Transcript Document

Is the global recovery stalling?
John Walker
[email protected]
October 2010
Overview of the Oxford MT Model
Oxford Global
Macro Model
Oxford Global
Sectoral Model
Forecasts for major
macroeconomic
indicators across 175
economies:
Forecasts for output
across 85 sectors in
67 countries driven by:
• GDP
• Industrial production
• Investment
• Interest rates
• Exchange rate
• Inflation and costs
• Competitiveness
• Profitability
• Mix of demand – ie
consumption vs
investment
• Inter-sector supply
chain linkages – ‘inputoutput modelling’
• Sectoral
competitiveness
Global Machine
Tools Model
Forecasts investment
by sector, based on
sectoral output growth
and capacity utilisation,
and macro drivers,
such as interest rates
and profits
Sectoral output and
investment forecasts in
key client sectors are
then used to drive the
global forecast for
machine tools sales
Countries covered
 Americas
Brazil
Canada
Mexico
United States
India
Thailand
Japan
South Korea
Czech Rep
Italy
Spain
France
Poland
Switzerland
Germany
Russia
UK
 Asia
China
Taiwan
 Europe
Austria
Hungary
Slovakia
Turkey
Three key points
 There is still a very high level of uncertainty about the outlook
especially in the US and Europe: ie FEAR still rules
Bernanke on uncertainty
Statement to Senate Banking Committee, 22 July:
"Even as the Federal Reserve continues prudent planning for the
ultimate withdrawal of monetary policy accommodation, we also
recognise that the economic outlook remains unusually
uncertain.“
Keynote speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, 27 August:
“…macroeconomic projections are inherently uncertain, and the
economy remains vulnerable to unexpected developments.”
OXFORD ECONOMICS
FORECASTING RECORD
2007-2009
(average absolute forecast divergence
for real GDP growth)
OEF
USA
Eurozone
Japan
0.7
1.4
2.0
Note: Forecasts made in December for year ahead.
OXFORD ECONOMICS
FORECASTING RECORD
2007-2009
(average absolute forecast divergence
for real GDP growth)
OEF
USA
Eurozone
Japan
0.7
1.4
2.0
EIU
Global Ins.
IMF
OECD
Consens.
Note: Forecasts made in December for year ahead.
OXFORD ECONOMICS
FORECASTING RECORD
2007-2009
(average absolute forecast divergence
for real GDP growth)
USA
Eurozone
Japan
OEF
0.7
1.4
2.0
EIU
1.0
Global Ins.
0.7
IMF
1.6
OECD
1.1
Consens.
1.0
Note: Forecasts made in December for year ahead.
OXFORD ECONOMICS
FORECASTING RECORD
2007-2009
(average absolute forecast divergence
for real GDP growth)
USA
Eurozone
Japan
OEF
0.7
1.4
2.0
EIU
1.0
2.2
2.6
Global Ins.
0.7
1.7
2.4
IMF
1.6
2.2
2.9
OECD
1.1
1.8
2.7
Consens.
1.0
1.8
2.4
Note: Forecasts made in December for year ahead.
Three key points
 There is still a very high level of uncertainty about the outlook
especially in the US and Europe: ie FEAR still rules
 Crisis has been in part a story of two currency unions!!
The imbalances story times two
 US running current account
deficit of over $450billion
 China running current account
surplus of over $300 billion
 Intervention by central bank
leading to reserves rising on
average by over $300 billion
per annum in last five years
 No sign of any change in next
few years?
The imbalances story times two
 US running current account
deficit of over $450billion
 France, PIGS current account
deficit of over $300 billion
 China running current account
surplus of over $300 billion
 Germany Netherlands current
account surplus of $250 billion
 Intervention by central bank
leading to reserves rising on
average by over $300 billion
per annum in last five years
 Banks were lending to Greek
government, Spanish
companies and Irish banks as
offset to the above imbalances
 No sign of any change in next
few years?
