2,150,475,200.00
9
81
$ 43,547,122,800.00
80
4
$ 2,150,475,200.00
3
1
$
537,618,800.00
1
Total
$ 53,761,880,000.00
% Merchandise Exports
1%
4%
81%
Agricultrue (raw
materials)
Food
2% 8%
4%
Fuel
$ Amount
$
1,365,444,200.00
$
3,413,610,500.00
$
6,144,498,900.00
$ 54,617,768,000.00
$
2,048,166,300.00
$
682,722,100.00
$
% Merchandise Imports
1%
3%
68,272,210,000.00
Agricultrue (raw
materials)
Food
2% 5%
9%
Fuel
Manufactures
Manufactures
Ores & Metals
Ores & Metals
Other
http://devdata.worldbank.org.proxy.lib.ohio-state.edu/dataonline/
80%
Other
Commercial Service
Exports/Imports
 Commercial Service Exports/Imports
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Computers/Communications and Services
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Insurance & Financial Services
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Freight insurance, life insurance, foreign exchange transactions
Transport Services
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International telecommunications, postal, construction, all
services-financial
Anything relating to the carriage of passengers or movement of
freight
Travel Services
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Goods and services consumed by travelers
 Lodging, meals
Commercial Service
Exports/Imports
% of Commercial Service Exports/Imports
% of Exports
$ Amount
% of Imports
Computer, Communications
24
$ 2,680,800,000.00
45
Insurance % Financial Services
3
$
335,100,000.00
7
Transport Services
36
$ 4,021,200,000.00
22
Travel Services
36
$ 4,021,200,000.00
27
Other
1
$
111,700,000.00
Total
$ 11,170,000,000.00
% Commercial Service Exports
$ 10,526,000,000.00
% Commercial Service Imports
Computer,
Communications
1%
24%
36%
3%
Insurance %
Financial Services
$ Amount
$ 4,736,700,000.00
$
736,820,000.00
$ 2,315,720,000.00
$ 2,842,020,000.00
Computer,
Communications
27%
44%
Transport Services
Insurance %
Financial Services
Transport Services
Travel Services
36%
22%
Other
http://devdata.worldbank.org.proxy.lib.ohio-state.edu/dataonline/
Travel Services
7%
Net Exports
Poland’s international trade has shown improvement in the last
4 years. Net exports are moving toward the positive while
total imports continue to grow rapidly.
Net Exports In Billions
$ in U.S. Dollars
120
100
80
Exports
60
Imports
40
Net Exports
20
0
-20
1999
2000
2001
2002
Year
http://devdata.worldbank.org.proxy.lib.ohio-state.edu/dataonline/
2003
2004
2005
Poland & Hungary
 Poland & Hungary very similar paths of transition.
 Communism fell at almost same time (1989-1991)
 Both declared “shock therapy”
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Hungary’s much more gradual
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Led to a slower and less effective transition initially.
 Real wages plummeted in 1994-1995 bringing about a 2nd “shock
therapy”
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Rebounded the economy
Poland’s shock therapy was effective very quickly
 Modern Governments
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Poland- Republic
Hungary- Parliamentary Democracy
http://devdata.worldbank.org.proxy.lib.
ohio-state.edu/dataonline/
Inflation of Consum er Prices (annual %)
25.00
600.00
20.00
500.00
15.00
Hungary
Poland
10.00
% Inflation
% Unemployed
Unem ploym ent (% of Total Labor Force)
5.00
400.00
Hungary
300.00
Poland
200.00
100.00
-
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
02
20
00
19
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
-
Year
Year
GDP Per Capita
GDP Com pared Poland/Hungary
300,000,000,000.00
4,000.00
Hungary
3,000.00
Poland
2,000.00
GDP Value
5,000.00
1,000.00
250,000,000,000.00
200,000,000,000.00
Hungary GDP
150,000,000,000.00
100,000,000,000.00
Poland GDP
20
04
20
02
20
00
19
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
Year
http://devdata.worldbank.org.proxy.lib.ohio-state.edu/dataonline/
19
84
19
87
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
20
02
50,000,000,000.00
-
19
90
GDP Per Capita
6,000.00
Year
Trade % of GDP
Trade % of GDP
200.00
150.00
Hungary
100.00
Poland
50.00
20
02
20
00
19
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
-
Year
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
-
Poland
Year
http://devdata.worldbank.org.proxy.lib.ohio-state.edu/dataonline/
20
03
20
01
19
97
19
99
19
95
19
93
19
89
19
91
Hungary
19
87
19
85
FDI % of GDP
FDI % of GDP (annual %)