 ECB/EU governments will now
fill the gap?
…Yuan is expected to slowly appreciate against $
China: Exchange and interest rates
%
US$
14
Exchange rate
(RHS)
9
F'cast
12
8
10
7
8
6
6
4
2
Loans interest rate
(LHS)
0
5
4
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: Oxford Economics
Worrying that trade imbalances widening again
World: Current account imbalances
$ billion
600
China
OPEC
400
200
Japan
0
-200
EU
-400
-600
US
-800
-1000
1990
Forecast
1994
Source: Oxford Economics
1998
2002
2006
2010
Three key points
 There is still a very high level of uncertainty about the outlook
especially in the US and Europe: ie FEAR still rules
 Crisis has been in part a story of two currency unions!!
 The recession was driven by the corporate sector and the
shape of the recovery will depend on how corporates react in
different countries
US: Sectoral indebtedness
% of GDP
130
120
Domestic financial
sector
110
100
90
Consumer
80
70
60
Non financial business
50
40
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
The recession wasn’t consumer driven in US…
US : Consumer spending
trough=100
108
1975Q1
106
104
1980Q3
2009Q2
102
100
1991Q1
98
1982Q4
96
94
2001Q4
92
90
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
Source : Oxford Economics
-1
0
1
2
3
Periods from trough
4
Nor were bank job cuts as bad as feared
Sectoral contribution to employment losses
Contribution to peak-to-trough change in employment, % pts
1
0
-1
-2
-3
Government
Other services
Finance/business
Industry
Construction
Agriculture
-4
-5
-6
-7
US
Japan
UK
Germany
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
France
Italy
Sharp decline in investment for the US
…and globally, then magnified through trade
Germany: Investment recoveries compared
100= GDP trough
115
113
2008-10
111
Early 1990s
109
107
105
103
101
99
Early 1980s
97
95
Q-5
Early 1970s
Q-4
Q-3
Q-2
Source: Oxford Economics
Q-1
Q0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
So corporates are now cash rich
World: PNFC financial balances
% of GDP, 4-quarter average
5
4
3
UK
2
1
0
-1
-2
US
-3
-4
Eurozone
-5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Oxford Economics\Haver Analytics
And also in China
China : Corporate profits
% of GDP
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
Source: Oxford Economics
Who will lead the recovery?
 Governments!!
 Consumers!!
 Companies?
 Emerging markets?
…households constrained by debt…
Household debt
% of income
250
Ireland
200
UK
150
US
100
Germany
50
Eurozon
Eurozone
e
Spain
0
1995
1997
1999
Source : Oxford Economics
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
…the weak labour market…
World: Unemployment
%
12
France
Forecast
11
10
Eurozon
e
9
8
UK
7
Germany
6
5
US
4
3
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source : Oxford Economics
…and squeeze on real wages as well as higher taxes
Real wages
Annual % change
6
Forecast
5
4
3
UK
US
2
1
0
-1
Eurozone
-2
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Source : Oxford Economics
So consumers will lag rather than lead recovery
…non-financials all cash rich
Non financial corporate balance
% of GDP, 4QMA
15
Japan
10
UK
5
0
France
-5
Germany
US
-10
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Oxford Economics
Corporate surpluses normally get spent in US…
US: Investment and corporate money
% year
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Real corporate
broad money
Nonresidential
investment
-25
1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
…and elsewhere
UK: Corporate liquidity and investment
% year
50
40
30
Business Investment
20
10
0
-10
-20
Real PNFC M4
-30
1970
1976
1982
1988
1994
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
2000
2006
We are seeing some recovery in M&A
World: M&A
US$ bn
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
Source : Dealogic/Thomson Reuters
2004
2006
2008
2010
Jan-Jul
ann.
What might hold companies back this time?
 Unusual uncertainty
 Excess capacity
 Debt
 Credit constraints
What might hold companies back this time?
 Unusual uncertainty
 Excess capacity
 Debt
 Credit constraints
Excess capacity holding back investment
US: Capacity utilisation and real nonresidential investment
Eurozone: Capacity utilisation and real nonLow capacity
discourages new investment
residential
investment
% year
% point
90
15
Capacity
utilisation
(LHS)
85
10
5
80
0
-5
Non residential
investment
(RHS)
75
-10
70
-15
65
1995
-20
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Source: Oxford Economics, Haver Analytics
2007
2009
What might hold companies back this time?
 Unusual uncertainty
 Excess capacity
 Debt
 Credit constraints
Companies seeking to pay down debt
What might hold companies back this time?
 Unusual uncertainty
 Excess capacity
 Debt
 Credit constraints
Corporate lending very weak…
World: Lending to PNFCs*
% year
28
UK
24
20
16
12
8
Eurozone
4
0
-4
-8
-12
US
-16
-20 *3 month moving average
-24
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Haver Analytics
…although that is a demand as well as supply issue
World: Firms' demand for credit for investment
% net balance
30
20
10
0
US
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
UK
-60
Eurozone
-70
-80
2007
2008
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
2009
2010
Forecast takes a hopeful view on investment
But still subdued recovery for major economies
Emerging markets leading recovery?
Emergers leading recovery despite slowing in some
BRICS: Industrial production
% year
25
20
China
15
India
10
5
0
Brazil
-5
Russia
-10
-15
3 month moving average
-20
2005
2006
Source: Haver Analytics
2007
2008
2009
2010
Emerging markets leading recovery?
 Export markets slowing
 But domestic demand is strong
… domestic demand generally solid
Brazil, Russia & China: Retail sales volumes
% year
20
16
China
Russia
12
8
Brazil
4
0
-4
-8
3 month moving average
-12
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Haver Analytics
…and domestic demand is solid in the rest of Asia
Emerging Asia: Consumer spending
% year
15
Thailand
12
Malaysia
9
6
3
0
-3
Taiwan
Korea
-6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Haver Analytics
Emerging markets leading recovery?
 Export markets slowing
 But domestic demand is strong
 Still scope for further stimulus
Low debt levels gives plenty of fiscal scope…
China: Government budget balance and debt
% of GDP
1
Government balance
(LHS)
% of GDP
28
Forecast
24
0
20
-1
16
12
-2
Government debt
(RHS)
8
-3
4
-4
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: Oxford Economics /CEIC
…and credit taps can turn on quickly if needed…
China: Total RMB loans
12-month % change
36
32
28
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Haver
CEIC Analytics
…and are already flowing in Brazil
Brazil: Bank lending
% year
40
35
30
Total private
sector
25
20
15
10
5
0
Industry & commerce sectors
-5
-10
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Haver Analytics
…& capacity utilisation is high in several emergers
Korea: Manufacturing operating rate
2005=100 (seasonally adjusted)
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
1995
1997
1999
2001
OxfordAnalytics
Economics/CEIC
Source: Haver
2003
2005
2007
2009
Oxford Economics’ forecast
World GDP Growth
% Change on Previous Year
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
US
0.0
-2.6
2.6
2.5
3.5
3.8
-1.2
-5.2
2.6
1.1
2.1
2.0
0.3
-4.0
1.5
1.3
1.7
2.0
Germany
0.7
-4.7
3.1
1.8
1.7
2.0
France
0.1
-2.5
1.5
1.6
2.0
2.1
-1.3
-5.1
0.9
1.0
1.2
1.4
-0.1
-5.0
1.6
2.0
2.7
3.2
China
9.6
9.1
9.7
9.0
9.2
8.8
India
7.4
6.7
8.2
8.3
9.0
8.8
Other Asia
4.0
2.0
6.6
5.4
6.2
6.0
Mexico
1.5
-6.6
4.7
4.5
5.4
4.8
Brazil
5.2
-0.2
7.3
4.5
5.1
4.6
Other Latin America
4.8
-0.6
4.5
4.0
4.7
4.3
Eastern Europe
4.8
-5.6
3.1
3.7
5.3
5.5
MENA
4.7
1.8
7.0
7.4
7.0
6.6
World
1.4
-2.0
3.6
3.3
4.0
4.2
World (PPP)
2.8
-0.7
4.5
4.2
4.9
5.0
Japan
Eurozone
of which:
Italy
UK
Corporate recovery
Outlook still highly uncertain
Financial sector recovery
Outlook still highly uncertain
Corporate recovery
Oxford forecast
■ Gradual rise in business confidence
encourages corporates to invest
■ But weak banks combined with excess
capacity limit scale of investment
recovery
■ Consumer spending recovery limited
by pace of job growth and fiscal
retrenchment
■ But recovery strong enough that fiscal
crisis remains contained
Financial sector recovery
Outlook still highly uncertain
Corporate recovery
Oxford forecast
Renewed global boom
■ Gradual rise in business confidence
encourages corporates to invest
■ But weak banks combined with excess
capacity limit scale of investment
recovery
■ Consumer spending recovery limited
by pace of job growth and fiscal
retrenchment
■ But recovery strong enough that fiscal
crisis remains contained
■ Strong corporate liquidity feeds into new
investment boom
■ Faster growth boosts business and
consumer confidence, and trade
multiplier magnifies upturn
■ Bank balance sheets improve quickly and
credit growth resumes
■ Strong growth boosts tax revenues/cuts
social security payments, helping fiscal
consolidation
Financial sector recovery
Outlook still highly uncertain
Corporate recovery
Oxford forecast
Renewed global boom
■ Gradual rise in business confidence
encourages corporates to invest
■ But weak banks combined with excess
capacity limit scale of investment
recovery
■ Consumer spending recovery limited
by pace of job growth and fiscal
retrenchment
■ But recovery strong enough that fiscal
crisis remains contained
■ Strong corporate liquidity feeds into new
investment boom
■ Faster growth boosts business and
consumer confidence, and trade
multiplier magnifies upturn
■ Bank balance sheets improve quickly and
credit growth resumes
■ Strong growth boosts tax revenues/cuts
social security payments, helping fiscal
consolidation
Sub-par recovery
■ Business optimism remains low and
corporates continue to hoard cash
■ Investment and job growth is modest as
capacity is underutilised
■ Monetary policy supports banking sector
but fiscal coffers are empty
■ Easier credit conditions mean benefits of
loose monetary policy feeds through to a
stronger housing and consumer recovery
Financial sector recovery
Corporates are key
US: Business investment
$2005 billions
650
600
550
500
Base
Renewed boom
Sub-par recovery
450
400
350
300
250
200
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Oxford Economics
Scenarios for the global economy
Alternative GDP growth forecasts
2009
2010
2011
2012
Oxford Forecast (45%)
US
Eurozone
China
World
-2.6
-4.0
9.1
-0.7
2.6
1.5
9.7
4.5
2.5
1.3
9.0
4.2
3.5
1.7
9.2
4.9
Renewed boom (20%)
US
Eurozone
China
World
-2.6
-4.0
9.1
-0.7
2.8
1.7
10.4
4.8
3.7
2.4
10.7
5.5
4.2
2.8
10.4
5.9
Sub-par recovery (25%)
US
Eurozone
China
World
-2.6
-4.0
9.1
-0.7
2.4
1.2
8.8
4.1
1.8
0.8
7.2
3.3
2.2
0.9
7.5
3.7
Outlook still highly uncertain
Corporate recovery
Oxford forecast
Renewed global boom
■ Gradual rise in business confidence
encourages corporates to invest
■ But weak banks combined with excess
capacity limit scale of investment
recovery
■ Consumer spending recovery limited
by pace of job growth and fiscal
retrenchment
■ But recovery strong enough that fiscal
crisis remains contained
■ Strong corporate liquidity feeds into new
investment boom
■ Faster growth boosts business and
consumer confidence, and trade
multiplier magnifies upturn
■ Bank balance sheets improve quickly and
credit growth resumes
■ Strong growth boosts tax revenues/cuts
social security payments, helping fiscal
consolidation
Sub-par recovery
■ Business optimism remains low and
corporates continue to hoard cash
■ Investment and job growth is modest as
capacity is underutilised
■ Monetary policy supports banking sector
but fiscal coffers are empty
■ Easier credit conditions mean benefits of
loose monetary policy feeds through to a
stronger housing and consumer recovery
Financial sector recovery
Outlook still highly uncertain
Corporate recovery
Oxford forecast
Renewed global boom
■ Gradual rise in business confidence
encourages corporates to invest
■ But weak banks combined with excess
capacity limit scale of investment
recovery
■ Consumer spending recovery limited
by pace of job growth and fiscal
retrenchment
■ But recovery strong enough that fiscal
crisis remains contained
■ Strong corporate liquidity feeds into new
investment boom
■ Faster growth boosts business and
consumer confidence, and trade
multiplier magnifies upturn
■ Bank balance sheets improve quickly and
credit growth resumes
■ Strong growth boosts tax revenues/cuts
social security payments, helping fiscal
consolidation
Sub-par recovery
Renewed crisis
■ Threat of double-dip means renewed
slump in asset prices as Eurozone
sovereign debt crisis re-emerges
■ Pressure to cut budget deficits rapidly
in all major economies
■ Rising unemployment and business
failures feed back into banking
■ Limited scope for monetary policy
offset
■ Business optimism remains low and
corporates continue to hoard cash
■ Investment and job growth is modest as
capacity is underutilised
■ Monetary policy supports banking sector
but fiscal coffers are empty
■ Easier credit conditions mean benefits of
loose monetary policy feeds through to a
stronger housing and consumer recovery
Financial sector recovery
Growth in industrial production of machine tools'
customer sectors
2009
2010
2011
2012
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
Motor
Vehicles
Metal
Products
Aerospace
Source: Oxford Economics
Mech
Comp & Elec equip Consumer Intermediate
engineering electronics
goods
goods
Industrial outlook
…
Unit car sales & production†
3mth mav, mn
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
Sales
1.8
1.6
Production
1.4
† Covering the US, Western Europe & Japan
1.2
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
Source: J D Power/Oxford Economics
2000
2004
2008
Aerospace orders now below deliveries
Airbus & Boeing: Orders & deliveries
No. of aircraft
3,000
No. of aircraft
1,000
2,600
900
Deliveries
(RHS)
2,200
800
1,800
700
1,400
600
1,000
500
Orders
(LHS)
600
200
1990
400
300
1993
1996
1999
2002
Source: Company reports and forecasts
Investment outlook
2005
2008
Motor Vehicle Investment
Motor vehicle investment
% yoy
US
8.3%
Rest of
Europe
20.7%
30
20
Motor vehicle investment 2009
Asia
Japan
23.4%
10
0
-10
Rest of Asia
13.5%
Americas
-20
Europe
-30
Rest of
Americas
8.5%
-40
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source : Oxford Economics
Source: Oxford Economics
Investment outlook
China
16.2%
Germany
9.5%
General machinery output and investment
General machinery investment 2009
General machinery output
Rest of
Europe, 8.0%
% yoy
30
Rest of Asia,
5.7%
20
Rest of
Americas,
2.0%
Asia
10
US, 42.9%
Europe
0
Germany,
3.6%
-10
-20
Americas
China, 23.2%
-30
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Oxford Economics
Japan, 14.5%
Source : Oxford Economics
Investment outlook
Special Purpose Machinery – output and investment
Special purpose machinery output
Special purpose machinery investment 2009
Rest of
Europe,
15.1%
% yoy
40
30
US, 11.8%
Asia
Japan, 24.9%
20
Rest of Asia,
15.1%
10
0
Rest of
Americas,
3.1%
-10
-20
Americas
Europe
Germany,
4.9%
-30
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Oxford Economics
China, 25.0%
Source : Oxford Economics
Investment outlook
Oxford Economics forecast
Machine Tools Sales
% change on previous year
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
China
Germany
Japan
US
Italy
Korea
Brazil
Taiwan
India
Russia
Mexico
France
Switzerland
Spain
UK
-2.6
-37.4
-38.5
-52.7
-44.3
-21.0
-22.4
-43.0
-33.9
-26.7
-20.5
-46.6
-44.0
-49.9
-34.0
18.2
-12.3
3.6
-0.4
10.1
14.8
17.2
18.1
15.1
4.0
11.2
0.2
-16.4
-15.6
-19.3
15.1
29.9
21.5
36.2
11.7
21.9
22.7
22.6
25.7
22.5
19.9
19.4
20.7
10.4
19.7
20.1
18.6
18.0
25.5
14.6
15.4
15.3
14.1
30.5
25.5
15.7
17.1
16.1
15.9
22.8
19.1
13.9
9.2
12.0
11.3
10.5
15.3
10.1
22.7
15.5
9.7
14.8
15.4
16.9
15.4
17.1
9.9
7.2
10.0
11.3
8.5
15.3
8.1
15.7
10.5
8.7
9.8
11.8
19.9
11.4
Americas
Asia
Europe
World
-44.1
-15.1
-44.5
-30.7
11.1
17.9
-0.8
11.4
27.9
17.4
21.8
19.9
20.5
19.4
18.2
19.3
12.5
16.8
14.1
15.5
11.2
14.6
11.1
13.2
Sharp decline followed by big rebound
US machine tools orders annual growth
% yr
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
2005
2006
2007
2008
Source : Oxford Economics
US orders
2009
2010
Orders growth will slow next year
US machine tools orders annual growth
% yr
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
2005
Forecast
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source : Oxford Economics
US orders
2010
2011
Quarterly USMTC orders forecast…
US metalworking machine tools orders, USMTC
Forming machine tools, $bn
0.145
0.125
Cutting machine tools, $bn
1.2
Forming machine tools
(LHS)
Forecast
1.1
1
0.105
0.9
0.8
0.085
0.7
0.065
0.045
0.025
2004
0.6
0.5
Cutting machine tools
(RHS)
0.4
0.3
2005
2006
2007
2008
Source : Oxford Economics
US orders
2009
2010
2011
General regional rebound in 2010
Growth in value of orders for cutting machines
by region
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
Total
Northeast
South
Midwest
Central
West
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
2009
Source: Oxford Economics
2010
2011
Very different story with forming orders
Growth in value of orders for forming machines
by region
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
Total
Northeast
South
Midwest
Central
West
-40%
-50%
-60%
-70%
-80%
2009
Source: Oxford Economics
2010
2011
Conclusions
 Policy stimulus, turn in inventory cycle and rebound in world
trade drove strong recovery
 Global economic recovery should continue but there are
growing downside risks
 Machine tool orders up sharply from lows. Sales have so far
been more subdued but these should now start to pick up.
 MT sales are forecast to rebound sharply over the next few
years in both developed and emerging markets
 Strong rebound in developed economy markets follows very
deep recession but focus of global MT market still increasingly
moving toward emerging economies
Machine Tool Orders Forecasts
(Annual percentage changes)
USMTC: cutting
USMTC: forming
USMTC: total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
26.2
-0.6
23.0
7.5
-9.7
7.9
-2.1
40.3
-0.6
-61.2
-52.8
-60.3
67.0
-28.4
54.1
27.7
14.7
26.9
Source: AMT
US orders